[Guest]

It's late here but just a quick look ahead to both semi finals on Saturday and from a Spanish point of view both men have drawn their ideal man IMO.

Whilst I would be all over Nadal to beat Federer if they had played in the final (purely on the basis that the best of 5 format suits Nadal in this instance) I think over the 3 set format Federer would have to fancy his chances a lot more. I have no doubt in my mind that he went out there tonight against Roddick to make sure he topped the group thereby giving him a shot at Nadal in best of 3 format. For the moment I'll sit on the fence here - tough to get a good read of how both players are really playing this week mostly down to the opposition and their respective motivation levels but what I do know is that neither player is playing anywhere close to his best tennis. Federer currently at $1.30/Nadal $4.10 at Pinny.

The other SF for me is quite black and white. If Ferrer continues down the path he has been this week he will win and quite comfortably as well. Any confidence that Roddick built up during the week has just been crushed by the clinic Federer put on. Both have split their matches this season but Ferrer is playing at a different level right now especially the return of serve where he is abusing his opponent's second serve. Roddick will need to serve as well as he can to make this one competitive. The books have rightly installed Ferrer as a clear favourite of approx $1.65.

 

[Jaap]

Think it will be a Nadal vs Ferrer final.

Fed is far too short at 1.3 and will be betting against that accordingly.

Ferrer is a bit shorter than I would have hoped, but he will still IMO so I will take them odds.

 

[Guest]

Btw one main observation I had of the second match tonight was Federer's net play. It's pretty easy to forget only because these days for whatever reason he rarely approaches the net, his net play is top class and tonight it was the best I have seen him volley in a while.

 

[Julio]

The books have rightly installed Ferrer as a clear favourite of approx $1.65.

At this price, i prefer to go for the outsider.

 

[Jaap]

If people are willing to bet on Federer to beat Nadal at 1.3, you might as well bet on him at 1.54 to win the whole tournament instead, as he will not be losing to Roddick or Ferrer in the final.

 

[Julio]

Btw one main observation I had of the second match tonight was Federer's net play. It's pretty easy to forget only because these days for whatever reason he rarely approaches the net, his net play is top class and tonight it was the best I have seen him volley in a while.

It's maybe because Andy is not able to do a nice passing : he chooses right side, then left side, right again etc. Stupid choices for shots than never go below the net like Nadal does. Nadal knows how to play Federer when M. Rolex goes to the net : big top spin on feet.

 

[danielj]

I fancy Roddick v Federer final.

Ferrer is playing very well at the moment but hes not the best indoor player around in truth, i think both players playing at their best = american win.

 

[Olao]

Ferrer to beat Roddick @1.65 (vc bet, Fonbet and others)

Bad G said the most, I'll add a couple of things:

* Roddick will have to serve close to his max but even if he should succeed in doing this (which I doubt as Ferrer will put a lot of pressure on his (second) serve), Ferrer is among the best at reading/returning serves which should limit this edge.
* If Ferrer plays any where near the level he's shown this week, Roddick will be beaten clearly (worst case: crushed) from the baseline. I can see Ferrer retrieving a lot of Andy's attempted winners, and I can see Andy's weak bh cross-court slice teeing it up a lot for Ferrer's very solid inside-out and dtl forehands.
* I see a huge difference in mental skills/state in this situation. Ferrer more confident than ever (coming off two slow starts against Nadal and Gasquet btw) vs Roddick who had some confidence from two wins against two of the weakest players in the field, and just as many thought this was the time a zoned Roddick could beat Federer, his skills were not only revealed, they were put up on Shanghai posters and spelled out in clown'ish behaviour.
* Career-best form vs nice form after a longer break - it has shown so far and I think it will tomorrow as well.
* The difference in class between these two players has been high enough to back 1.65.

In conclusion, I would say that Andy needs to serve max and hit a lot of baseline winners while Ferrer needs to drop seriously in level and make tons of ue. But that drop did not come after the Nadal win which it could have logically (on the contrary, one might say...) so why should we expect it to come here? Ferrer doesn't look tired at all - imo he looks very ready to reach a final he knows he should be a part of.

Lay Federer @1.33 at Betfair with a view to trade

To be perfectly honest, the price is ridiculous given the situation (esp.ly in a trading perspective) and this is where trading value becomes high. A few reasons below.

* Fed stepped up today and showed his class but that performance does not erase his poor shows vs Gonzalez and Davydenko. The market makes the assumptions that he will play just as well tomorrow and that his net approach game will be too sharp for Nadal, yet the market forgets imo that you have to see Fed's performance tomorrow in the light of the much harder opposition he will face. And regarding Fed's renowned "step-up skills" - they did not show vs Nalbandian at two occasions, did they?
* Fed stepped up today but Nadal stepped up yesterday playing much better than vs Ferrer. His ground strokes vs Djokovic were flatter, harder and more aggressive and he looked like a contender on the up-trend, finding better form as the event progresses.
* Nadal showed great retrieving vs Djokovic and altho Fed's pressure will be different, Fed is going to hit quite a few times before the ball is dead increasing the risk of ue.
* The intensity in the matches between Fed and Nadal will make this a lot more open than 1.33/4.0
* If you look at the 13 matches between the pair of them, only 2 have been lineary trains to 1.01'ish odds for Fed so mathematically, it is very likely indeed that Fed will trade significantly higher than 1.33.
* Both are very motivated, of course, and might bring out some of the very best in the opponent. Nadal is still 8-5 and while Fed will be highly motivated to close the gap and show who's the world no 1, Nadal will die on court to reach a Spanish final where he can get revenge over Ferrer after two straight losses + the small, symbolic defeat in Zaragoza.

I will personally trade this one very carefully and get out early if I get the feeling that Fed will be too dominant for Nadal, and despite high trading value I would recommend small to medium stakes (1.5% invested myself) because Fed did improve dramatically today.

Hopefully, it will be a cracker.

GL

 

[Julio]

Ferrer to beat Roddick @1.65
Lay Federer @1.33 at Betfair with a view to trade

Agree with both. Good luck mate.

 

[Jaap]

Yeah, Fed should trade higher than 1.33. In all their matches, Fed has rarely won comfortable - possibly last year at this same event being the only time and even then, Nadal had his chances. That remains the only match where Nadal has failed to take at least a set off Fed.

 

[callitasicit]

Let's not forget that Nadal is not 100% right now, from what I understand he is far from that. I think Federer has something to prove here, he really wants to face Nadal so he can prove that he is still the best in the world! I know the odds aren't great but perhaps there is a reason for that.

 

[A_Skywalker]

Nadal at @4.10 for me. Thrash him my son.

 

[Julio]

Let's not forget that Nadal is not 100% right now, from what I understand he is far from that. I think Federer has something to prove here, he really wants to face Nadal so he can prove that he is still the best in the world! I know the odds aren't great but perhaps there is a reason for that.

Don't forget that Federer is not at his best too. Remember last year : Federer was at his best level, Nadal struggled and swiss "only" won by a "6-4 7-5". Roger knew that he had won the tourney having beaten Nadal.
Remember of this : http://www.masters-cup.com/4/photogallery/2006/dayseven/76.jpg
For me, Roger will not win this time.

 

[stable unit]

Ferrer to beat Roddick @1.65 (vc bet, Fonbet and others)

Bad G said the most, I'll add a couple of things:

* Roddick will have to serve close to his max but even if he should succeed in doing this (which I doubt as Ferrer will put a lot of pressure on his (second) serve), Ferrer is among the best at reading/returning serves which should limit this edge.
* If Ferrer plays any where near the level he's shown this week, Roddick will be beaten clearly (worst case: crushed) from the baseline. I can see Ferrer retrieving a lot of Andy's attempted winners, and I can see Andy's weak bh cross-court slice teeing it up a lot for Ferrer's very solid inside-out and dtl forehands.
* I see a huge difference in mental skills/state in this situation. Ferrer more confident than ever (coming off two slow starts against Nadal and Gasquet btw) vs Roddick who had some confidence from two wins against two of the weakest players in the field, and just as many thought this was the time a zoned Roddick could beat Federer, his skills were not only revealed, they were put up on Shanghai posters and spelled out in clown'ish behaviour.
* Career-best form vs nice form after a longer break - it has shown so far and I think it will tomorrow as well.
* The difference in class between these two players has been high enough to back 1.65.

In conclusion, I would say that Andy needs to serve max and hit a lot of baseline winners while Ferrer needs to drop seriously in level and make tons of ue. But that drop did not come after the Nadal win which it could have logically (on the contrary, one might say...) so why should we expect it to come here? Ferrer doesn't look tired at all - imo he looks very ready to reach a final he knows he should be a part of.

Sorry to copy you, but i was writing my preview and it's pretty similar to this.
100% agree here with you, would be very suprised to see Arod come through tomorrow.

Max bet on Ferrer 5 [email protected]

GL all

 

[soteke]

posted it in the other thread

going for rafa over fed lay @1.3, 0.6 units to win 2 units

 

[Horatio Caine]

I agree with all of the people thinking that Ferrer will win...but I'm not going to risk it at the price offered (currently 1.60)...was hoping for 1.70+.

If Ferru can get Roddick's serves back into play, Duck is in serious trouble if he doesn't take the initiative in the rallies. His only hope is to play super-aggressive tennis and serve well...if he can limit his errors, he might be able to get over the line (e.g. Calleri and Lopez, in the last 4 weeks).

 

[callitasicit]

Don't forget that Federer is not at his best too. Remember last year : Federer was at his best level, Nadal struggled and swiss "only" won by a "6-4 7-5". Roger knew that he had won the tourney having beaten Nadal.
Remember of this : http://www.masters-cup.com/4/photogallery/2006/dayseven/76.jpg
For me, Roger will not win this time.

I am referring to his physical condition not mental. Nadal is hurting right now and Federer I believe will win this match. Federer should also win this tournament.

 

[sports freak]

I am referring to his physical condition not mental. Nadal is hurting right now and Federer I believe will win this match. Federer should also win this tournament.

Agree on Fed X,the guy doesnt want to lose i feel!!The $$$$ prize money is too much too past up for the winner Ferrer is onsong,while im not too sure if Andy wants another pasting,60/40 Ferrer and the odds are about right!!

 

[BostonBrian]

Ferrer over Roddick...

 

[Jimnik]

Where did you guys get those odds for Ferrer?

On Betfair he's currently trading at 1.56 favourite - that's far too short IMO. I'm far more tempted to lay him at those odds. Confidence won't be a problem for Andy and I expect him to play at a much higher intensity than he did against Federer. At the very least it will come down to a TB or two where anything can happen.