Actually TseTse Fly is more dangerous for Nadull on RG than Thiem. TseTse is much less of a choker and has better serve/court positioning.Nadal is at least 90% to win RG. There's only one player who could potentially beat him, but he's too big of a mug not to be dragged to 5 setters by unknowns or lose to someone like Schwartzman.
Thiem won a set in the 2019 final.Yeah, 50% is quite low, even if it's against the field. Although still months away, it's hard to imagine Nadal losing RG this year, unless he has to withdraw because of broken limbs, or, God forbid, Covid-19. Neither Thiem, Djokovic nor Wawrinka were able to take a set off him in previous finals. Let that sink in.
Strange that even his biggest fans have such limited belief in him even on his strongest surface, on his best court.50% is a fair percentage, Nadal has declined massively in terms of stamina and physical strength, he can't play 5 sets anymore, he is a massive choker, he can't win a tiebreak anymore, if he's to win another RG, he has to do it in 3 sets matches again, he can't afford to lose more than 1 set, i can easily see him win the first two sets against Thiem 7-5 6-4 then utterly collapse physically and mentally and lose the next three sets.