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against another player yes he's a huge favorite. but vs the field its basically a coin flip. btw they have joker at 25%
 

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Nadal is at least 90% to win RG. There's only one player who could potentially beat him, but he's too big of a mug not to be dragged to 5 setters by unknowns or lose to someone like Schwartzman.
 

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Nadal is at least 90% to win RG. There's only one player who could potentially beat him, but he's too big of a mug not to be dragged to 5 setters by unknowns or lose to someone like Schwartzman.
Actually TseTse Fly is more dangerous for Nadull on RG than Thiem. TseTse is much less of a choker and has better serve/court positioning.
 

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50% chance for a guy who won 13 out of 16 editions (>80%), including last 4 editions. It's tempting to bet on him.
 

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Actually TseTse Fly is more dangerous for Nadull on RG than Thiem. TseTse is much less of a choker and has better serve/court positioning.
No way, Tsitsipas has considerably less power than Thiem, his backhand would be a huge liability.
 
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There is always a possibility of an injury. If that factor is not included then I don't see how anyone could give him only 50% of chances. One thing is certain, it is his slam to lose given his performance last september.
 

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and what is the other 50%????...he gets COVID???...
 

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Bet your house on Wafa for some easy money.

They'll rig the draws and schedule for him even if he is unfit.
 

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I'll put more money on Rafa , than i put on Djokovic for this AO so.. good
 

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Yeah, 50% is quite low, even if it's against the field. Although still months away, it's hard to imagine Nadal losing RG this year, unless he has to withdraw because of broken limbs, or, God forbid, Covid-19. Neither Thiem, Djokovic nor Wawrinka were able to take a set off him in previous finals. Let that sink in.
 

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Yeah, 50% is quite low, even if it's against the field. Although still months away, it's hard to imagine Nadal losing RG this year, unless he has to withdraw because of broken limbs, or, God forbid, Covid-19. Neither Thiem, Djokovic nor Wawrinka were able to take a set off him in previous finals. Let that sink in.
Thiem won a set in the 2019 final.
 
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And gonna b arriving much fresher than after his emotional USO20 win heading into pandemic rescheduled FO20.
 

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50% is a fair percentage, Nadal has declined massively in terms of stamina and physical strength, he can't play 5 sets anymore, he is a massive choker, he can't win a tiebreak anymore, if he's to win another RG, he has to do it in 3 sets matches again, he can't afford to lose more than 1 set, i can easily see him win the first two sets against Thiem 7-5 6-4 then utterly collapse physically and mentally and lose the next three sets.
 

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50% is a fair percentage, Nadal has declined massively in terms of stamina and physical strength, he can't play 5 sets anymore, he is a massive choker, he can't win a tiebreak anymore, if he's to win another RG, he has to do it in 3 sets matches again, he can't afford to lose more than 1 set, i can easily see him win the first two sets against Thiem 7-5 6-4 then utterly collapse physically and mentally and lose the next three sets.
Strange that even his biggest fans have such limited belief in him even on his strongest surface, on his best court.
 
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