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How long can Nadal hold on to #1

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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)

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I couldn't be any happier :) Fully deserved achievement this year. As ATP Finals are yet again another blow for Rafa, it is nice to have something to be happy about!
Bravo Rafa!
 
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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
I think if he stays healthy there is solid chance he can hold on to it until Indian Wells/Miami because Djokovic has plenty of points to gain there. If he survives that timespan, he probably can ride until after RG 2020 because given that he can gain a lot in MC-Barca-Madrid..
 

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Finally, it evens out what happened last year. I'm very happy. Being modest, I voted all of 2020 calendar year. ??
 

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Well I want to see him beat Tsitsipas to clinch another 4 weeks at #1. Even if he is still eliminated. That gets him 210.

ATP Cup has 775 for undefeated champ. It is still very close at the top there with Djokovic. Every point and every match means something. YEC, ATP Cup, AO, all very tenuous situations. Of course if Djoker loses early in AO, then Rafa can hold it arguably till Wimbledon cause he can make up a lot on clay after he did not win MC, Barca, or Madrid.

Nightmare scenario: Fed wins YEC and wins AO. Now he has 9310. Rafa loses to Tsitsipas in London, and loses in SF in AO. Now Rafa has 9305. Not only Fed gets to 21 slams, now he also gets back to #1 and extends beyond 310!!!! With Fed not playing ATP Cup, those extra points might be the only thing protecting Rafa or Nole from losing #1 to 500 year old Federer

So anything can happen, there is a lot at stake not just rest of this week but very early in the season next year. And if it is neck and neck, we may see Fed, Nadal, and Djokovic all bouncing back and forth between 1,2,3 all year long, this guy gets a week, that guy gets a week, etc., and the history and narratives shifting with them. Very exciting tennis times as a fan.

But let's focus on Tsitsipas first.
 

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First things first, it depends on his run at ATP Finals; he is not finished here yet. Rafa could still earn 1,100 more points - 200 points vs. Tsitsipas + 400 points for SF win + 500 points for the title.

Just listing out the possibility since Rafa is still not out from the Finals event.
 

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Rafa has a lot of points to gain after Australia until Rome.

He only defends 1305 points from a possible 5000 Points! (Acapulco, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid).
 

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Rafa has a lot of points to gain after Australia.

He only defends 1305 points from a possible 5000 Points! (Acapulco, Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid).
Yeah, but Djokovic is also only defending 135 points from Indian Wells and Miami...
 

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Even if Djokovic is the one player most likely to win 2020 Aust Open..... it is still more likely someone else will win it than he wins again. That would build a gap that could last until French Open, when the situation is somewhat reversed.
 

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Yeah, but Djokovic is also only defending 135 points from Indian Wells and Miami...
Indeed. Djokovic claim to take back the #1 early next year depends entirely on Australia.

A bad performance there and it would be really hard to take it back.

Rafa only defends 360 points from Indian Wells + Miami so barely a 200 points difference.
 
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