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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
So at this stage of the season Roger lost ... three times only (since Cincinatti last year BTW).
-1st loss to Marat Safin, AO SF (hard): 7-5 4-6 7-5 6-7(6) 7-9
1 MP
Epic battle, very close throughout the match. Marat got a good coaching from Lundgren it seems, he overpowered and made run Federer a lot. Federer had a minor foot injury.

-2nd loss to Richard Gasquet, Monte-Carlo QF (clay): 7-6(1) 2-6 6-7(10)
1 MP
Begining of the clay season for Fed (not his favourite surface), right after Miami. Gasquet is in a momentum, lots of winners, shows mental strength at key moments (MP against him). Though not in a GS, this is the earliest loss of Fed this season.

-3rd loss to Rafael Nadal, Roland Garros SF (clay): 3-6 6-4 4-6 3-6
One of the much anticipated showdowns of the season, Fed is quite nervous and starts the match very badly contrary to his habits (many breaks). He's had a good draw and is full of energy but he doesn't handle the Rafa lefty topspin at the net and he's often overpowered on baseline.

IMO the most siginficant loss is Nadal's, as Roger didn't seem to be able to win, because he was doing too many mistakes (BH, FH and volleys). In addition, he didn't have "external factors" to explain the loss. He was unusually nervous. However, we can notice that Nadal's game is the most "1 dimensionnal" of the three, but he compensated with his mental strength and his science of clay.
In the other two matches it was the usual Federer, and he even showed a capacity to fight till the end and in adversity, that some questioned at the time (cf. Wertheim).
Not surprisingly 2 losses came on clay, where Fed is a bit less confident and less patient, though one of the best on the tour.
The Gasquet match is a bit special as Federer lost to a kind of "double" of himself, a talented all-courter without huge power. Gasquet, due to lack of stamina, certainly wouldn't have won in a 5-set match, but he seized his opporunities and took advantage of his relatively "unknown" game on the tour.
So to beat Fed in 2005 :
-Make him visit the court a lot
-Bombard him with maximum pace on both wings
-Play on clay
-Build confidence before with lots of wins in previous torunies
-Prepare for a tough and long journey
What do you think ? ;)
 
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Re: The three losses of Roger in 2005 so far: analysis and comparison

he had matchpoints in two of these three. there is no question that the much better player won at the French.

At the other two, it ended in final set tiebreak and 9-7 in the fifth. Roger has won so many of those close matches (this year --against ljubicic, ferrero), but these two he lost. You could say the better person won, but frankly, on a final set tiebreak it is a lottery.
 

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Re: The three losses of Roger in 2005 so far: analysis and comparison

should have beaten marat, that loss hurt him the most
 

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Discussion Starter #4
Re: The three losses of Roger in 2005 so far: analysis and comparison

mitalidas said:
You could say the better person won, but frankly, on a final set tiebreak it is a lottery.
But still, when Fed has a MP against you, it takes good balls to stay alive... ;)
 

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Re: The three losses of Roger in 2005 so far: analysis and comparison

mdhubert:

Roger's loss to Nadal in the FO SF was NOT a shock. Nadal was the favorite on clay. Roger has never done that well on clay except for Hamburg....which is a different type of clay and a colder climate.

As for his loss to Gasquet, again that red clay is not his best surface but keep in mind that he had just won two prior MS tournaments back to back. Most of the top players were not even entered to play Monte Carlo. Later in the year Roger beat Gasquet in straight sets in the Hamburg final.

Of all the loses the AO loss has to be the most disappointing. It was so close and if he had won that he would have no doubt beaten Hewitt in the final.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
Re: The three losses of Roger in 2005 so far: analysis and comparison

PamV said:
mdhubert:

Roger's loss to Nadal in the FO SF was NOT a shock. Nadal was the favorite on clay. Roger has never done that well on clay except for Hamburg....which is a different type of clay and a colder climate.

As for his loss to Gasquet, again that red clay is not his best surface but keep in mind that he had just won two prior MS tournaments back to back. Most of the top players were not even entered to play Monte Carlo. Later in the year Roger beat Gasquet in straight sets in the Hamburg final.

Of all the loses the AO loss has to be the most disappointing. It was so close and if he had won that he would have no doubt beaten Hewitt in the final.
Good remarks. Did I say that this SF loss was a shock ? The match, the encounter, was a shock, not the loss. As you say he still has to adapt to RG conditions and that explains a bit his nervousness. But he put a lot of balls in the net and was often out of position, which is not usual for him, even on clay.
 

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Re: The three losses of Roger in 2005 so far: analysis and comparison

mitalidas said:
At the other two, it ended in final set tiebreak and 9-7 in the fifth. Roger has won so many of those close matches (this year --against ljubicic, ferrero), but these two he lost. You could say the better person won, but frankly, on a final set tiebreak it is a lottery.
Yes and no, on overage the better players do win the lotteries more often ;) . You heard me, Mr. Safin? :p
 
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Re: The three losses of Roger in 2005 so far: analysis and comparison

I didn't see the match against Gasquet, but I believe the Nadal match was the one he could or should have won. I mean against Safin it was just an unbelievable match and Marat played very well. Against Nadal it was just plain bad tennis from Federer, but still halfway through the 3rd I felt Roger was getting on top and he could have won it.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Re: The three losses of Roger in 2005 so far: analysis and comparison

Cervantes said:
but still halfway through the 3rd I felt Roger was getting on top and he could have won it.
Too fragile and too short, from the first point we felt Rog was in danger this day, and he screwed up badly his advance in the third. It's strange what you say, because without this damn lob in the fourth he WAS beating Safin in AO ! Nowhere we saw Nadal fighting for his life in RG... alas
 

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LOL..just noticed..it was Nadal's birtday when he beat Federer, right?? And also Marat's!!! Hahah..so it should be your birtday to be able to beat Federer!!
Ah big WHOOOOOO for the birtday boys!!
 

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Re: The three losses of Roger in 2005 so far: analysis and comparison

mdhubert said:
Too fragile and too short, from the first point we felt Rog was in danger this day, and he screwed up badly his advance in the third. It's strange what you say, because without this damn lob in the fourth he WAS beating Safin in AO ! Nowhere we saw Nadal fighting for his life in RG... alas
I'm not saying he didn't have a chance to beat either Gasquet or Safin, but at least he played up to his potential against Safin. Against Nadal I feel he could have done better and that's why I regard this loss the worst.
 
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Discussion Starter #12
Jessie_Sophie said:
LOL..just noticed..it was Nadal's birtday when he beat Federer, right?? And also Marat's!!! Hahah..so it should be your birtday to be able to beat Federer!!
Ah big WHOOOOOO for the birtday boys!!
Yep, very true ! but it has to be a GS SF to work, otherwise... maybe it's extra motivation: I'm getting old (esp. Nadal), I have to move my ass...
 

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I only saw two of those. At the AO I dont think he was hindered much by any injury, Safin was just awesome and outplayed and overpowered him. It was still close, but that was because Roger played very well too.

At RG Nadal was a lot better and Federer didnt play his best, but he had no chance. The answer to beating Fed is to just stay solid, keep your level up throughout the match, and overpower him with your best shot(s). Not very easy to do.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
Experimentee said:
The answer to beating Fed is to just stay solid, keep your level up throughout the match, and overpower him with your best shot(s). Not very easy to do.
I fax the recipe to Ducky and C'moon guy straight away... I would add that you can forget the powerful serve but instead look for placement to build the next "killer" shot
 

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Experimentee said:
I only saw two of those. At the AO I dont think he was hindered much by any injury, Safin was just awesome and outplayed and overpowered him. It was still close, but that was because Roger played very well too.

At RG Nadal was a lot better and Federer didnt play his best, but he had no chance. The answer to beating Fed is to just stay solid, keep your level up throughout the match, and overpower him with your best shot(s). Not very easy to do.
if safin outplayed roger then it would have been a straight sets beat down
roger had cahnces mate against rafa. it was alot closer than people seem to think it was
 

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i think that the safin match was very important esp to the other players on tour in that they saw it was a match fed was expected to win and he brought alot of game to the match but he was beat!! it gave them hope that he wasnt beatable only when he's nervous or playing off!
 

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Discussion Starter #18
Nimomunz said:
i think that the safin match was very important esp to the other players on tour in that they saw it was a match fed was expected to win and he brought alot of game to the match but he was beat!! it gave them hope that he wasnt beatable only when he's nervous or playing off!
Yes true, especially on hard... one loss in one year ! He's beatable, but so rarely !!
 

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Nimomunz said:
i think that the safin match was very important esp to the other players on tour in that they saw it was a match fed was expected to win and he brought alot of game to the match but he was beat!! it gave them hope that he wasnt beatable only when he's nervous or playing off!
Too few players know they have the abilities of Safin at his best to take any hope from seeing Safin beating Roger
 
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