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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I dabble in outright markets from time to time without a whole lot of success to be honest. They can be good for trading sometimes but outside some obvious favourites like Nadal on clay it's pretty tough to pick a winner at a decent price.
Anyway, I think it'd be pretty interesting to do an outright pick for every tournament and see how I go over the course of the season.
I expect to lose a lot so this will just be for fun really. I will only be using Starace stakes at most.

If anyone else wants to do the same for fun then feel free to use this thread. For structure I'll say ehhhhhh, 5 units per tournament to divide up as you like, each-way betting optional.
I'll try and put up the market prices when they become available but I'm not going to run a competition and keep track of people's p/l or anything like that.
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 ·
Adelaide:

Code:
Hewitt, L	3.5	3.5	3.5	4	3.75	3.75	3.75	3.5	3.9
Ancic, M	5.5	5.5	5	5.5	6	5.5	4.5	6	5.1
Stepanek, R	7.5	8	8	8	6	7.5	7.5	8	8.4
Mathieu, PH	12	11	11	11	11	9	11	10	12
Tsonga, JW	12	11	13	13	12	13	9	11	14
Del Potro, JM	13	13	15	13	13	13	10	9	16.5
Grosjean, S	13	15	15	17	13	19	15	15	23
Nieminen, J	12	15	13	13	12	13	21	21	14
Querrey, S	26	26	29	26	19	34	34	21	30
Simon, G	29	26	26	26	34	26	21	41	27
Acasuso, J	34	34	34	34	34	41	23	34	36
Gulbis, E	34	26	41	34	51	21	29	29	13
Guccione, C	41	34	34	26	41	29	51	19	36
Becker, B	41	41	41	41	41	41	51	41	42
Falla, A	41	51	51	51	41	51	41	41	55
Zabaleta, M	-	-	-	-	67	-	-	-	-
Benneteau, J	51	51	41	51	51	51	41	67	42
Zverev, M	51	51	67	67	67	51	51	51	65
Mayer, F	51	51	67	67	51	67	51	67	70
Llodra, M	67	67	81	67	81	81	81	41	85
Korolev, E	51	51	67	67	51	51	101	41	70
Sela, D	81	81	101	81	101	51	81	101	110
Spadea, V	81	51	101	67	101	51	51	51	110
Bolelli, S	67	101	126	101	81	101	126	67	130
Russell, M	101	101	101	126	151	151	126	67	110
Hanescu, V	81	101	126	126	101	101	151	81	130
Darcis, S	101	81	151	67	151	101	81	101	150
Smeets, R	151	151	151	151	151	201	151	251	150
Sirianni, J	151	201	201	151	151	251	251	251	200
Gabashvili, T	-	-	-	-	SP	-	-	-	-
Qatar:
Code:
Murray, A	4	4	4	3.5	4	3.5	3.4
Davydenko, N	5	5.5	4.5	6.5	5.5	5.5	4
Robredo, T	7.5	8	7	8	6	8	5
Ljubicic, I	9	9	10	8	6.5	8.5	6
Karlovic, I	12	11	11	11	11	13	6.6
Kiefer, N	15	17	15	13	15	17	10
Tursunov, D	11	13	11	17	15	11	12
Wawrinka, S	13	17	17	17	19	15	-
Kohlschreiber, P	21	21	21	13	19	17	-
Koubek, S	34	34	34	29	34	26	-
Tipsarevic, J	34	34	34	29	34	26	-
Calleri, A	34	34	34	21	34	41	-
Johansson, T	34	26	41	34	29	41	-
Andreev, I	23	26	23	29	26	41	15
Lee, Hyung-Taik	41	51	41	34	51	67	-
Santoro, F	41	41	51	67	41	34	-
Rochus, O	41	51	41	67	41	51	15
Seppi, A	51	51	51	67	51	51	15
Berrer, M	81	67	67	81	81	51	-
Pavel, A	81	81	67	81	101	67	-
Schuettler, R	101	67	101	101	67	67	-
Mirnyi, M	67	101	51	51	126	41	-
Hartfield	101	151	81	201	101	101	-
Volandri, F	101	151	101	201	101	67	-
Hernández, O	201	201	201	301	201	301	-
Montanes, A	151	201	151	301	251	301	-
Ventura, S	151	201	101	201	251	301	-
Haji, Abdulla	-	301	201	301	351	501	-
Chennai:
Code:
Nadal, R	1.66	1.72	1.65	1.66	1.57	1.57	2
Baghdatis, M	5.5	6.5	5.5	6	5	6.5	5
Youzhny, M	6	6.5	5.5	6	7	7.5	5
Moya, C	12	11	12	9	11	9	8
Malisse, X	23	17	26	26	13	21	12
Cilic, M	34	34	34	29	23	29	-
Mahut, N	29	34	29	29	29	29	15
Gicquel, M	34	34	34	34	26	41	15
Melzer, J	29	34	29	34	41	41	15
Vliegen, K	51	51	41	51	41	51	-
Haase, R	67	81	67	51	81	67	-
Muller, G	67	67	67	67	81	51	-
Serra, F	51	51	51	41	81	51	-
Capdeville, P	81	81	81	81	81	101	-
García López, G	81	101	81	101	101	41	-
Troicki, V	101	101	101	101	101	67	-
Ascione, T	101	101	101	101	126	81	-
Gabashvili, T	81	101	81	101	81	126	-
Eschauer, W	126	151	126	201	201	151	-
Gremelmayr, D	126	151	126	101	151	201	-
Navarro, I	126	151	126	201	201	67	-
Roger-Vasselin, E	101	126	101	101	201	126	-
Vanek, J	151	151	151	201	201	151	-
Amritraj, P	151	-	151	201	251	251	-
Montcourt	201	201	201	201	301	151	-
Salva Vidal, B	201	251	201	201	301	301	-
Schukin, Y	151	201	151	201	301	201	-
Vardhan, V	-	401	-	301	301	501	-
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
This week's picks are special DOMA picks brought to you by:


Qatar:

Philip Kohlschreiber 21 2.5U e/w

I'm generally a match-fixing sceptic but I'm pretty sure that Kohli was corrupt as fuck. He has no obvious weakness as far as I can see and hopefully with the publicity over match-fixing he should be fully focussed on actually winning events this year. He's also in a different half to Murray & Davy so should have a decent chance of reaching the final.

Chennai:

1pt e/w Malisee 26, 1.5 e/w Youzhny 7.5

Oh to be a bookie and lay Nadal in a hardcourt event at 1.57. Have no idea what Malisse's physical condition is but for defending champ at that price he's worth a small punt. Youzhny gets the nod over Baggy as the pick from the 2nd half of the draw because of the match-up with Nadal. An in-form MY should school Rafa on a hardcourt and while Baggy should have a decent chance match-up wise his balls seem to shrivel at the mere sight of the Spaniard.

Adelaide:

Hewitt, 5u at 4.

I'll take Hewitt here. Yeah I'm probably being a total mug here and believing all the hype about this guy working his ass off but a 2-time winner with a decent draw looks the pick in a fairly shitty event.
 

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Good luck with this, Henry. As you say, I think you will have a tough time of making it work if you are literally going to play every tournament, in fact I think it will be near impossible. However, if you get off to a decent start, then I'm sure you can put together a pattern that produces a decent hit/ratio rate.

Have a good season. :yeah:
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Cheers jayjay and same to you. Agree totally. I think playing every tournament with proper stakes would be betting suicide which is why this will mostly just be an experiment played with pennies. I'll mention anytime I think the pick is genuinely a great bet worth playing with usual stakes.
 

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I've already put a small stake on Moya to win in Chennai @ 11, considering his record there and a pretty kind draw until the SF. He then should run into Nadal but Nadal has never excelled in this part of the season and Uncle Carlos has beaten him on hardcourt before... basically the way I see it this is like betting on Moya to beat Nadal @ 11 given how kind his draw is and his great record here, which is good value. And if he does beat him and makes the final then it is easy to trade for a profit either way.
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
cheers BG and very unlucky with that Moya pick J.

Sydney:

Code:
Gasquet, R	5.5	6	5.5	6	5.5	6	5.6
Blake, J	6	5	6.5	5	5.5	5	5.5
Hewitt, L	5.5	6	7.5	6	7	6	7
Berdych, T	10	8	6.5	8	9	8	9
Robredo, T	11	8	11	8	10	8	10
Wawrinka, S	11	17	13	17	15	17	15
Mathieu, PH	21	21	17	21	17	21	17
Tsonga, JW	23	17	17	17	17	17	17.5
Stepanek, R	21	21	26	21	21	21	21
Calleri, A	23	19	26	19	26	19	26
Tursunov, D	21	23	26	23	26	23	26
Verdasco, F	23	29	29	29	21	29	21
Del Potro, JM	26	29	26	29	26	29	26
Moya, C	19	34	21	34	21	34	21
Lopez, F	34	34	41	34	26	34	26
Fish, M	34	41	34	41	34	41	34
Grosjean, S	41	34	21	34	41	34	40
Koubek, S	51	41	51	41	41	41	40
Guccione, C	67	51	41	51	67	51	10
Mahut, N	51	67	41	67	51	67	50
Andreev, I	41	51	51	51	67	51	65
Simon, G	51	67	41	67	67	67	65
Santoro, F	51	81	51	81	51	81	50
Seppi, A	67	81	81	81	67	81	65
Sirianni, J	81	67	81	67	67	67	65
Luczak, P	81	101	101	101	151	101	150
Volandri, F	151	201	101	201	151	201	150
Jones, G	-	201	251	201	251	201	250
Auckland:

Code:
Ferrer, D	2.87	2.62	2.75	2.62	2.75	2.75	2.62	2.76
Ancic, M	8	9	9	9	10	8	9	-
Chela, JI	10	7.5	10	7.5	9	9	7.5	9
Johansson, T	13	11	15	11	11	13	11	11.5
Malisse, X	15	17	13	17	15	17	17	-
Nieminen, J	15	19	15	19	17	17	19	17
Kohlschreiber, P	21	19	15	19	19	21	19	-
Monaco, J	15	15	17	15	17	21	15	18
Ferrero, JC	15	23	19	23	21	17	23	15
Cilic, M	23	19	23	19	17	21	19	17
Lee, Hyung-Taik	23	19	23	19	21	26	19	-
Llodra, M	21	19	21	19	21	26	19	21
Almagro, N	21	29	34	29	26	34	29	-
Querrey, S	34	34	29	34	34	26	34	-
Melzer, J	29	34	26	34	26	26	34	26
Acasuso, J	34	29	41	29	26	34	29	26
Benneteau, J	41	41	34	41	34	41	41	34
Rochus, O	34	41	41	41	41	51	41	40
Berrer, M	41	41	67	41	34	51	41	34
Sela, D	67	51	67	51	41	67	51	40
Russell, M	67	51	51	51	51	67	51	50
Mayer, F	67	101	41	101	81	101	101	80
Eschauer, W	101	101	51	101	126	101	101	120
Roitman, S	126	151	101	151	201	151	151	200
Montanes, A	126	251	101	251	201	201	251	200
Hernández, O	201	251	151	251	301	201	251	300
King-Turner, D	201	251	101	251	301	251	251	300
Statham, J	-	351	251	351	401	401	351	400
Sydney:

This is a pretty tough event and it's hard to know who will be motivated the week before the slam. The draw is pretty lop-sided and the top half seems quite a bit stronger so for these 2 reasons I'll give Hewitt a chance to make up for last week's abysmal performance. He needs a confidence boost before the Open and has a nice enough draw with Mahut possibly followed by the Gooch (2 decent match-ups). Berdych is in his section but after his tank-job v Melzer here last year I'm not sure he'll be too bothered. Blake would have been another contender but he's got a tougher draw and I swore to never back him outright again after his choke job v Tojo in Stockholm.

Hewitt e/w 7.5


Auckland:

Much weaker field here and it looks nicely set for Ferrer to defend his title. If he can carry over anything like his form from the end of last year he should have far too much for anyone else in the draw. Kohlschreiber again looks the value e/w pick in the weaker half of the draw but I'll stick with 1 pick here.

Ferrer 2.87, 5u
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Chennai:

1pt e/w Malisee 26, 1.5 e/w Youzhny 7.5

Oh to be a bookie and lay Nadal in a hardcourt event at 1.57. Have no idea what Malisse's physical condition is but for defending champ at that price he's worth a small punt. Youzhny gets the nod over Baggy as the pick from the 2nd half of the draw because of the match-up with Nadal. An in-form MY should school Rafa on a hardcourt and while Baggy should have a decent chance match-up wise his balls seem to shrivel at the mere sight of the Spaniard.
1 winner here but I ballsed up the staking and probably misread the draw to end up betting against myself like that. Easy to say now but I genuinely would've said Youzh was the bet of the week. Just a one unit profit overall. The e/w terms were only 1/3 due to the presence of a (laughably) odds on favourite. Still nice to get off the mark 1st week.
 

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I already picked Ferrer @ 2.55 to win Auckland
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Auckland:

Much weaker field here and it looks nicely set for Ferrer to defend his title. If he can carry over anything like his form from the end of last year he should have far too much for anyone else in the draw. Kohlschreiber again looks the value e/w pick in the weaker half of the draw but I'll stick with 1 pick here.

Ferrer 2.87, 5u
For fuck's sake. Knew I'd regret not sticking with Kohl.

Wiped out this week. Not even close.
 
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No interest in the AO market Henry?

I watched bits of the Nalbandian/Smeets match yesterday and Nalbandian looks a whole lot more fitter, slimmer and was playing well which in itself was amazing given it was the first round of a slam. Granted Smeets was utter tripe though. But there were no signs of the back injury that caused him to pull out of Kooyong last week.

Why he is not 2nd favourite in the betting is beyond me and his current odds of ~ $14 represent overs IMO.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Sorry, meant to post here the other day. I'm still wallowing in the the $21 shot that got away.

My main worry with Nalbandian is the looming 4th round match with Ferrer. I reckon he'd come through it but it will probably be a 4 hour marathon that will take a hell of a lot out of him and with probably Djok and Fed to follow he has quite a mountain to climb.

I can't see past Federer with the way the draw has worked out and I've taken him in a mug's favourite double with Henin at 4.0 to give me some interest in the women's draw as well.
 

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I like Nole to win AO. Or maybe Nalbi but i must see how he is playing. I just can't see Roger win title this year.
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
Fed + Henin lost. Thankfully Henin lost pretty early so I was able to fade Fed later on when I could see how badly he was playing.

Vina del Mar

A tough one to call with most of the big names coming from Australia and probably not having a whole lot of practice on clay. Monaco looks the best player in the tournament and has an ok draw. Potentially tricky opener v Lapentti but after that The King Hernandez is the other seed in his section and shouldn't really pose too many problems. He has 3 titles and 2 qf to defend from his 5 optionals this year so he'll hopefully be looking to get off to a good start. It depends on how he treats the event really. Roitman should produce a few surprises and go deep at a big price (41) but he's in Monaco's half so I'll leave him be.

Juan Monaco 5u 4.5
 

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Good luck, Pico seems the sensible bet. I've gone with Verdasco @ 14 myself for a tiny stake just for a bit of fun, he has a pretty good draw to make at least the semi...
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
Fed + Henin lost. Thankfully Henin lost pretty early so I was able to fade Fed later on when I could see how badly he was playing.

Vina del Mar

A tough one to call with most of the big names coming from Australia and probably not having a whole lot of practice on clay. Monaco looks the best player in the tournament and has an ok draw. Potentially tricky opener v Lapentti but after that The King Hernandez is the other seed in his section and shouldn't really pose too many problems. He has 3 titles and 2 qf to defend from his 5 optionals this year so he'll hopefully be looking to get off to a good start. It depends on how he treats the event really. Roitman should produce a few surprises and go deep at a big price (41) but he's in Monaco's half so I'll leave him be.

Juan Monaco 5u 4.5

ouch.

bad luck Pico Pica
 
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