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Will Novak Djokovic win at least 25 slams?

  • Definitely

  • There's a fair chance

  • Probably not

  • Not a chance

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Interesting prediction. I'll try to take a simple statistical approach to test it.
The trickiest part is to try to establish a probability of Djokovic winning each of the slams over the next five years.
This is extremely difficult, of course, and the most important unknown.
But, let's take a guess... If I give him these probabilities of winning each of slams starting from tomorrow's French Open to the 2025 US Open:

2020​
French
38%​
2021​
Australian
37%​
2021​
French
19%​
2021​
Wimbledon
31%​
2021​
USO
37%​
2022​
Australian
30%​
2022​
French
17%​
2022​
Wimbledon
26%​
2022​
USO
30%​
2023​
Australian
25%​
2023​
French
15%​
2023​
Wimbledon
22%​
2023​
USO
25%​
2024​
Australian
21%​
2024​
French
14%​
2024​
Wimbledon
19%​
2024​
USO
21%​
2025​
Australian
19%​
2025​
French
13%​
2025​
Wimbledon
17%​
2025​
USO
19%​

As you can see, these probabilities assume a significant decline with age. Under this assumption, the prediction is that he will most likely end up with 22 slams, and the probability distribution is as follows:

357477


Based on these assumptions, his probability of accumulating 25 slams or more is only about 10%. So, the probability that OP's prediction is correct is only 10%.

However, let's alternatively assume that he does not decline over the next 5 years, and that Sinner/Zverev/Tsitsipas/FAA/Shapovalov, etc... don't improve materially, and no one new comes along to pose a threat, and he doesn't get injured.
then the probabilities would be as follows, with the same ones maintained until 2025:
2020​
French
38%​
2021​
Australian
37%​
2021​
French
19%​
2021​
Wimbledon
31%​
2021​
USO
37%​

In this case, he'd be projected to reach 23 to 24 slams.

and the probability distribution looks like this:

357478


In this case, Djokovic's probability of reaching 25 slams is about 31%, which is a fairly good probability.

So, the main conclusion is that, if Djokovic doesn't decline or suffer a career-ending injury, and no other players make a major breakthrough, he has a good (30%) chance to reach at least 25. The prediction is then is definitely bold but also non-crazy.

Some caveats: 1) As with all such approaches, garbage in, garbage out, so it all hinges on my assumptions being correct. 2) I assume that he retires by end of 2025, at age 38. But he could theoretically keep playing. 3) I also assume that the results of each slam are independent of one another. In reality, he may go on a streak of great form, in which case this assumption would be false. 4) My first scenario is obviously far from a worst-case scenario and should not be interpreted as such.
 

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I can see 22 slams, and it is lot from here on out... but he needs to stay injury free (no more such a niggling one like the elbow from June 2016 till Jan 2018), motivated, well-scheduled and hungry. No major coach changes like in 2017-18, if he still has the winning formula.
Also needs to win at least 2-3 more AOs, as he has the most success there and even the brand new surface (GreenSet) liked his game very much. Also at least 2 more WBs, at least 1 more RG.
Any USO wins would be just gravy as people used to say.

As for at least 25 slams, it will take real dedication, a not-so-steadily decline and no real threatening competition.
This all is far from guaranteed, so I am cautious to predict anything beyond 22.
 

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25 slams and 300+ weeks at no1. 2 slams per year for the next 3 years is very doable. 4 of the last 5 years (possibly 5 years out of 6 depending on today's result) have all been multi-slam winning Novak years.
 

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I am huge fan of Nole but 25 is brutal overkill :) Let give him even todays title that is still 7 more to take. Considering he has 3 chances every year (RG is more of a exception) that is still 2 strong years to go and judging this last years he always only make 2 slams per year so actually he needs to go strong 3 or 4 seasons from now. I only see he has maximum of two years of peak tennis ahead of him, he is not gonna be any younger and strong mind will be overtake by age soon. Struggles that emerged only briefly during this tournament will have more impact in coming years.
 

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I think he needs a reason to go past, say 23 Slams. At 23 Slams, there is a sizeable gap to fed at 20. If Nadal and Nole are still trading Slams in the next few years, 25 should be about right. The reason why we are in this situation is because none of the goats are retired, they are pushing each other, nobody dares to retire. We need to think about how Nadal and Djokovic are actually going to bow out of the sport? They are going to be neck and neck pretty much on slams, who retires before who? They are going to just be playing one or two Slams a year as they reach retirement because there bodys will be broken but they will be desperate to win another slam if the tallys are close between them. I don't think we really have thought about how they are going to retire? Are they going to trick each other and come out of retirement at the last minute, with Rafa secretley training for the French Open and he just makes a surprise last minute wild card
I think Federer will retire after 2021 and Nadal after 2022. Come on, they wont play slams semis or finals after age of 35, 36 and ending in QF stage is not enough for them.
 

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I am huge fan of Nole but 25 is brutal overkill :) Let give him even todays title that is still 7 more to take. Considering he has 3 chances every year (RG is more of a exception) that is still 2 strong years to go and judging this last years he always only make 2 slams per year so actually he needs to go strong 3 or 4 seasons from now. I only see he has maximum of two years of peak tennis ahead of him, he is not gonna be any younger and strong mind will be overtake by age soon. Struggles that emerged only briefly during this tournament will have more impact in coming years.
He needs to have at least 1 season with triple slams again (like 2011 + 15).
A mental decline I don't really foresee till 40, but a physical one is on the cards even with the best care and dedication. Let's see if Djokovic can be an exception also there as he showed no major injury since his return in early 2018, and only some minor niggles, they also seemed to not affect his game all too much.
 

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Laver also had pretty good longevity. Of course, Novak’s muscles are toned and stronger (sexier) than Laver’s, even though people keep calling him a stickman.
 

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I think Federer will retire after 2021 and Nadal after 2022. Come on, they wont play slams semis or finals after age of 35, 36 and ending in QF stage is not enough for them.
So if the difference between them is 1 slam, or if Nadal and Nole are on 21 Slams, they are going to gracefully retire? There body's may not want to win another but their minds will be desperate. Its almost like they are trapped by this grand slam tally. They could even just play one or two Slams a year as they reach retirement. Take 6 months out and go all out for an extra slam. They won't bow out until they have to
 

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Nothing bold about this. 24/25 is what im expecting. Its the number that will definitively make him the goat.
 

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In light on the conversation I'm enjoying with member Rik, I'm happy to put this prediction down here to be revisited in a few years time.

The way I see it is that Novak Djokovic has unprecedented longevity and that Roger Federer can forget about holding on to the slam record. Rafael Nadal may overtake Roger Federer and enjoy the lead for a short period of time, but it will be short-lived.

I'm fairly certain with this prediction, so let's hear what you think. Let's see who knows their ATP tennis and let's see who has a lot to learn.
Djokovic will probably never win the AO ever again.
He was down 2-sets-to-1 in the AO Final vs. slamless Thiem.....
Now that Thiem has won the US Open he'll be able to handle the occasion better and finish-off Djokovic (and Thiem has already beaten Djokovic twice at Roland Garros anyway).
And the AO is perfect for Thiem because its at the start of the year, so Thiem won't be as worn-out (Thiem is usually worn-out at slams and looks tired in the Final).
I think Thiem will win several AOs.
And Djokovic has only won ONE of the last FIVE US Opens.
So that means all of Djokovic's hopes are at Wimbledon.....and Federer had matchpoints vs. Djokovic at 2019 Wimbledon.....and Nadal was within 10-8 5th Set vs. Djokovic at 2018 Wimbledon (and the roof was closed).
Djokovic may not even reach 20 slams.
Whereas Nadal is winning the French Open easily, and has won 2 of the last 3 US Opens he's played.
And Nadal said this year in an interview that he'd like to retire with 25 slams.
 

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Djokovic will probably never win the AO ever again.
He was down 2-sets-to-1 in the AO Final vs. slamless Thiem.....
Now that Thiem has won the US Open he'll be able to handle the occasion better and finish-off Djokovic (and Thiem has already beaten Djokovic twice at Roland Garros anyway).
And the AO is perfect for Thiem because its at the start of the year, so Thiem won't be as worn-out (Thiem is usually worn-out at slams and looks tired in the Final).
I think Thiem will win several AOs.
And Djokovic has only won ONE of the last FIVE US Opens.
So that means all of Djokovic's hopes are at Wimbledon.....and Federer had matchpoints vs. Djokovic at 2019 Wimbledon.....and Nadal was within 10-8 5th Set vs. Djokovic at 2018 Wimbledon (and the roof was closed).
Djokovic may not even reach 20 slams.
Whereas Nadal is winning the French Open easily, and has won 2 of the last 3 US Opens he's played.
And Nadal said this year in an interview that he'd like to retire with 25 slams.
... Fellow posters please stop reading his usual drivel after the 2nd bolded underline as yet again he discredits Novak for actually beating the player that beat Nadal... and then won the slam... That's not good enough in Nadalalot's eyes as it's much much more admirable to do what Nadal did ie... take him to a 4th set tiebreak which is much more heroic.

...
 

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25 definitely not.

It takes so much to win a Grand Slam and so many things can happen (US Open 2020). If Novak loses today he would just have won 1 Grand Slam season after he almost won every match this year... Of course it was bad luck because Wimbledon wasn't played because of Corona. But still if he loses today he just wins 1 of 3 Grand Slams this season.

You guys have to be realistic. I can see him winning 21/22 but 25 is not realistic.

In tennis so many things can change very fast.
 

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Discussion Starter · #38 ·
25 definitely not.

It takes so much to win a Grand Slam and so many things can happen (US Open 2020). If Novak loses today he would just have won 1 Grand Slam season after he almost won every match this year... Of course it was bad luck because Wimbledon wasn't played because of Corona. But still if he loses today he just wins 1 of 3 Grand Slams this season.

You guys have to be realistic. I can see him winning 21/22 but 25 is not realistic.

In tennis so many things can change very fast.
😂

Why do people say this?

And particularly regarding this context, it's anything but true.
 

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The younger generations are fairly weak (either tennistically or mentally or both), so anything is possible.
 
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