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Discussion Starter #1
It's a little over halfway in the season and the ATP finals spots almost seem locked especially after the shock Federer upset.



Kevin Anderson, John Isner and Novak Djokovic are almost essentially fighting for the last three spots. Whoever makes the final, and whoever wins will get a significantly boost before the final grand slam of the year starts. I think Nishikori at #10 in the race (but only 20 in the live ranking) is too far behind to gain enough ground, unless he really riprolls in the upcoming HC season.
 

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Nadal, Federer, Zverev, Del Potro, Djokovic and Cilic are essentially locked bar injury, while Thiem may be in danger if he puts up one of his usual 500- points second half of the years. Dimitrov will need an unrealistic rise in form to make it, while Isner and Anderson are both likely candidates having done well in the NA summer swing in the past. Nishikori probably needs a USO final run to catch up, not impossible as he’s been consistent in slams and had his career best Wimbledon run.
 

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It's a little over halfway in the season and the ATP finals spots almost seem locked especially after the shock Federer upset.



Kevin Anderson, John Isner and Novak Djokovic are almost essentially fighting for the last three spots. Whoever makes the final, and whoever wins will get a significantly boost before the final grand slam of the year starts. I think Nishikori at #10 in the race (but only 20 in the live ranking) is too far behind to gain enough ground, unless he really riprolls in the upcoming HC season.
Kei Nishikori should keep working hard and try to get the #9 spot, then I am sure there will be at least one player pulling out before the start of the event.
 

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Thiem isn't a lock as possibly injured and normally useless after Wimbledon.

Would expect Thiem, Anderson and Isner to be fighting for two spots.
 

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In: Nadal, Fed, Zverev, Del Potro
Highly Likely: Djokovic, Cilic
Contenders: Thiem, Anderson, Isner, Nishikori
Pretenders: Coric, Dimitrov, Raonic, Goffin
 

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Thiem isn't a lock as possibly injured and normally useless after Wimbledon.

Would expect Thiem, Anderson and Isner to be fighting for two spots.
Thiem is playing Hamburg Kitzbuhel on clay, that should add to his chances. Us open is also his 2nd best slam, I think he's pretty much a lock at this point. Obviously if he's injured that goes out the window.
 

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There's like a 80% chance one of the top 8 will pull out so I would say whoever is ranked #9 will have a chance to qualify unless that player pulls out himself. I would say Nishikori has a good chance at qualifying, on the back of a good NA swing and Tokyo run. He's played less matches this year than he usually does so hopefully fatigue won't be an issue.
 

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Never say never, it only takes maybe a ATP 500 title or a couple of 250's for people to get right up there, and a masters victory for a lot of players would put them right in the frame for top 8. You don't even need to win the big events, just finals/semi-finals can get you close.

At the moment it looks done but I am sure we will see somebody emerge on the american hard courts and maybe asian swing too. Anybody in the top 20 still has a chance, but needs a very good run.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
Never say never, it only takes maybe a ATP 500 title or a couple of 250's for people to get right up there, and a masters victory for a lot of players would put them right in the frame for top 8. You don't even need to win the big events, just finals/semi-finals can get you close.

At the moment it looks done but I am sure we will see somebody emerge on the american hard courts and maybe asian swing too. Anybody in the top 20 still has a chance, but needs a very good run.
I guess Jack Sock taught us a few things. If only Kei could do a Jack Sock, less likely now with Djokovic looking nearly back to normal and others following suit :bigcry:
 

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I guess Jack Sock taught us a few things. If only Kei could do a Jack Sock, less likely now with Djokovic looking nearly back to normal and others following suit :bigcry:
Kei only peaks in strong eras, unfortunate for him, I genuinely believe his 2016 self would have easily secured a masters and won that farce of a USO.
 

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None would predict now that Nole will not make the last 8 so Anderson-Isner is crutial in this battle.
Not sure who Nishikori should want to win tomorrow. Isner is less consistent so maybe him, but then again Anderson might feel a lot of pressure to defend his USO final points and bomb out early.
 

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Thiem isn't a lock as possibly injured and normally useless after Wimbledon.

Would expect Thiem, Anderson and Isner to be fighting for two spots.
That's about right. USO run will be key for him

I expect Anderson and Isner to deliver in the American series. Thiem (?)

I'd say it will be a battle between Cilic and Thiem and Nishikori for the last spot

Dimitrov BS'ing his way into the 13th spot :lol
 

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As of July 23rd..

6- Dominic Thiem 2995
7- Marin Čilić 2915
8- Kevin Anderson 2820
9- John Isner 2220
10- Marco Cecchinato 1631
11- Kei Nishikori 1610
12- Fabio Fognini 1600
13- Kyle Edmund 1530
14- Diego Schwartzman 1455
15- Borna Ćorić 1430
16- Grigor Dimitrov 1420

- Top 5 are absolute locks (Nadal, Federer, Delpotro, Zverev, Djokovic)

- Thiem is the one in danger of getting leapfrogged despite placing 6th currently in the race. Cilic/Anderson/Isner all have a surface/form advantage over him in the next 4 months.

- Nishikori is a dark horse for the eight spot. He probably needs to win a M1000 or reach the Final at USO to get himself back in contention.

- I'm sure Dimitrov is out of it.

- Edmund and Coric both have had a decent season, could make a late, unexpected charge in Tankercy . One withdrawal and one of them could be in..
 

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Nishikori will EASILY make it if he stays fit
There are a lot more points left than people realize and I think Nishikori will definitely make it give HC is his best surface. He could probably finish 6th if he has a great 2nd half and Thiem does his usual disappearing act.
 

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Discussion Starter #20 (Edited)
Nishikori will EASILY make it if he stays fit
There are a lot more points left than people realize and I think Nishikori will definitely make it give HC is his best surface. He could probably finish 6th if he has a great 2nd half and Thiem does his usual disappearing act.
he will EASILY and definitely make it? :crying:

He's let down by missing the whole January, and early R1/2 exits in all the 500s he entered to date. He also skipped IW and lost R3 in Miami, R1 of Madrid. Current ranking is only 20 so he is really at mercy of the draw. Meet Djokovic a couple more times QF or earlier, especially at the USO and I think we're done talking about this. He also has yet to win a title since February 2016, and I can't see him qualifying without a few of those under his belt. I'll be very proud if he does make the top 10 again because I actually wrote him off ever returning to that position after that terrible loss in Miami, but qualifying for the ATP finals (without withdrawal) seems really farfetched at this stage, unless Improvedservicekori is here to stay and more importantly the draw AND health permits. Because he'll likely have some chances and then go crook somewhere inconvenient :facepalm:

Anyhow I am thankful some people still have faith in him :lol: but it's hard for me to be so eagerly optimistic knowing how Kei is. No luck and no health.

Nobody has officially qualified as of yet, so the race isn't that locked. All race top 16 have a realistic chance
well we did have Jack Sock and PCB in the mix last year though that was due to very exceptional circumstances which I can't see repeating, especially with Djokovic seemingly back to a good level. Also see live race ranking #8 Thiem has over 2800 pts, which was the minimum requirement in 2017 from memory in Paris. This means that these guys will almost certainly continue to garner pts given there is still quite a bit of season left, while the others will have quite a long way to catch up. Of course I could see Isner close the gap but the others have to push really hard. So I could say at least 80% locked :lol:

Would be hilarious if Cecchinato qualifies
yeah I don't know how he'll handle hard court though. It's hard court just about through and through on the regular tour for the rest of the year. He'll be swimming among sharks.
 
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