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In which month in 2006 will Rafael Nadal become world number 1


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Discussion Starter #1
We know that if Nadal won Cincy and Fed lost before the semis, Nadal would lead the Race. Now that Nadal is out...
For the good calculators of the board, what must happen on Federer and Nadal sides in USO for a change at the top ?
 
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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

As far as I can see, the earliest possible change at the top now (in the entry rankings) would be Mon 2nd October (oops, make that Mon 3rd).

This would require Nadal to win the US Open and New Haven (or any other optional in September - he only has room for one more), Federer to do poorly this week and in New York and fail to reach the final in Bangkok.
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

jtipson said:
As far as I can see, the earliest possible change at the top now (in the entry rankings) would be Mon 2nd October.

This would require Nadal to win the US Open and New Haven (or any other optional in September - he only has room for one more), Federer to do poorly this week and in New York and fail to reach the final in Bangkok.
Good news, thanks. I think Fed can sleep well till November...
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

Bother! Just when I was starting to think .... what if......?
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

when? whenever, he will, eventually....

just a matter of whether he could beat hewitt's record (20yrs and 9 months... )
i.e. be no.1 before march 2007..
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

never.
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

Rafa will not play New Haven but I believe he's going to Beijing for the China Open in September.
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

well if he wins the us and roger loses 1st round, then he'll be no1 in the race
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

MY GOD, Rogi will stay # 1 at least in Entry Ranking, and that's what really count!
I don't care that stupid Race!!
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

If Roger wins Cincinnati, Rafael will be hard pressed to catch him, won't he?

Federer has not a single point from Paris or Madrid, and really only has a bundle of points from the U.S. Open. Nadal has no optionals left, if I'm not mistaken, so is it just a matter of Federer not imploding at the U.S. and putting some work in at his optionals in Basel and Bangkok?
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

Beforehand said:
If Roger wins Cincinnati, Rafael will be hard pressed to catch him, won't he?

Federer has not a single point from Paris or Madrid, and really only has a bundle of points from the U.S. Open. Nadal has no optionals left, if I'm not mistaken, so is it just a matter of Federer not imploding at the U.S. and putting some work in at his optionals in Basel and Bangkok?
Don't forget Federer has quite a lot from the TMC too - the max 750.
Nadal is allowed an extra optional until Bercy as he wasn't ranked high enough for direct entry last year, but that only lets him gain 190 at the very most.
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

Ah. Tennis Masters Cup.

So, as long as Federer doesn't do HORRIBLY at the Open and cleans his optionals up a little bit, he won't have to worry about keeping #1 until the Masters Cup?
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

Beforehand said:
I believe it's only 5.
Hasn't Nadal already won 5 optional tournaments this year? Brasil, Acapulco, Barcelona, Bastad, Stuttgart.
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

Federer would have to lose early this week and then Nadal would have to do really well at the US Open with a semi final or a final appearance.
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

I don't see him being #1 before AO end. He is on a foreign turf now, on a surface where he is not expected to do well against top opposition. And then .. it will be indoors .. even worse.. Fed didn't care about playing indoors last year as he had no challengers. He will care this time. The next time Nadal plays on a friendly surface will be in Australia. Then he can make some strides.. But so can Fed..
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

Beforehand said:
That's what I thought, but apparently not.
Yes, it is normally restricted to five if you are ranked high enough for direct entry into all the masters' tournaments (or qualify or get WCs for them), but Nadal didn't get into Bercy last year, so he's allowed a sixth optional until that tournament takes place this year. This means he can temporarily bolster his ranking with another optional result, but it will come off before the TMC.

On the race he'll only be allowed five optionals since he's been ranked high enough for direct entry all this year.
 

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Re: Now that Nadal lost, when could he get number 1 spot ?

Beforehand said:
Ah. Tennis Masters Cup.

So, as long as Federer doesn't do HORRIBLY at the Open and cleans his optionals up a little bit, he won't have to worry about keeping #1 until the Masters Cup?
Provided that Nadal doesn't win in New York. Then it would be touch and go for the rest of the season.
 
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