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Often times MTF likes to point out how lucky Federer, Djokovic and Nadal are, whether it's a roof being closed, the opponent choking, getting a bye, playing #1000 in R3 , etc.

So what about the luck of players outside the big 3?

One who is maybe lucky or blessed with flawless genetics is Feliciano Lopez. This guy has barely had a single injury in his whole career. No big misstep or shattered knee or twisted ankle.

Who do you got?
 

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Definitely Jack Sock.

2017 Paris Masters featured no Federer, Djokovic, or Murray, and Nadal withdrew in the quarterfinals. Sock won the tournament by only facing one seed (#17 Pouille), and he faced a wildcard in the semis (Benneteau) and a qualifier in the final (Krajinovic). Not only that, he very nearly lost to Kyle Edmund in the second round after scraping by 7-5 in a third set tiebreaker.

But it got better. The win catapulted him from n.24 in the world to n.9, which was enough to earn him a spot in the ATP finals that year. Then he even managed to make it to the semis with a 2-1 record after hilarious choking performances from Zverev and Cilic (Federer straight setted him of course). The fairy tale continued when he won the first set against Dimitrov 6-4 in the semis, but quickly came to an end when he got bageled and then lost the final set 6-3.

Flash forward to now...
 

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Often times MTF likes to point out how lucky Federer, Djokovic and Nadal are, whether it's a roof being closed, the opponent choking, getting a bye, playing #1000 in R3 , etc.

So what about the luck of players outside the big 3?

One who is maybe lucky or blessed with flawless genetics is Feliciano Lopez. This guy has barely had a single injury in his whole career. No big misstep or shattered knee or twisted ankle.

Who do you got?
Lopez's body was made for tennis. Obviously injury free and great longevity, but also lefty and 6'2. If I could have my brain put in any body, it would be 19 year old Lopez's.
 

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One who is maybe lucky or blessed with flawless genetics is Feliciano Lopez. This guy has barely had a single injury in his whole career. No big misstep or shattered knee or twisted ankle.

Who do you got?
Fernando Verdasco. He seems to play on, on, and on. Verdasco also swings his racquet much bigger than Lopez, who mostly does chipping (ooh) and slicing (aah) in his matches. One would think Verdasco's game style could hurt his body in the long run, but he managed it very well throughout his career without taking big and long breaks between tournaments. It would be harsh to call Verdasco lucky. I would attribute this to management of his physique. You never know how much time and effort a particular player puts in his physical fitness and management; only the ones in his team or close ones know about it.
 

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Andy Murray. Won 2 GS with a home-court advantage. Born Brit with huge propaganda behind him. He is an overachiever IMO.
 
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Well, hard to talk about luck outside of big3, when you had "luck" of playing in the big3 era xD

Last years slam semifinalists in the form of Pouille and Berrettini who had benefited immensely from draw openings, and with all due respect, got much further than their place is. Robredo vs Fed at USO 2013 comes to mind. He was playing against worst USO Federer I have ever seen. After the match he was very happy, and EuroSport commentator said "That wasn't Roger Federer he was playing against, but don't tell that to him now".
 

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Dimitrov hasn't been injured either but most importantly, he faced Goffin to win his ATP Finals title.
Grigor had serious shoulder injury last year. And I am afraid he is still not 100% as he is constatly changing rackets and his servise motion in attempts to protect his shoulder.
 

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Wild card boyz, typically from a Grand Slam hosting country. Donald Young comes to mind as particularly lucky.
 

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Andy Murray. Won 2 GS with a home-court advantage. Born Brit with huge propaganda behind him. He is an overachiever IMO.
I'm not a major fan of him but you're really talking out of your arse here. What home court advantage does Murray have playing at Wimbledon? Does he get additional centre court treatment Djokovic might not (if so, very minimal, and expected given his status)? The crowds you can't help, but Djokovic has had to face even rowdier and partisan crowds whenever he plays Federer. Did he not win one of his Wimbledon titles straight setting Djokovic in the final?
 

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They are all incredibly lucky to have talent, parents/ federation support and everything it takes to be a top player in a worldwide competitive sport, have a fascinating life and earn more than 99% of other people in their countries.
 

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I'm not a major fan of him but you're really talking out of your arse here. What home court advantage does Murray have playing at Wimbledon? Does he get additional centre court treatment Djokovic might not (if so, very minimal, and expected given his status)? The crowds you can't help, but Djokovic has had to face even rowdier and partisan crowds whenever he plays Federer. Did he not win one of his Wimbledon titles straight setting Djokovic in the final?
let me back up my post with facts.


The aim of this study was to examine home advantage in professional tennis. Match-level data are used to measure home advantage. The test used is based on logit models, and consistent specification is addressed explicitly. Depending on the interpretation of home advantage, restrictions on the specification of the model need to be imposed. We find that although significant home advantage exists for men, the performance of women tennis players appears to be unaffected by home advantage.
 

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Definitely Jack Sock.

2017 Paris Masters featured no Federer, Djokovic, or Murray, and Nadal withdrew in the quarterfinals. Sock won the tournament by only facing one seed (#17 Pouille), and he faced a wildcard in the semis (Benneteau) and a qualifier in the final (Krajinovic). Not only that, he very nearly lost to Kyle Edmund in the second round after scraping by 7-5 in a third set tiebreaker.

But it got better. The win catapulted him from n.24 in the world to n.9, which was enough to earn him a spot in the ATP finals that year. Then he even managed to make it to the semis with a 2-1 record after hilarious choking performances from Zverev and Cilic (Federer straight setted him of course). The fairy tale continued when he won the first set against Dimitrov 6-4 in the semis, but quickly came to an end when he got bageled and then lost the final set 6-3.

Flash forward to now...
Fed was bad also, Sock easily could have taken a set had he not choked. Cilic and Zverev were bad. Both showed no quality since the USO. It was a weak tournament.
 

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let me back up my post with facts.


The aim of this study was to examine home advantage in professional tennis. Match-level data are used to measure home advantage. The test used is based on logit models, and consistent specification is addressed explicitly. Depending on the interpretation of home advantage, restrictions on the specification of the model need to be imposed. We find that although significant home advantage exists for men, the performance of women tennis players appears to be unaffected by home advantage.
Good and interesting paper.

I do not argue against the notion that home advantage might exist, at least in terms of players performing above average in their home country relative to elsewhere.

However, there are two key things I will add.

1) The stats were collected prior to 2009. Thus these statistics do not necessarily reflect the men's game post 2009.
2) The degree to which home advantage is associated with advantage in a specific matchup and match performance is not clearcut. One cannot automatically claim that Murray had a home advantage relative to Djokovic because the stats offered are general, not specific.

Further, match advantage may exist, but as a determinant of a big match outcome, you probably need more than that (hell how many people win grandslams?). Putting down Murray's two Wimbledon wins purely to "home advantage" is being intellectually dishonest.
 

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They are all incredibly lucky to have talent, parents/ federation support and everything it takes to be a top player in a worldwide competitive sport, have a fascinating life and earn more than 99% of other people in their countries.
This, too. There are probably a hundred potential Rafael Nadals starving in Africa.
 

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He doesn’t have the talent or game to win a slam and somehow he managed to win 3 of them. I still don’t know how he did it with his limited abilities
u should be banned!
 
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