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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Don't see this perrenial MTF thread
Bold for big danger (>30% chance of loss), italics for slight (>10%)

Djokovic
Nadal
Thiem
Medvedev
Tsitsipas

Zverev
Berrettini
Monfils
Shapovalov

Bautista
Goffin
Schwartzman
Rublev

Fognini
Khachanov
Wawrinka
Carreno
Dimitrov
Auger-Aliassime
Garin
Isner
Lajovic
Paire
Coric
de Minaur
Krajinovic
Fritz
Ruud
Hurkacz
Struff

Basilashvili
Evans
 

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emotion, I think you underestimate how bad Medvedev is on clay. He has never gotten past R1 of Roland Garros, and Fucsovics has at least won a clay tourney before. Medvedev's record on clay is asolutely pathetic. Yeah, I understand that Medvedev has beaten Fucsovics on clay before, but that still doesn't mean he won't lose again in R1 as the possibility is probably looming in the back of his mind.
 

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If Krajinović, Fritz or de Minaur get the nightmare draw of the mighty Aslan Karatsev they are 100% screwed.
 

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Don't see this perrenial MTF thread
Bold for big danger (>30% chance of loss), italics for slight (>10%)

Djokovic
Nadal
Thiem
Medvedev
Tsitsipas

Zverev
Berrettini
Monfils
Shapovalov

Bautista
Goffin
Schwartzman
Rublev

Fognini
Khachanov
Wawrinka
Carreno
Dimitrov
Auger-Aliassime
Garin
Isner
Lajovic
Paire
Coric
de Minaur
Krajinovic
Fritz
Ruud
Hurkacz
Struff

Basilashvili
Evans
Paire's won seven games in four matches since his return, I think the chances of him losing are higher than 10% lol
 

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Paire's won seven games in four matches since his return, I think the chances of him losing are higher than 10% lol
Certainly the bookies agree. They have Kwon as the favourite.
 

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Bold: Basilashvili, Evans
Italics: Hurkacz, PCB, RBA, Struff, Garin, Medvedev, Monfils, Wawrinka, FAA, Thiem, Paire, Goffin, Fognini, Isner
 

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emotion, I think you underestimate how bad Medvedev is on clay. He has never gotten past R1 of Roland Garros, and Fucsovics has at least won a clay tourney before. Medvedev's record on clay is asolutely pathetic. Yeah, I understand that Medvedev has beaten Fucsovics on clay before, but that still doesn't mean he won't lose again in R1 as the possibility is probably looming in the back of his mind.
Medvedev has a win over Fooch on clay though. Think he's as likely to win as lose, still, so should be bolded yep.
 

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Big danger : Hurkacz, Basilashvili, Fognini, Evans

Danger : Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Schwartzman, Paire, Goffin

possible danger : RBA, PCB, Struff, Lajovic, Shapovalov, Dimitrov, Monfils, Thiem, Isner

Some seeds are in danger because they are out of form or coming from injury (like Fognini, Paire) , others totally out of form (like Basilashvili, Monfils), others because they did not play on clay before (Isner) or because they have tough opponents (like Schwartzman, Goffin, Tsitsipas, Medvedev, even RBA)

I would not be surprised to have at least 10 seeds out in the first round
 

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Thiem (tougest possible R1 opponent and we have no idea about his clay form or even his mental state after his 1st slam win)
Monfils (massive clownfest incoming vs. Bublik)
Goffin
Fognini
Garin (useless in slams even if Kohli looks like he is done atm)
Isner (can always lose against anyone)
Paire
Basilashvili
Evans (if Nishikori is really as bad as it seems maybe not but Evans is pretty awful on clay obviously)
 

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de Minaur is in danger against any qualifier, his clay level is just borderline top 100.
 

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Lol at people thinking cilic might upset Thiem. No way
 

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Even more so as he draws Cecchinato
Indeed, Cecchinato is the favorite in their match. If Cecchinato is playing anywhere near 2018 level, then even Zverev would have some trouble with his dropshots.
 

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Discussion Starter #20
Yeah, I'll add de Minaur to the list with that draw.

While I can imagine Kwon advancing, it does not usually involve Paire finishing the match (or even necessarily showing up).
 
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