justice for all
Fully agreed on the lack of serious competition to PiS - it's a very weak point of the Polish political scene. They are so mediocre, particularly PO, that they essentially wasted the last 5 years and did nothing to come up with any serious alternative to the ruling party. For the most part their programme was being anti-PiS. Paraphrasing the classic master: PiS don't have anyone to lose to. I don't really know why that is. My theory is most talented people just go to private business or science and avoid involvement in political life hence the mediocrity of the politicians in Poland. Becoming a politician or an official is just not appealing enough to be a leading career path for the smartest people in town.Changing demographics, I mean people who were brought up as super traditional and conservative are dying out. Already my parents who are in their 60s are different to their parents in this regard, and I'm even more different, and kids on Twitter who are about to turn 18 and vote are even more different.
My personal situation - my husband is a foreigner and he has a job in a foreign company. We had a (way) better standard of life in Poland and if it was only up to me I would be back right with the first Wizzair flight.
I say, if there's any serious competition, PiS might lose another election because they're literally asking for it. The only problem is lack of serious competition.
And no, PiS is not stupid enough for Polexit, because EU gives them money. Look how Duda backpedaled the LGBT comments after heavy Western critique.
As for Polexit - yes it's not very likely but I wouldn't rule it out completely, the more looming danger is getting marginalised by the EU as a result of our government's confronting foreign policy and it's duality between being part of EU and betting all money on USA.
Regarding the cultural transformation (conservative and traditional dying out) I just think it'll take much longer because it's still a very traditional and catholic country (like none other in Europe). Please notice how the far right conservatives who are even to the right side of PiS (Konfederacja) have grown in strength especially among the young people during the last few years.