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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
IMO, he's the only player who has a chance against Djokovic. Everyone else:

Nadal- seems done. Can't see him just showing up at the FO and turning it on when he's been playing like shit.

Murray - dude never won a clay title, sucks on the surface.

Wawrinka - marriage/personal issues, just got smoked at Monte Carlo

Fed - Too old on his worst surface, maybe the 2% chance he becomes JesusFed for a match but very unlikely.

Ferrer - LOL. No chance against Djokovic.

Berdych - Complete mental midget - actually played really well against Djoko in the final but choked big time. If he couldn't win playing his best in a BO3, has no chance.

Raonic - Actually very underrated on clay, serve still very effective and gives more time to hit his strokes. Still, no chance with his vastly inferior ground game compared to Djokovic.

Nishikori already beat Djoko at US last year and played him tough a few times, including bageling him in 2011 (injured Djoko, but still) :wavey:
 

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Your whole proposal is based on his chances against Djokovic (which aren't overly favorable to begin with). The problem is it neglects to account for everyone who he's capable of losing to (besides Novak).

Wawrinka, Berdych, Nadal, just to name a few. It's meaningless whether or not he can beat Djokovic if he doesn't even make it to him, so no, I don't see him as a second favorite.

Let's see if he can take Barcelona in Nadal's absence first.
 

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Nadal is still second favorite. Nishikori is just as prone to be upset as Nadal is, the difference being that Nadal has proven himself at the French Open.

It should be something like this:

Djokovic





Nadal





Federer

Ferrer
Murray
Berdych
Monfils

Nishikori
Wawrinka

Raonic
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Your whole proposal is based on his chances against Djokovic (which aren't overly favorable to begin with). The problem is it neglects to account for everyone who he's capable of losing to (besides Novak).

Wawrinka, Berdych, Nadal, just to name a few. It's meaningless whether or not he can beat Djokovic if he doesn't even make it to him, so no, I don't see him as a second favorite.

Let's see if he can take Barcelona in Nadal's absence first.
Yeah, I didn't think about this. I guess my thread would have been better titled "Biggest threat to Djokovic"
 

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This is Djokovic's year for RG, his biggest chance perhaps. Nadal will still be next favourite given his history at RG (see last year).
In any case, I'd prefer Nishikori not to be second favourite and just to play as the underdog. He does better that way. Even though what you say is true, I'm just going to let him go with the ride. And those who ride with him might be pleasantly surprised. Nishikori has 0 pts to defend at RG this year, and if he is healthy and fresh, I can see him doing damage (no injury concerns this year yet). That said, he's never been past R4 of RG, but there's a first for everything!

I'd actually think Nishikori might have a better chance defeating Nadal than Djokovic based on game styles, but USO tells us anything can happen. Nishikori will need to be playing aggressive and open the court as much as he can, and obviously serve and return well. The upcoming RG seedings will be interesting indeed to see where Nadal lies.
 

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Yeah, I didn't think about this. I guess my thread would have been better titled "Biggest threat to Djokovic"
To be fair, despite the differences in this match-up that should work in Djokovic's favor on clay, I actually think you might have a good case under those terms.
 

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Let's not forget that Rafa lost early in MC and Barcelona last year too. After that he got lucky in the Madrid final and got beaten by Nole in Rome. And he still turned it up for RG. So in my book Rafa is still the favourite even though he plays crappy tennis at the moment.

If he has some bad losses in Madrid and Rome aswell he could draw some very tough opponents early at RG due to seedings and make his path to the title very difficult.
 

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Let's not forget that Rafa lost early in MC and Barcelona last year too. After that he got lucky in the Madrid final and got beaten by Nole in Rome. And he still turned it up for RG. So in my book Rafa is still the favourite even though he plays crappy tennis at the moment.
Yup, exactly, it would be nuts to write him off, besides, sweeping all clay tournaments in the season had to stop eventually.
 

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Nadal is the favourite, then closely followed by Djoko, if by some chance Nishikori makes it to the Sfs, then he has a decent shot at upsetting Nadal or Djoko but I don't even think he gets there. He's been losing to some pedestrian opponents this year and nearly blew it against Querrey and Harrison in Memphis (well pedestrian's not the right word to describe Lopez, Ferrer and Isner). He doesn't even seem like the kind of player to take advantage of a good draw either like Raonic, Berdych can. Still, I'm hoping he finds his Madrid form, he's been pretty damn good overall in Barcelona bar that 2nd set hiccup against Barista.
 

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no, not at all

he's shown he's vulnerable to flaming out in slams even after a great build up.

his record in grand slams is actually pretty mediocre. he's also only made the 2nd week of the french once so...as much as i love him he's not 2nd favorite for the french
 

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Nadal is still second favorite. Nishikori is just as prone to be upset as Nadal is, the difference being that Nadal has proven himself at the French Open.

It should be something like this:

Djokovic





Nadal





Federer

Ferrer
Murray
Berdych
Monfils

Nishikori
Wawrinka

Raonic
about this except i might move wawrinka past him and put raonic closer to him
 

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We have prime Murray who never won anything on clay. Federer who isnt motivated enough maybe in 2 years he will finaly realise what a threat Djokovic really is.
Nadal who plays some of his best tennis, but doesnt hold the mental edge anymore against smaller flies.
Nishikori who beat Djokovic thanks to sponsor interference. Wawrinka who does have personal life issues atm, but I have a feeling this will rather fuel than destroy him mentally.

I would rank them in the following order after Djokovic.

2. Berdych
3. Nadal
4. Wawrinka
5. Federer
6. Murray
7. Nishikori
 

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We have prime Murray who never won anything on clay. Federer who isnt motivated enough maybe in 2 years he will finaly realise what a threat Djokovic really is.
Nadal who plays some of his best tennis, but doesnt hold the mental edge anymore against smaller flies.
Nishikori who beat Djokovic thanks to sponsor interference. Wawrinka who does have personal life issues atm, but I have a feeling this will rather fuel than destroy him mentally.

I would rank them in the following order after Djokovic.

2. Berdych
3. Nadal
4. Wawrinka
5. Federer
6. Murray
7. Nishikori
lol, someone's been listening to too many truthers. and ranking Berdych above Nadal to win the only clay slam is again a giant lol.
 

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Top 10 picks by bookies.

Djokovich > Nadal > Nishikori > Murray > Federer > Wawrinka > Ferrer > Berdych > Dimitrov > Monflis

Unfortunately my objectively opinion is almost the same. :(
 

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He's the third favorite. It's like this

Nadal

Djokovic



Nishikori
Federer
Ferrer
Berdych
Murray
Monfils
Raonic
Wawrinka
 

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Yes, he needs to avoid only new top10 Martin Klizan in first round.

Just look what happened, when he avoided Daniel Evans at US Open last year... :) :)
 
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