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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
There is a lot of (overwhelmingly positive) movement in the rankings of the Oz players at the moment, and that seems likely to continue.

In the short term there are some interesting questions such as will Tomic overtake Kyrgios in the rankings; can one or both get seeded for RG/USO; when/if Lleyton drops out of the top 100; how far up can Groth and Kokkinakis make it this year.

For the longer term, how many will there be in the top 100 at the end of the year? And what will be the order?

So I thought it might be good to have a thread to discuss the Oz lads rankings.

And to kick off the discussion, here are the current rankings for those in the top 300 plus the number of places they've jumped since the end of last year in brackets):

Kyrgios 36 (+16)
Tomic 38 (+18)
Groth 69 (+12)
Matosevic 72 (+3)
Hewitt 98 (-48)

Duckworth 104 (+23)
Kokkinakis 133 (+17)
Millman 137 (+20)
Kubler 150 (-14)
Saville 162 (+3)
Bolt 164 (+38)
Smith 193 (+7)

Mitchell 204 (+32)
Thompson 231 (+43)
Ebden 285 (-56)
Propoggia 296 (+29)
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 · (Edited)
Matthew Ebden is now number 15 in Australia. How he has fallen.
Way down in doubles too, now no 9 for Oz. The doubles list is:

Groth, 28 (played 23 tournaments)
Peers, 32 (played 29)
Guccione, 41 (27)
Smith, 76 (23)
Junaid, 79 (35)

Hewitt, 101 (9)
Whittington, 127 (23)
Bolt, 131 (18)

Propoggia, 212 (19)
Ebden, 225 (14)
Kerr, 227 (18)
Thompson, 239 (21)
Van Peperzeel, 244 (25)
Reid, 252 (18)
Kokkinakis, 285 (8)
Hubble, 287 (12)

And for the sake of completeness and comparisons (and entertainment value!), rankings of a few selected others:

Jasika, 429 (10 played)
Matosevic, 433 (10 played)
Tomic, 434 (5)
Saville, 483 (13)
Kubler, 628 (10)
Duckworth, 833 (9)
Kyrgios, 1211 (4)
 

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What is the go with Jordan Kerr? I read an article last year that his plan this year was to crack the top 100 again but he hasn't played at all. Has he retired or is he injured?
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
In the light of our DC doubles woes and start this week of the IW/Miami run, I thought it might be timely to start some rankings predictions speculation, focusing first on doubles.

First it is worth noting that both Groth and Gooch have a fair few challenger points (around 400) to defend over the next few months - though in reality should be able to replace them with tour level results. The bigger challenge might be for Groth in defending his 750 RG SF points. On the face of it these two could take a hit in the rankings over the next few months.

Peers by contrast has a relatively even spread of GS and tour points so at less risk of dipping badly. But no real sign likely to push up much further either, at least when paired with Murray.

The second big variable is how much they all play.

Kokkinakis for example, apart from Brisbane/AO, has only played a few challengers to date when it comes to doubles and given he is having to play qualifying to get into tournaments, isn't likely to change that until he gets into the top 100 and high enough ranked for direct entry to md. Mind you, that could happen in the next few weeks...

Kokk-Kyrgios has some obvious potential as a combo, but given Kyrgios' continuing injury woes, doubt he is likely to want to add to his workload by playing much doubles.

And Tomic's doubles capacity isn't really obvious given that he can/t seem to manage more than one volley in a row.

Hewitt is probably the strongest Oz doubles player after Groth at least on paper (if you adjust his current ranking points for number of tournaments played), and could of course start playing more doubles, but his form in recent months has been poor and no sign he is really planning on going in that direction in any case.

So my punt? Biggest movement could be from some of the up and comers with some doubles capacity like Kokkinakis, Bolt and Jasika.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 · (Edited)
And the latest rankings are out (9 March).The doubles rankings for the top group are effectively unchanged. In singles, key changes are:


. Tomic moves to number 1 for Oz at 35
. Hewitt drops out of the top 100, to 101
. Kokkinakis moves up 9 places to 124

The order for the top group is now as follows:
Tomic 35
Kyrgios 37
Groth 69
Matosevic 74
Hewitt 101
Duckworth 106
Kokkinakis 124
Millman 137

So punts for this week with IW and Chinese challengers in play?

Tomic, Groth, Matosevic and Kyrgios are all in the main draw and all in with a good chance of winning at least one round (assuming Groth pulls himself back together after that demoralising DC appearance). I'm betting King Kyrgios retakes the lead though...

Duckworth, Kokkinakis, Saville and Smith [edit: and Bolt] all playing qualifying. All might struggle though - Kokkinakis from exhaustion after that 5 setter plus jet lag from a long flight (though the exhilaration of the win/confidence effect might compensate?!); the rest on recent form.

Meanwhile in China, Millman, Thompson and Mitchell. Millman needs to get past Thompson in r2 and Fognini killer Nedovysov (or Devvarman) in the quarters, but won't meet Chung until the final.
 

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And the latest rankings are out (9 March).The doubles rankings for the top group are effectively unchanged. In singles, key changes are:


. Tomic moves to number 1 for Oz at 35
. Hewitt drops out of the top 100, to 101
. Kokkinakis moves up 9 places to 124

The order for the top group is now as follows:
Tomic 35
Kyrgios 37
Groth 69
Matosevic 74
Hewitt 101
Duckworth 106
Kokkinakis 124
Millman 137

So punts for this week with IW and Chinese challengers in play?

Tomic, Groth, Matosevic and Kyrgios are all in the main draw and all in with a good chance of winning at least one round (assuming Groth pulls himself back together after that demoralising DC appearance). I'm betting King Kyrgios retakes the lead though...

Duckworth, Kokkinakis, Saville and Smith [edit: and Bolt] all playing qualifying. All might struggle though - Kokkinakis from exhaustion after that 5 setter plus jet lag from a long flight (though the exhilaration of the win/confidence effect might compensate?!); the rest on recent form.

Meanwhile in China, Millman, Thompson and Mitchell. Millman needs to get past Thompson in r2 and Fognini killer Nedovysov (or Devvarman) in the quarters, but won't meet Chung until the final.
Kokkinakis is also in the MD with a WC now :)
 

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And the latest rankings are out (9 March)...
Meanwhile in China, Millman... needs to get past Thompson in r2...
Looking too far ahead - Millman needed to get past Round 1 first...

Unexpected loss I must add, to the tall Italian Roberto Marcora, ranked 216.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 · (Edited)
Looking too far ahead - Millman needed to get past Round 1 first...

Unexpected loss I must add, to the tall Italian Roberto Marcora, ranked 216.
Indeed! Was an unexpected loss, but hopefully he can make it up next week. But Marcora has managed to claim a few reasonably highly ranked scalps in the past.
 

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We ?? - You playing Kate? Lol
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
So fun rankings battles going on at both ends of the top 100 - Tomic just jumped over Kyrgios again, now at 30. But Kyrgios can get the lead back if he beats Dimitrov...

And the Kokk now at 114, needs to make the QF to jump over Duckie. Looks to be a pretty tall order - but not altogether impossible (path is beats Monaco then winner of Ferrer/Dodig-Tomic, Baghdatis-Djokovic).
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
There are a few challengers that could affect the exact rankings that Duckworth and Kokkinakis et al end up with next week, but as all the Australians bar JP are now out of play I thought this was a good point to take note of some interesting results in the year to date liverankings (race) before Miami starts.

One shouldn't of course take the race rankings too seriously at this early stage of the season, but still, interesting to look at which ones might be sustained and which not.

So the big leap forwards so far are: Tomic (10); Kyrgios (26), Kokkinakis (45); Duckworth (56); Bolt (116); Barton (132); Mitchell (181); Harris (278); Bouchier (290) and Jasika (306).

Kyrgios has obviously been badly affected by injury breaks and is out for another month, but all the rest should have opportunities to advance again over the next period.

Tomic, Kokkinakis, Duckworth and Jasika are all in play at Miami though whether any of them will be up to much after this weeks efforts has to be a big question mark. Tomic and Kokkinakis though arguably need to do well - Tomic to make up for the clay season which is, shall we say, not his strength, and Kokk to get over the line!

The potential qualifiers, though, face a fairly tough road as the field is jam-packed with talent and Kokkinakis must be pretty exhausted at this point. He really really needs another wildcard, I suspect, if he is going to have a chance to get the around 30 points he needs to make it into the top 100. And after this week, it would be so disappointing if he didn't!

Those going backwards: Matosevic (102); Kubler (219); Hewitt (253); Saville (308).

Kubler and Hewitt's rankings reflect lack of play (Hewitt looks likely to make MD in Miami, but will he play???). For the other two, the season is still young, but the warning bells are obviously ringing. Matosevic and Groth are both in MD for Miami though, so another chance to build.

More or less steady: Groth (73); Millman (168); Smith (204); Thompson (225).

Got to wonder if coaching is one of the factors behind some of the rises, viz Tomic (Roche), Kokkinakis (Stoltenberg) and Barton (Masur)...
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 · (Edited)
Latest rankings now out, and the biggest news is of course Mr Duckworth now officially into the top 100 at 97.

Singles

Other rankings movers of note:

Bouchier up 153 places to 619
Barton up 118 places to 382
Smith up 32 places to 163
Kokkinakis up 16 places to 108
Ebden down another 18 places to 308

The singles list for those in top 200:

Tomic 29
Kyrgios 37
Groth 69
Matosevic 76
Duckworth 97

Hewitt 107
Kokkinakis 108
Millman 137
Kubler 153
Bolt 160
Smith 163
Saville 186

Year to date (race to London) singles rankings continue to look quite entertaining - will be interesting to see how they change as the season goes on:

Tomic 12
Kyrgios 24
Kokkinakis 61
Duckworth 63
Groth 68
Matosevic 95

Doubles:

Groth: 29
Peers : 30
Guccione: 39
Junaid: 78
Smith: 79

Movers of note:

Kokkinakis: up 64 places to 223
Reid: up 28 places to 202

In terms of teams, worth noting that Peers-Murray is now 7 in the race to London.
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
By way of an addendum on the ranking stats this week - doesn't take many points down at the tail end of the rankings, but two aussies top the list of 'movers of the week' - Thomas Fancutt up 817 places to 1277T, and Daniel Hobart, up 784 places to 1067. Oliver Anderson, Aaron Addison and Blake Ellis also made big jumps.
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
Interesting to read the varied writeups of this weeks big rankings moves/performances.

Tomic fanboy Leo Schlink devotes a lot of words to Tomic's ten in the race result; mentions Duckworth and Gavrilova making into top 100, and doesn't bother mentioning anyone else!:http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/t...-in-atp-rankings/story-fnibcgxs-1227277281073

ABC focus on Tomic's real result (viz singles ranking) in top 30 but also highlight Kyrgios still no 2 (lol), plus Duckworth: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-...ing-career-high-ranking/6342548?section=sport

Fairfax ignore the story altogether...
 

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By way of an addendum on the ranking stats this week - doesn't take many points down at the tail end of the rankings, but two aussies top the list of 'movers of the week' - Thomas Fancutt up 817 places to 1277T, and Daniel Hobart, up 784 places to 1067. Oliver Anderson, Aaron Addison and Blake Ellis also made big jumps.
Wow ... if they could just repeat that improvement next week!
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 · (Edited)
To put it in perspective, only represents a rise from 1 ranking point to five for Fancutt for example. And the increase in points needed to jump up the ladder start increasing rapidly from hereon in. Still three futures match wins out of two outings for example in Fancutt's case, is a useful start. And Hobart gets extra brownie points for a win over Brydan Klein on his way to F2 SFs...
 

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Quite a bit of interesting cat and mouse between Ben Mathias' main charges in Miami at the moment in the race to be the Aussie #4 - Duckworth qualifying means that he's leapfrogged Groth in the live rankings, and the higher ranking will go to whoever wins more than the other, or Duckworth if they're equal.

This of course does not take into account what Kokkinakis might do, or indeed if Lleyton can play good tennis for more than a 30 minute stretch...
 
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