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Discussion Starter #1
A few hours before the drawing of lots for the FO, the question can be asked: Should we worry about Rafael Nadal in the FO?

Indeed, the Spaniard did not reassure in Rome. He was swept away by Schwartzman in 2 sets, as he had been against Fognini in Monaco in 2019. Except that in 2019, it had taken 3 weeks to settle in ideal weather conditions. Here, he will not have 3 weeks but 10 days with only 3 matches in the legs and unfavorable conditions.

The cut having stopped at the end of August, theoretically, he could have that:

3R: Krajinovic, Busta, De Minaur, Struff, Bashilavshilii, Evans, Coric.
4R: Rublev, Anderson, Wawrinka, Khachanov.
QF: Tsitsipas, Zverev, Berrettini, Monfils.
SF: Medvedev, Thiem.

In the 4R, he could also have: Shapovalov, Garin, Dimitrov, Raonic.

A priori, no Goffin / Schwartzman before the QF. In the first rounds, there may be some traps like Ruud, Opelka, Cilic, Kecmanovic and others once we know that the ground will be heavy and the ball will squirt less favoring other styles of play.

So yes, it's Roland Garros, yes, a priori, it has 3 rounds to settle, and yes Rome was only a repeat. Nevertheless, the weather, the lack of rhythm, and the pressure of a 20th Major doesn't play in his favor. What do you think about it?
 

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I am actually very concerned. Yesterday it was a very wet day here in Paris. Going forward, it might well be cloudy and rainy over the next two weeks. I admit that it has not always been sunny in Paris in late May/early June. But that period is close to the summer solstice which means more daytime. Not anymore, which means night sessions with the kind of conditions that Rafa struggles a little with. Add to that the lack of match practice and the lack of confidence building tournament victories, I would say that it's going to be difficult for our guy.

He will still be hard to put away though. For example, this year's AO had slow, low bouncing courts and it still took Thiem 4 hours to take him out in a very tight encounter.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
I am actually very concerned. Yesterday it was a very wet day here in Paris. Going forward, it might well be cloudy and rainy over the next two weeks. I admit that it has not always been sunny in Paris in late May/early June. But that period is close to the summer solstice which means more daytime. Not anymore, which means night sessions with the kind of conditions that Rafa struggles a little with. Add to that the lack of match practice and the lack of confidence building tournament victories, I would say that it's going to be difficult for our guy.

He will still be hard to put away though. For example, this year's AO had slow, low bouncing courts and it still took Thiem 4 hours to take him out in a very tight encounter.
For sure, but he had his confidence of the enf of 2019 at the AO. Don鈥檛 forget that all his matches at the start of 2020 were very poorly.


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He miscalculated.

The changing conditions mean he should have been in optimal shape, match-ready entering the tournament, and we saw he clearly isn't.

I don't know what's going to happen; i believe there's 60% chances he loses in the semis.
 

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Considering conditions and shape - yes.Thiem is the main fav,for sure.Both Djoko and Rafa will lose to him in semis,imo.
 

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He has built up a rhythm over the last 15 years.

The tournament at a different time of the year, as well as with virtually no crowds, will certainly disrupt that rhythm.

He is vulnerable for sure.
 

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Spring or Autumn, it's still the Chatrier.
His home.

Nadal will be quiet until 1/2 if Thiem is in his draw.

And even quieter if Thiem is with Djokovic.
 

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I鈥檓 pretty sure Thiem will be exausted of his first GS at USO. I don鈥檛 know if he will go through in this tournament.
This is what I feel as well, even though I like Thiem. It's not easy bouncing back both physically and mentally after an exhausting, nerve-wracking slam victory. In fact, I wouldn't be concerned if Domi is in Rafa's half. I am more concerned about meeting guys like Diego, Fognini, Goffin, Zverev, Shapo before the SF.
 

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Due to the conditions and form concerns his chances are certainly lower than usually at the FO. I will give him 90% of winning instead of the usual 99%.
 

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Champion until he is not. I dont see his loss against Schwartzman any worse than the ones against Thiem and Fognini, Cuevas, Ferrer, Almagro, etc...

I cant see anyone else than Djokovic giving him tough time.
 

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Huge, fluffy, heavy balls plus rain and cold... no good at all.
 

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There can only be one winner. In other words we should be worried about everyone that is not named Zverev.
 

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I worry he might play poorly and therefore ruin the competitiveness and the entertainment level of the tournament. Other than that, no.
 

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Nah, he'll be fine. I'd be surprised if he loses more than two sets in the whole tournament.
 
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