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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
updated bankroll from last week: +25units!

Thoughts: I have had some good leans that I was missing out and some bad bets that I included! I will try to get better at that as I fell last week could have been much much better!!! I will continue to to look for value in the matchups, nothing more, not really concentrated on the bankroll nor anything else. You are always your best when you only concentrate on the game itself, on the value itself! Lets do that! I usually would like to have my units 10-15 plus every week, but as I said it will be just a simple calculation at the end of the week. I will not pay attention to it, thats for the better! I hit LIebens @5 and almost hit Shao @5 (for those who cashed out @3 its still great profit) so Im OK with last week, but I should have had a better one, so lets work for that!!! Good luck guys! I iwsh everyboy a profitable week again!
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
small card today, therefore I dont see many values, maybe one here:

Martina Malmqvist to beat Kayla Rizzolo (Sharm el Sheikh 10kQ)@2.62, bet365, 4/10

Just to make sure nobody bets a house on a q match! But this matchup imo is really a coin flip at best, but more leaning towards Malmqvist, who has raised on hard court. We dont really know that much about her recent results, because she hast been playing at all, but SHarm is a surface RIzzolo needs to get used to as well, so that probably cancels eachother out. Surface advantage is for Malmqvist and she had wins over player same or better than Rizzolo so I dont see why she could not win here. Rizzolos tournament are mostly on clay last year, so superfast sharm surface needs a lot to get used to. GL!
 

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Anymore plays in the next few hours mate. I got twitter set up again for the notifications. But it will be no good if I'm in dream land.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Marta Sexmilo Pascual to beat Kim-Alice Grajdek (Palmanova 10k)@2.5, bet365, 6/10

Strong selection today from Mallorca, windy conditions are expected like yesterday ([email protected]). Marta is a talented junior and I have been following her for last year, 36th in the spanish adult rankings which is decent for a 18 year old. She got a WC for the 32 MD of the spanish national tournament, where many wta players also started (except suarez navarro, muguruza and torro flor, almost everybody started) she lost to Bolsova-Zadoinov 75 in the third. That was in december, befoie that least year she had many tournaments where she qualified and won in the MD as well, 4 times and I expect an even better Marta here to progress. Also we are fading Grajdek here, who is not really suited up for windy clay court conditions. Last 16 clay court tournaments she only won 5. and the last time she played on red clay was in august (in fla they play on green clay which is somewhere in btw clay and hard, but definitely differnet than red clay) AND her lost results were terrible even in Florida, lost twice in q 1st round, even retiring the first tournament, so she might be nursing something still. Everything looks to a talented junior win here who has already put down her mark in the main draws so this will be no stranger to her! GL!
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Some thoughts: I will be careful this week, because players are still playing their first tournaments, also here many upsets can happen so I will be focusing some on the bigger ods in the 3.75-5.00 range. Last night I skipped Bai, and she lost so I was happy, BUT a new star is born in the aussie junior draws and her name is Destinee Aiava, who beat wta 323 Lu 61 61. Aiava is only 14 years old, will be 15 in may, has had a remarkable 1 year in the ITF juniuors where she racked up 52/60 wins. Amazingly she went into the semifinals of her second EVER ITF jun tournament, which was a G1, has beaten many top50 players doing so. I mean really its amazing and you dont see that often. She has won 24 matches in a row one point, won 4 tournaments on that run, losing only 2 sets (are u kidding me).... Her beat list iuncludes: Inglis, BIrrel, SHymanovych, Vikhlyantseva, Yerolymos, Stojanovic...) Really a player to watch out for. SHe lost 0,0 vs GLatch last tournament was the only reason I didnt play her last night, but seeing the resutls makes me sad I did not. 61 61 vs 323, with 14 years old that does not happen often either. Lets look at for her and similar players as books migth not do so in the beginning (or they dont understand the significance of her 1 year long ITF junior career) Junior Players go throguh 2-3 years getting where she is in 1 year, even the more talented ones Im talkig about....
 

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JP u ever seen her?
No I have never seen her play but she has massive wraps on her. Like you said extraordinary performances already for her age. Great for australian tennis.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Flavia Guimares Bueno to beat Nathalia Rossi (Sao Paulo 25k)@3.25, bet365, 3/10

FGB has came throught the qualies and has 2 matches already in the bag, while Sao Paulo native Rossi starts her season with this match. While there might be more people to root for Rossi, I think given the last 4/12 since end of august, producing horror losses e.g. vs Neel, Martinich, Zeballos, Gatica. FGB has beaten already players the same or better then Rossi (Aguirri, Perez Rojas, Sarrazin, Giangreco Campiz) and I think she is very likely to make the upset here. Rossi approach this match as a must win, while FGB can play with less pressure, for this match with 3.25, which moved to our favour, it was 3.00 before, we have to take the chance! GL! match starts in 20 mins!
 

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Did one of ozga or vasquez pull out or something. I thought that match would have started by now. Grajdek is meant to be after that match
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
AAAND you can still bet on it at bet365.... amazingly stupid, but sometimes that happens, its was 1 year ago when that happened with many matches from spain 10k, i bet all of them of course they have voided all of them, dont bother to try out, your money will be lost in the clouds for half a day :)
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
"Great" result with Bueno.... easy loss.. sorry! :(

Nice spot bets here in Tunesia though:

Rabener/Nakano to beat Stamatova/Dascalu (EL Kantaoui 10k WD)@1.83, bet365, 5/10

Rabener lost today to Shinikova, which was really expected, and Nakano has been to the semis twice in singles last 2 tournaments, so she is in a good form, we can ssay taht. Rabener is a 380 doubles player, best ranked amonst the 4 players. Stamatova had a bad beat vs Njuki, I think odds were like 4.33 so thats not too good. ON the other hand Dascalu also lost as a favourite vd Fouroclas, here even worse that it was 46 in the third, 2hrs 36 mins. So both can be bummed a little... Stamatova is a decent doubles player, not like Rabener and Dascalu just does not really focus on doubles, her last doubles match was in august... Before the match I thought they are a better bet than stamatova/dascalu but now after gathering all information from today I would say Rabener/Nakano should be favoured here, although value is little, they will most probably win. GL!
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
Balducci/Marchetti to beat Caciotti/Cucca (El Kantaoui 10k WD)@1.5
Lucas Pouille to beat Andrej Martin (Bergamo Challenger)@1.22

[email protected], 6/10, bet365


Spot bet for doubles, huge advantage because Cucca won 6 points out of 32 from her service games losing out 0,0 to Njoze today. In normal circumstances Balducci/Marchetti would be winners but knowing that something is definitely wrong with Cucca's serve, we have to take this 1.5. Pouille is pretty hot still and playing on a fast surface in Bergamo, meanwhile Martin had nothing special of a start of the year, 0/4, and more of a clay courter for sure. I could not find a better 1.22 for the doubles bc that I think has a veryyy high % to hit. If you can find a better one, its up to you. Martin did not beat nobody like Pouille on hard court last year. GL!
 

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Any more till Launceston mate? Might catch some zzzz
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
Pouille gets the job done!
Today's update: +5.98 units
Updated bankroll: +30.98 units
no more plays today, tomorrow is a big day!!!


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