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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
I love these banners on Umag courts. Famous Croatia's brand. Even I have Vegeta seasoning at home! Cheers Croats :devil: I know stupid thread title :p Back to business!

Augustin Calleri - Potito Starace

Usually I don't like high stake betting, but this time It is hard miss that. Champion seems back at his bet and ready to defend his title. Calleri doesn't have best times last few months but now He came in Kitzbuhel with two wins in straight sets. He is serving huge against Lapentti. Also very solid from baseline reducing number of UE's till minimum. It is quite unusal for him, because He often mash with some crazy winners and then fallows silly mistakes. It was really painful to watch how helpless was Lapentti. I don't see how much chances stand for Starace in semis. Italian was very lucky against fellow countrymate Seppi. Match scenario was pretty crazy - full of breaks, choking and up&downs. Real rollercoaster. Today's match proved that You can't beat Calleri with counter punching and without much effort. Starace doesn't have neither booming serve or massive forehand shots. All depends on Calleri performance - if he will play like he did in first two rounds I'm sure It will be second final for Argentine. He has better serve, great FH and BH, that make different angles from baseline. Also He used dropshots quite a lot and make opponent run fast. Also Starace proved earlier that his game isn't stable at all. So I'm not giving him any credit for possible errors from Calleri.

Pick: Calleri
Odds: 1.81
Bookie: Pinnacle
Stake: 9/10
 

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Taken one bet before in-play today:

Verdasco over Monaco @ 2.26. This is based on my opinion that quality will show by the end of the match and I think Verdasco is a much better player. Monaco is playing a semi against a well respected player and is not quite up there in the best clay players. If you look at things this game is fairly 50/50. Monaco on decent form, good clay run, Verdasco decent run, poor losses, but generally experienced in winnings on the more challenging stage. I think Fernando will take this match 2-1, probably a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 affair. Either way I see it's a close one and fancy the 'dog'.
 

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lol bodog doesnt know roddick already beat lee, they have the same line set for tomorrow but the bet is still open look at this free money

https://www.bodog.com/sports-betting/tennis-atp.jsp


Date placed:
Jul 28, 2007 3:17a Single #80237329
Tennis - All tournaments for men (Game)Moneyline
ATP - Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, America - July 28th
Match must be completed within 72 hours of schedule for wagers to have action. If either players retire before the matchup is completed, all wagers will be settled as no action. Max $300. No Parlays.
(1029) Andy Roddick-1250 [email protected]:30p
Competitor: (1030) Hyung-Taik Lee
Risk $526.75 to win $42.14
 
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lol bodog doesnt know roddick already beat lee, they have the same line set for tomorrow but the bet is still open look at this free money

https://www.bodog.com/sports-betting/tennis-atp.jsp


Date placed:
Jul 28, 2007 3:17a Single #80237329
Tennis - All tournaments for men (Game)Moneyline
ATP - Indianapolis, Indiana, USA, America - July 28th
Match must be completed within 72 hours of schedule for wagers to have action. If either players retire before the matchup is completed, all wagers will be settled as no action. Max $300. No Parlays.
(1029) Andy Roddick-1250 [email protected]:30p
Competitor: (1030) Hyung-Taik Lee
Risk $526.75 to win $42.14

They won't honour that bet, it will be voided
 

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Discussion Starter #11 (Edited)
Adding one more bet

Andrei Pavel - Viktor Troicki

Decided to take Pavel here. It is really sad that player like Pavel is sitting around 130 place agonizing with all those injury problems. He is really great player with one of most lovely backhand in tour. Now seems He is bouncing back with some nice wins. First He took out local favorite Ljubicic. Then talanted inform Haase. And finally Pavel continued his successful run in Umag beating Volandri. He showed some really good signs in last two sets. Volandri did some mistakes but still - He was almost without chances to come back in match. On the other hand Troicki finally showed world that Djoko and Tipsa aren't only talented players from Serbia. He get very big win over Djokovic. After that Troicki took out Berlocq. Last win I don't count big in account because Berlocq still is pretty mediocre player. So now semis will be Troicki 7th match in Umag including three qualies. 4 of 6 was in three tight sets. Pretty crazy. I think experience should be deciding factor in this match. Pavel played many matches at this event stage unlike Troicki who reached it first time in career. After yesterday's match Pavel said that He practiced with Troicki and knows him pretty well. He also want to take revenge for lose in AO qualies this year. So considering all these things I believe it is pretty good bet. Also odds better than expected. Pavel has good chance to get back in top 100 which He fully deserves.

Pick: Pavel
Odds: 1.71
Bookie: Pinnacle
Stake: 5/10
 

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Starace vs Calleri

Calleri was impressive in this tournament in the past, this year he is impressive again. Starace, we all know his fitness problems. Yesterday he had a medical timeout. I am not sure if he can do the miracle today again. Surely Calleri isnt very solid sometimes, but he should win this. Plus here we have the revenge factor ;)
 

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I think it will be Calleri and Monaco Final.
Taking Monaco to beat Verdasco is more risky than Calleri to defeat Starace I think.

Taking this bet:

Calleri to defeat Starace
 

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Discussion Starter #16
Although almost every punter in MTF is backing Calleri, odds on Starace are dropping :shrug:

weird :confused:
 

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No one taking Moya over Canas ?

OK I'll break the ice. Moya for me @2.32

Odds about the same as their last meeting on American HC when Canas was a 'money cow' - right after he beat Federer and the over reacting public backed Canas into a comfortable fav only to see him go down in straight sets.

What makes this bet worth while is the fact that although the odds are about the same as last time around, the conditions here suit Moya like a glove(and I don't need to start boring you with Moya's pedigree here). Moya has shown very good motivation and a good level yesterday to take care of David Ferrer in straight sets.
Although Ferrer was returning like a monster most of the time(as a consequence he was backed into favorite right after he broke in the second set), Moya clung on to his serve and eventually found the vulnerable service game from Ferrer that got him back into the set.

Canas on the other hand got a walkover from Simon who threw in an error strewn preformance which was just what Canas needed to get in control.

It looks to me that Moya will be in the driver's seat, dictating play against a defensive Canas who will hang in and wait for the errors but Moya enjoys this kind of match-up and will be too solid for Canas, especially if he doesn't drastically improve his first serve percentage (44% and 49% last two matches).
 

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Monaco over Verdasco 3 [email protected]
I dont see Verdasco having the attack/defence balance in his groundstrokes to beat Monaco today. Verdasco has lost his last 3 semi-finals, and Monaco is someone who once gets his teeth into a tournament is extremely hard to beat. Verdasco clearly likes the venue, but lets not forget Juan has a nice little record himself going in Austria. H2H also plays a role and im looking to bounce back from yesterday, the match-up is hugely in Monaco' favour here.

Canas over Moya 2 [email protected]

Another extremely tough nut to crack in semi-finals, i faded Moya yesterday to my peril. Today i dont see Canas throwing in the same poor service games at crucial times like Ferrer did. Psychologically Ferrer seemed intimidated playing Moya in Umag after leading 5-3 in first set, i dont see that happening today. Canas has won this event in the past, the match up slightly in the favour of Canas. Generally though i feel Canas is the better clay courter at this prestnt time.


Problem: What do people think of backing favourites that are the defensive half of the match-up. Lets face it, Verdasco and Moya will both be controlling both baseline matches today id guess. This will probably be the last time that I back the defensive player as favourite in a match-up if both lose. It does seem a weakness of mine, but statistically i haven't looked into it myself?
 
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