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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

Close, but no cigar for ADF
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

Will Mikael Ymer finally be in top 100? He has a chance with just QF in Orleans, and he is going to play against Donskoy there. If he reach SF he is a lock but he will need to defeat Sinner/Bedene in quarterfinals.

I would be pleased if Sinner get into the top 100 before the end of the year.
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

Will Mikael Ymer finally be in top 100? He has a chance with just QF in Orleans, and he is going to play against Donskoy there. If he reach SF he is a lock but he will need to defeat Sinner/Bedene in quarterfinals.

I would be pleased if Sinner get into the top 100 before the end of the year.
Quite surprised Ymer beat Ivashka on an indoor court. If he can beat him, he should be able to move past Donskoy too.
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

I don't really get what is surprising. Mikael is an excellent Indoor player with some solid references, beating Verdasco 6-2 6-1 at the age of 18 and forcing a tight 3rd set with Sascha a year before. Adding to all that the fact that Ivashka is still in the process of coming back from his injury and definitely not 100% (17 DFs yesterday).

It is certain that Mikael will enter the top 100 at the latest in Stockholm. The question then is can he stay in early 2020 when he will have quite some points to defend.
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

I don't really get what is surprising. Mikael is an excellent Indoor player with some solid references, beating Verdasco 6-2 6-1 at the age of 18 and forcing a tight 3rd set with Sascha a year before. Adding to all that the fact that Ivashka is still in the process of coming back from his injury and definitely not 100% (17 DFs yesterday).

It is certain that Mikael will enter the top 100 at the latest in Stockholm. The question then is can he stay in early 2020 when he will have quite some points to defend.
Ymer lacks weapons so why you would call him an "excellent indoor player" is unclear to me. Anyone with a good attacking game should be able to beat him on this surface.

Ivashka has been back for a while now. I am not sure what Ivashka's injury was though and if it can explain that outrageous amount of DFs.
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

Ymer lacks weapons so why you would call him an "excellent indoor player" is unclear to me. Anyone with a good attacking game should be able to beat him on this surface.

Ivashka has been back for a while now. I am not sure what Ivashka's injury was though and if it can explain that outrageous amount of DFs.
-I don't get what is unclear. I gave you some examples of relatively good performance that occured when his game was not as mature as today. Another example is his record Indoor (57-23) with 71.25% wins. While this has to be attenuated by the Futures he played early in his career vs very few ATP matches, this is still a good indicator at the Challenger level which is the one we are talking about here.

Again, I don't really get what you mean by "lacks weapons". This is very abstract to me. He has above average return games stats, a very good backhand and can hold serve quite well against average receiving players. Having a big serve with a good forehand does not mean you are a better Indoor player than a Mikael Ymer type of player. Its good to be able to hold serve most of the time like Donskoy can. But if you can't break because you are weaker than average on return games, this is fully offset.

I think the best way to look at how good a player can be on a surface is data. The rest is very much subjective.
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

-I don't get what is unclear. I gave you some examples of relatively good performance that occured when his game was not as mature as today. Another example is his record Indoor (57-23) with 71.25% wins. While this has to be attenuated by the Futures he played early in his career vs very few ATP matches, this is still a good indicator at the Challenger level which is the one we are talking about here.

Again, I don't really get what you mean by "lacks weapons". This is very abstract to me. He has above average return games stats, a very good backhand and can hold serve quite well against average receiving players. Having a big serve with a good forehand does not mean you are a better Indoor player than a Mikael Ymer type of player. Its good to be able to hold serve most of the time like Donskoy can. But if you can't break because you are weaker than average on return games, this is fully offset.

I think the best way to look at how good a player can be on a surface is data. The rest is very much subjective.
I think it's entirely nonsensical to use data that are predominantly based on Futures to generate expectations for performance in one of the strongest Challengers of the season. His results at indoor events at Challengers or up have not been great. If you use faulty or illogical data, I reckon your results will be more biased than if you actually took the time to analyze players' games.

Yes, Ymer has a very solid baseline game. He can return well. I am not disputing that he is a strong player, but his game is not based on dictating play. He does not have the type of game that normally does best on an indoor court. I would favor him against Ivashka on slower surfaces, but not in Orléans.

I wasn't talking about Donskoy in the post you cited, so I am not sure why you brought him up. I actually had already mentioned that I expected he'd be able to beat him.

Anyway, we both analyze things differently. They are both valid approaches. We can agree to disagree :shrug:
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

Younger Ymer on provisional #100, but still far from being safe with 5 players behind him still in play. Bedene / Sinner next, will be tough as hell for him to stay where he is now. Must count on other players' failures.
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

After Harris' win today, Ymer is back at 101 and needs another win to reach the top 100.
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

Congratulations to Mikael on reaching the milestone ! I really thought that Elias would do it faster, but he completely lost the plot (0-3 on ATP level, 0-3 in GS qualies, one small challenger final in 2019). Mikael was at least extremely solid in challengers this season. Well deserved !
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

I think it's entirely nonsensical to use data that are predominantly based on Futures to generate expectations for performance in one of the strongest Challengers of the season. His results at indoor events at Challengers or up have not been great. If you use faulty or illogical data, I reckon your results will be more biased than if you actually took the time to analyze players' games.

Yes, Ymer has a very solid baseline game. He can return well. I am not disputing that he is a strong player, but his game is not based on dictating play. He does not have the type of game that normally does best on an indoor court. I would favor him against Ivashka on slower surfaces, but not in Orléans.

I wasn't talking about Donskoy in the post you cited, so I am not sure why you brought him up. I actually had already mentioned that I expected he'd be able to beat him.

Anyway, we both analyze things differently. They are both valid approaches. We can agree to disagree :shrug:
Not sure it is about the type of analysis but rather the basis of it. I'm not gonna answer on each and every of your points and considering what just happened for Mikael I don't think I need to. But "predominantly based on Futures" is just wrong if you look at the sample its mainly based on Challengers.

More generally I am fighting the idea that if a player offers something different than the typical Big Serve + Attacking first shots on an Indoor court, he "lacks weapons". The past 2 matches showed us that Good Attacking game surely wins points but Better Defense seems to win matches.
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

Suddenly, out of the blue - Salvatore Caruso is one win away from Top100.

Plays Kovalik in the final, a little bit 50-50 match imo.
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

Caruso :yeah:

Singing his way up to the Top100
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

Ymer lacks weapons so why you would call him an "excellent indoor player" is unclear to me. Anyone with a good attacking game should be able to beat him on this surface.
Sorry but can't let go quote of the year right here, given that the guy can't lose since then.. - "Anyone with a good attacking game" probably does not apply to Bedene, Tsonga, Barrere, Otte, Vesely then
 

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Re: New to the top 100 - 2019 [18] Hoang, Koepfer, Paul & Barrere enter

Sorry but can't let go quote of the year right here, given that the guy can't lose since then.. - "Anyone with a good attacking game" probably does not apply to Bedene, Tsonga, Barrere, Otte, Vesely then
You seem to be missing the point on purpose. I never said that Ymer would always lose. Nor did I even come close to implying that. All I said is that anyone with a good attacking game should be able to beat Ymer. That is to say, anyone at or close to their peak will beat Ymer at his peak. I really don't think there's any disputing it. Ymer is a very limited player and only dangerous because he defends so well. I'll admit that his serve has improved a lot though this season compared to last.

Clearly Ymer is playing at his peak now (I don't think there's much more room for progress left for his current game style; the only option I see is to bulk up and become more aggressive); Bedene and Tsonga certainly weren't. I didn't see the other matches so I cannot comment, but I doubt Vesely was.
 

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By the way, judging from your comments I very much doubt whether you actually watched any of his matches. All you seem to be doing is looking at recent results and at statistics.
 
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