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This is based on the Next Gen are hugely overrated and none are remotely capable of winning Majors on Hard court let alone specialised surfaces like clay and grass.

Djokovic cannot handle Nadal if the ball bounces high, last meeting off GreenSet was a bagel and breadstick for Nadal and Federer is out until at least Wimbledon.

There is literally nobody with a prayer of beating Nadal, bar Djokovic nobody even likely to get a set off him.

Nadal not the player he was in his heyday (2010) but he is that far ahead of the rest on clay he should really be aiming for a undefeated season on clay this year.
 

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Well I'd say it's less of a certainty than Nadal not winning the Year End Championships this year, at least.
 

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Wait, there is a difference between certainty for FO and being undefeated on clay for an entire year.

RG is a safe bet. THE CLAY EMPEROR is locked in for his lucky number 13. People with triskaidekaphobia should do something else that day and Federer fans of course because 20 will fall down with such pure ballstriking and certainty, Federer could only wish for to have. LONG LIVE THE KING.

But giving last clay season it is highly doubtful that Nadal will be in the zone during every clay tournament. He practically even gifted a set to his arch rival Djokovic in Rome.
 

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Nadal isnt getting younger. Nadal is at about 1.90 odds to win it, and I think thats correct, a bit over 50% chance. But both Thiem and Djockovic can challenge him, he was lucky in the draw last year with only one serious contender against him in Thiem in the final. Its something like 40% chance that he plays Thiem in the semis and Djokovic in the final. Thiem can stretch him to five and make the 33 year old a nice undercooked pieace of fish for Djockovic to eat. Nadal isnt young, with a serious of long matches fatigue can be a factor. Then there is the Söderling factor, i.e random semi.young players that suddenly find a peak level of ballbashing agaisnt Nadal. Khachanov, Struff etc could randomly ballbash away Nadal. Fognini could beat him, so could Hurkacz, tsitsipas etc.

Nadal is favourite, but, the tournament is no foregone conclusion
 

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I am not a guy to make excuses, but he was playing an obviously exhausted Djokovic in Rome and still lost a set. He is 90% to win it again, and only Novak could stop him in final solely because of versatility of the game that he possesses and a belief he can do it. Thing is, Novak is less likely to reach the final, he is vulnerable against NexGenners.
Thiem, no disrespect, would lose again, because he can't possibly constantly sustain required high level of play to beat Rafa over Bo5. He gave it all last year and mustered up a set, then lost the next two looking empty. I'd love to see RG Djokodal final once again, it's the ultimate tennis challenge for Novak, I am super hyped for those, even though there are slim chances of him winning there.
 

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Good thread. We need more of these, just in case... ;)
 

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Nadal isnt getting younger. Nadal is at about 1.90 odds to win it, and I think thats correct, a bit over 50% chance. But both Thiem and Djockovic can challenge him, he was lucky in the draw last year with only one serious contender against him in Thiem in the final. Its something like 40% chance that he plays Thiem in the semis and Djokovic in the final. Thiem can stretch him to five and make the 33 year old a nice undercooked pieace of fish for Djockovic to eat. Nadal isnt young, with a serious of long matches fatigue can be a factor. Then there is the Söderling factor, i.e random semi.young players that suddenly find a peak level of ballbashing agaisnt Nadal. Khachanov, Struff etc could randomly ballbash away Nadal. Fognini could beat him, so could Hurkacz, tsitsipas etc.

Nadal is favourite, but, the tournament is no foregone conclusion
Nadal is not clay young for five years now. Where have you been all these year's ? He destroys everyone. The end was the same. Djokovic was the last one to beat him in straight sets and that was five years ago.
 

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It will be a very special tournament, first time ever Rafa will start the French Open knowing he can finally tie Roger's slam record. Could be fascinating to watch.
 

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Lets see, nadal won this tournament 12 times in the last 15 years(and in one of them he withdrew because of injury). I see no reason why he is considered such a big favorite, nothing special here at all, nope.

RN 20- 20 RF in june 2020
 

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"Certain" or "certainty" means 100%. Rafa does not have a 100% win record at RG, but he has about 98% win-loss record there. If he was certain to win, he would have a 100% winning record or would have won 15 titles in 15 years at RG, but he won 12 titles in 15 years.

Rafa is not "certain" to win, but he is highly likely or more likely to win than any other player. But, OP, will you at least wait for the European clay court season to begin before throwing out such statements?
 

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He can win FO, Rome, Montecarlo etc... Fact remains that last time he won a match against Djokovic outside of a clay court was in 2013. That's quite sobering.
 

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No guarantee at his age. But obviously he is the heavy favorite especial with the motivation to tie Fed. 90% odds he will tie Fed at the RG. Only Thiem tops him and he's injured from what I hear
 

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Thiem can beat Nadal if he's on his side of the draw. If he has to beat Djokovic first and then Nadal it won't happen. It can happen if somebody beats Djokovic first, but it would help Thiem playing Nadal on the SF rather than the final. I don't see Djokovic beating Nadal on RG this year.
 

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No guarantee at his age. But obviously he is the heavy favorite especial with the motivation to tie Fed. 90% odds he will tie Fed at the RG. Only Thiem tops him and he's injured from what I hear
C'mon Set , whatever happened to the inflated era posts of yours??
 
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