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shambata 2015 week #1

4911 Views 26 Replies 3 Participants Last post by  shambata
Happy New Year everyone! I had a blast last year and also a good december. I was focused on my other business but made a very healthy profit and I have them in an xls file, so if you are interested in my history in december you can pm me. Just to see what's what! Let's get this year on quickly I will be focusing on the wta and hongkong 50k next week. We have some angles thos weekend with a lot of qualies coming up tonite! VAMOS

Akiko Omae to beat Mizuno Kijima @1.40
Ann-Sophie Mestach to beat Sacha Jones 2-0 @1.44

Double @2.02, bet365

I will start with this double, I followed Omae all week when I wasnt sleeping and her game is better then Kijima's in many areas imho. Omae had a tougher draw and will win this in straight sets. Kijima has done all she can this tournament and she should have lost to Okamura imho in the QF, but she got lucky, winning 76 in the third.
Mestach finished last year in Toyota 75k in incredible form and I dont think Jones can cope with her. Jones had one match last year so I dont really think this can be a tough duel. GL!
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Nice to see you back man
Thanks JP, I will take it easy in the first two weeks, my first tip was a shame unfortunately.

Akgul Amanmuradova to beat Mathilde Johansson (HongKong 50k)@1.72, bet365, 6/10

Akgul had a very nice upswinging end of last year winning 4 very tough matches (Dodin, Tig, Bonaventure, Beygelzimmer) And only losing to Kruinc 76 in the 3rd in the final in a nailbiter where she had some matchpoints as well. But she is there again with great serves and can maybe have a late push to get into the top100 again. WIth Johansson she is facing a player that is not really in form, or anything, nothing special nowadays and I really believe she will prove no threat to Amanmuradova, whose time is ticking and it looks like she is makeing the most of it. They have met 7 times Johansson winning 4 of them, but Akgul winning the last 2. If she will not suffer from tiredness, she will get her 4th win tomorrow against the french! GL
Kiki Mladenovic to beat Elena Vesnina (Auckland WTA)@2.10, bet365, 5/10

Mladenovic will get better and better each year and I think they have similar heavy games with Vesnina. I believe Mladenovic is still not satisfied at all with her ranking and the quickness of her rise in the rankings as she has serious top10 potential imo. Vesnina, if ON has a very dangerious game, but really she hasnt been playing that much at all since the US Open (2 doubles and 1 singles, all lost) and that shows me she will need some time get into her game. She hasnt won in more then 4 months and only arrived to Auckland on the 3rd, after a 30 hours flight according to her twitter. Mladenovic was there on the 1st already and had 2 and a half mroe days to practice, this could be also an advantage for the hungrier french. Only time they have met is 2014 where Vesnina won easily on clay, maybe its a good time to get her back after an unsuccessful last 4 months in 2014. GL
Unlucky man. Mladenovic should have been up a set and Akgul had every chance
Sloane Stephens to beat Lauren Davis (Auckland WTA) @1.28
Vera Zvonareva to beat Cagla Buyukakcay (Shenzen WTA)@1.4

Double, @1.79, bet365, 6/10

Sloane did not finish her capmpaign last year very well, but usually she is doing OK in australia or before the AUSOPEN. SHe appeared yesterday in top form, hitting through her shots, resulted in many winners against Solar-Espinoza, who had abs no chance. Davis had a very tough first round nearly exiting but made a tremendous comeback agasint Rogers. I think Sloane will take this in 2 sets, despite their 2 3 set long h2h record.
Zvonareva making her comeback and playing a so-so Buyukakcay. I had the opportunity to watch Buyukakcay in Ankara 2 weeks ago and she was very flat, no fire and really nothing special in her game. She might be moire up for this challenge, playing Zvonareva , ex #2. but I think Vera proved to be on a good way for anice comback after beating Shuai Peng last round. She might not win this tournament, but she will beat Buyukakcay here imho. GL
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Anna Bondar to beat Rebecca Sramkova (Plantation 25k Q)@2.00, bet365, 5/10

Bondar had a nice end of last year and got some confidence in Israel 10k, where she reached the semis. She needed that althogh we know hard is not her surface, but really clay court is. Now the first round she beat ex top 10 Vaidisova (who earlier in november beat a bunch of 200-300 players, so she must still possess some level) and with a comeback win, 36 75 61 she put down her mark in this tourney. She followed up with a relatively easy win vs Shamayko, which was expected. Sramkova did not finish 2014 on a high note at all, losing to Kvastabaia and Stokke easily (decent clay courters). I think Bondar is at least as good as these players or beter on clay. I have said it many times, Bondar is maybe 70% of the player that she really is on hard court, so really we have not seen the best of her on clay. Also her potential (ex-itf junior 15) is higher than Sramkova'a and with the wins behind her back last 2 days I expect her to qualify the main draw today! GL!!
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goddamn bondar, theres no stream but it seems like she was better the whole 1st set and then she gives away the 1.set so easily...after 4-3 on serve....i mean i watched sramkova few times bullying her opponents and then falling apart, but this year is so tricky so far i dont know if we can expect that...
IM about to win a bet hold on :))) JESUS!!!!..... terrible run so far, no wonder no itf matches but have been a little unlucky as well.... all will turn very soon!!! Hopefully today!!!!

Laura Schaeder to beat Julia Terzyska (Stuttgart 10k)@3.40, bet365, 6/10

Schaeder has beaten Mendesova who has a great record in my books from last year, in 3 sets, in what was probably a big comeback 16 76 61. She has better results at home, so the home crowd really can help here. Terzyska, naturally a hard court player, has beaten De Bernardi in what was also a 3 setter, knowing De Bernardis up and down game, where basically anything can happen on a given day, Im not surprised by the result 67 76 60. In my books this is a pick em match, with Schaeder having beaten a better player in the first round than Terzyska, plus the home field advantage. At 3.40 this is a must take imo!!! GL!!!

Anna Klasen to beat Pemra Ozgen (Stuttgart 10k)@2.62, bet365, 5/10

Naturally this should be Ozgen, but knowing that Ozgen is 28, probably did not have the best or longest winter period workout, coz of her age, came to a 10k where she thinks she will get soem game going, some form. Truth is Klasen will be a hard task for her. She has beaten Pantuckova in the first round and also came back and I had a chance to watch and she was playing out of her mind, imo. TOo many winners, too fast. Home court for her as well, Ozgen more of a clay courter definitely, Klasen finishing last yeatr on a very high note, this is her type of tournament, as Ozgen is here to get something going for the start of the year. THis can be seen also by her first round result, 64 64 against a lowly Rueffer. Im confident this is a great get here as well. GL!!
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Audray Albie to beat Ekaterine Gorgodze (Antalya 10k)@2.37, bet365, 6/10

Albie is the better player imo, very agressive hard court type but has success on clay as well. Hasnt played that many tournaments, but when she played she has beaten many players better or same as Gorgodze. On the other hand I dont think Gorgodze has the form right now to play up to Albie, I even think it will be a straight set affair to the french! GL!!!
Cmon mate let's get this first winner for the season. Once you get it there will be no stopping ya I reckon. So close last night

up to the next one:

Antonia Lottner to beat Katerina Vankova (Stuttgart 10k)@2.20, bet365, 4/10

I fancy Lottner to win this coin toss. She is in good form and usually has nice results in Germany. Absolutely indoor hard court is her fav court, no doubt, with big serve and big forehand. Vankova is also decent on hard court what makes me pick Lottner is the talent she possesses and also the fact that Vankova does not match up well againt similar players on the 10k level. Before she lost to many players in the quarters similar her level. Looks like she has more fire to the 25k 50k level already. This might also be a straight setter as Lottner is a sharpshooter! GL!!
Well done mate. Hopefully get on a roll now
Sofia Kenin to beat Natalia Vikhlyantseva (Daytona Beach 25k Q)@2.37, bet365, 4/10

I love both juniors, I think they have big potential, one of them already represented it many times, Vikhlyantseva, mostly on hard courts, she ahs an aggressive basiline game for that. Kenin on the other hand, imo more of a fighter and really tough in head than a hige game and I think she will need to start to represent herself soon. SHe has won the ORange Bowl, unofficial junior world championship, at the end of last year in dec. Beating Neel and Bellis in stratight sets, two of the big talk of the best juniors in the US. THen went on to wiun 4 more matches in the COffee Bowl, also a G1 tournament (G1 is like 10k-25k level if you want to compare it with aduklt torunaments), where she lost to Gordon, acceptable loss imho. Thats a 10/11 run, and last week she lost to Jani 64 64 which was little bit of a shock to me, because I though the other way around, but Jani pulled through, although she was in a good mood herself. Last round yesterday she beat the hell out of Moser, a solid 300 player. Her russiuan opponent beat Webley SMith who is not really effective on clay so that is not a huge win imo and I think Kenin will win this battle with her head not her game now. I expect a form decrease from Vikhlyantseva and a a very stellar mental performance from Kenin, who is playing on a surface that suits her better and playing in front of a home florida crowd! This also can be a nailbiter so go easy on it!
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I will continue to post this week here and only start a new thread next week or in february!
Celine Ghesquire to beat Caroline Romeo (el Kantaoui 10k)@1.66
Gyulnara Nazareva to beat Zhibek Kulambayeva (AKtobe 10k)@1.2

Double, bet365, 6/10

Ghesquire is in a great form last week she has beaten Evtimova and Danilina which are much better players than Romeo, in fact ROmea has not showed any signs of improving her game in the last 4-5 tournaments, usually exiting first or second rounds. Ghesquire had a career high ranking of 568 and got injured now she is on the comeback and if you look at her results from last year you can see that she is clearly a better player than Romeo. Given her form and decline of Romeo's form this should be a straight set win.
Nazareva is a talented junior, 2 years older than her opponent. She has beaten Rudakova, quite a solid player at 470, in the quali finals that also whows that she is ready for the new season. (Rudakova has hade a very nice ending of 2014 so imo she cannot be that bad). ALso her opponent has not played a single match in adults yet so this is is a debut for her, at the age of 14, not a bad junior, but will not be enough here. Go wtih this double, it has a high possability to hit! GL!
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Bernarda Pera to beat Paula Christina Goncalves (Daytona Beach 25k Q)@1.72, bet365, 6/10

Pera is a better player and HAS better potential than Goncalves. Both are rather hard court players, but it looks to me that Pera is playing a little better on this green clay here, I thunk odds should be around 1.57 for Pera. It will drop imo for sure. GL!
just another loss from matchpoint.... little irritated by these...

Jessica Pieri to beat Lea Tholey (el Kantaoui 10k)@1.72, bet365, 8/10

Im going to bet big on the better and older Pieri sister against a french girl who is nothing special imo. These odds represent value, I expect this to be around 1.44 at game time. Pieri had some very solid wins already in her career including last week only losing to Goerges who won it later, 64 in the third. She lost to Cascino in 3 hard sets 2 tournaments ago ,while Tholey got killed by Cascino last week 1,1. GL!!
I finally started making some profit although on AusOpen
Cannot wait for more ITFs to start :D
leading 42 and retired....haha, oh come on man, give me a break up there!!!

Eden Silva to beat Shiho Akita (Sharm el Sheikh 10k)@2.62, bet365, 5/10

Silva is enjoying a nice luittle run, while Akita is trying to come back to her ex top300 ranking. Silva has dispatched two opponents int he previous rounds, by a score of 1,1 and 2,2, while Akita already almost lost in the first round when Stephenson was up a set and 51 when she got injured (how bad is that), then beat an ailing Rosatello so imo thats really nothing special. Silva has the potential to beat her easily and at thsi price its a must take! GL

Aleksandra Naydenova to beat Katherina Lehnert (Sharm el Sheikh 10k)@1.83, bet365, 5/10

Lehnert beat Naydenova in 3 sets last week, Naydenova clearly beaing the more experienced player, I think this is a great revenge spot imo as Naydenova does have much more match routine and results than Lehnert. This is a pure revenge spot playwith Naydenova being the better player imo. GL

Sandra Samir to beat Dejana Radanovic (El Kantaoui 10k)@1.83, bet365, 5/10

Samir once again for me, although I think I have lost couple of times with her, I think she has never beaten two good opponents in a row, so that must be a sign of growing up, rising to the occasion. Radanovic had some nice win in the past but hard court is not her favourite (neither is Samir's but she has been playing on it for quite some time). My bet is based on samirs win over Pacquet, who is a very solid 409 ranked player who just was in the quarters of a 25k in India at teh end of last week.I believe this is Samirs biggest win of her career and she will build on it today! Radanovic is decent but definitely beatable! GL
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