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Discussion Starter #1
I'm concerned with it.

For Roland Garos he will be seeded 7th, lowest seeding in last decade almost.

I'm thinking about where he will be seeded for Wimbledon. In worst case scenario, if he wins RG and closest competitors like Berdych, Nishikori fails, then he could enter in top 4 again.

Assuming he's 4th ranked player heading to Wimbledon, where he will be seeded based on his grass performance last year? Is it possible that he will be seeded lower/ outside of top 4 due to poor showing on grass last year?
 

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He should be seeded 10 at the best. Really a waste of seed. He will likely lose to a 100+ player in first couple of rounds. Like he did previous 3 years. He is only worse now.
 
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No exact numbers, but compared to those who vie for him for top 4 seed, he has poorer grass results over the past two years, so yes he can end without one
 

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He should be in the top 8, no? But I don't expect him to do well unless he gets into the second week when the grass dries up. I think he needs to learn to hit the ball flatter when called for.
 

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Raonic for example will have improved seeding thanks to his last year Wimbledon, almost everybody will add some serious points, all but Nadal..
 

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Discussion Starter #6
No exact numbers, but compared to those who vie for him for top 4 seed, he has poorer grass results over the past two years, so yes he can end without one
Wimbledon uses performance on grass over last two years for for deciding seeds? What is exact formula for it?
 

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most likely outside top 8, with not defending 2000 points from RG + other guys having additional points for grass from last 2 years. But why are we discussing his seedings for Wimbledon, it´s totally irelevant, he can loose to 60% of players there. At RG it has some meaning, because in-form Nadal should be playing F with Novak and not loosing to him or beating him in QF for example, but discussing Wimby - really who cares if he goes there as No.4 or No.9, draw doesn´t matter here
 

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Wimbledon uses performance on grass over last two years for for deciding seeds? What is exact formula for it?
For grass, something along the lines "points from grass tournaments in the past year 100% and 75 % of points in the year before". Normal ranking points I guess are just added to the mix as they are.
 

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For grass, something along the lines "points from grass tournaments in the past year 100% and 75 % of points in the year before". Normal ranking points I guess are just added to the mix as they are.
Yes that is correct. Here is the formula used last year (and since 2002). I am sure it will be the same this year.

http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/about_aeltc/201205091336574376496.html

wimbledon said:
Men's Seeding Formula

Revised seeding arrangements for men introduced in 2001 when seedings committee disbanded. Formula amended in 2002 for men as follows:

Take ESP points at 16 June 2014

Add 100% points earned for all grass court tournament in past 12 months

Add 75% points earned for best grass court tournament in 12 months before that.
 
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Unless he won or at least reach Roland Garros final again, he most likely will be seeded #11, behind Cilic and Dimitrov.

You know, Wimbledon's ranking is different, last year's results on grass also count for the ranking.

Being seeded #5 or #12 in a slam is almost the same thing though. Only difference you get a lower seed in R3, but currently these lower seeds include Kyrgios, Karlovic and Tomic. :shrug:
 

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^^Thanks Chico and Net Cord


Worst case Scenario if he wins RG and Queens: Total points= 4570+ 180+ 8+ 500= 5258. Berdych, Nishikori are sitting around 5200 ranking points now. Nishikori will definitely add the points in RG, Berdych will maintain it making QF again most probably. It's very unlikely that Nadal will get top 4 seeding in Wimbledon.
 

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^^Thanks Chico and Net Cord


Worst case Scenario if he wins RG and Queens: Total points= 4570+ 180+ 8+ 500= 5258. Berdych, Nishikori are sitting around 5200 ranking points now. Nishikori will definitely add the points in RG, Berdych will maintain it making QF again most probably. It's very unlikely that Nadal will get top 4 seeding in Wimbledon.
Your sum for Nadal is not exactly right, but the thing is Nishikori most likely will be the seed #4 in Wimbledon, since he was defeated R1 of Roland Garros last year and will add at least a R16 or QF this year in his rankings.

Apart from Federer, Murray and Djokovic, only Raonic and Dimitrov has huge points to add in the grass rankings from the previous years. But they most likely won't contend for the 4th seed. Raonic would need at least a SF (he's currently injured) and Dimitrov would need to win the FO in order to contend for the 4th seed at Wimby. :lol:
 

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Unless he won or at least reach Roland Garros final again, he most likely will be seeded #11, behind Cilic and Dimitrov.

You know, Wimbledon's ranking is different, last year's results on grass also count for the ranking.

Being seeded #5 or #12 in a slam is almost the same thing though. Only difference you get a lower seed in R3, but currently these lower seeds include Kyrgios, Karlovic and Tomic. :shrug:
:lol:

I think, even if he wins RG, his most realistic seeding will 7 or 8

If he loses RG Final with 800 points drop his seeding will be 9-10

SF Loss: 12

QF Loss: 12

I think he can't fall below 12 unless loses in very rounds of RG and gains nothing in Queens. At least he will avoid fourth round clash with Top 4 players. :worship:
 

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^^Thanks Chico and Net Cord


Worst case Scenario if he wins RG and Queens: Total points= 4570+ 180+ 8+ 500= 5258. Berdych, Nishikori are sitting around 5200 ranking points now. Nishikori will definitely add the points in RG, Berdych will maintain it making QF again most probably. It's very unlikely that Nadal will get top 4 seeding in Wimbledon.
Nadal is playing Stuttgart as well. So that's 250 more points he could win, bringing the total to 5463 (minus 45 Barcelona points).

But Berdych and Nishikori have their own grass points from 2014 and 2013 to add to their tally.

Berdych: 2014 Wim R3 (90) + 2014 Queen's QF (45) + 2013 Wim QF (360*0.75) = 405
Nishikori: 2014 Wim R4 (180) + 2014 Halle SF (90) + 2013 Wim R3 (90*0.75) = 337.5

Worst case scenario for Nishikori is, he ends up with 5220 ESP + 338 = 5558. Nishikori is safely ahead of Nadal no matter what.
Worse case scenario for Berdych is, he ends up with 4880 ESP + 405 = 5285. Berdych needs 188 points between RG and grass warmups.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
Nadal is playing Stuttgart as well. So that's 250 more points he could win, bringing the total to 5963 (minus 45 Barcelona points).
No. 5258 points were including Queens too. Maximum points will be around 5500 or 5450 if you subtract Barcelona points.

But Berdych and Nishikori have their own grass points from 2014 and 2013 to add to their tally.

Berdych: 2014 Wim R3 (90) + 2014 Queen's QF (45) + 2013 Wim QF (360*0.75) = 405
Nishikori: 2014 Wim R4 (180) + 2014 Halle SF (90) + 2013 Wim R3 (90*0.75) = 337.5

Nishikori is at 5220 defending 10 points (R1) at RG, and Berdych is at 5230 and defending 360 RG points (QF).
This means Nishikori needs to earn 415 points to equal Nadal's points, and Berdych 688 points. I think Nishikori can do this. Not so sure about Berdych.
Nishikori will be comfortably ahead of him even if he loses in first round again while Berdych has to to defend QF points.
 

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Unless he won or at least reach Roland Garros final again, he most likely will be seeded #11, behind Cilic and Dimitrov.

You know, Wimbledon's ranking is different, last year's results on grass also count for the ranking.

Being seeded #5 or #12 in a slam is almost the same thing though. Only difference you get a lower seed in R3, but currently these lower seeds include Kyrgios, Karlovic and Tomic.


I think, even if he wins RG, his most realistic seeding will 7 or 8

If he loses RG Final with 800 points drop his seeding will be 9-10

SF Loss: 12

QF Loss: 12

I think he can't fall below 12 unless loses in very rounds of RG and gains nothing in Queens. At least he will avoid fourth round clash with Top 4 players.
Yeah, he won't fall to #13-16, unless he loses early and Monfils beat Simon in RG's final or something like that.
 

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No. 5258 points were including Queens too. Maximum points will be around 5500 or 5450 if you subtract Barcelona points.



Nishikori will be comfortably ahead of him even if he loses in first round again while Berdych has to to defend QF points.
Yes, I made a mistake in my calculations. Check the edited post.

I don't think it matters though because Djokovic, Federer, and Murray will take the Top 3 seeds. Someone other than Nadal (probably Nishikori) will be the fourth seed.

Nadal will be somewhere between #5 and #12, and there is effectively no difference when your seed is in that range.
 
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