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Del Potro v Lopez

Del Potro put 70% of first serves in yesterday, hit 21 aces and saved all 5 break points he faced in a tough encounter with Massu. That seems to suggest his serve is working well at least (he saved all 5 bp's he faced against Garcia-Lopez on Saturday too). He schooled Feli 1 and 2 when they met in Memphis and has a good overall record against lefties (13-5 ignoring his drubbings by Nadal). He's gone well in Masters Events this year with a 10-5 MD record and with the exception of Dancevic at home in Canada it has been top players that he has fallen to every time (Moya, Gasquet, Bandy and Nadal). My main concern is that the Massu match will have taken a lot out of him and he's always liable to retire so probably best to play this at a 2 set/match-complete book. Will definitely be laying to cover my stake if I'm around and he goes sub 1.1 after falling foul of some major chokes last week

JMDP - 2.15


Ancic v Mathieu

These 2 met in Madrid with Ancic coming through pretty comfortably in straight sets and if my memory serves me correctly he didn't face a single break point. PHM obviously isn't the strongest mentally so won't be coming into this with a lot of confidence after that match. "Home advantage" is often overrated and I think the price on Ancic reflects that. There's a new surface this year but with Querrey coming through qualifiers and dropping only 2 points on first serve against Acasuso it seems like conditions should suit the big servers. There are however slight doubts about Ancic's physical state and I think he complained of dizziness against Youzhny so again probably best to play with a 2 sets or match complete book.


Mario - 1.8
 
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hmm are you sure these courts will suit the bigger servers after the change in court surface from prior years?

I know Querrey beat Chucho yesterday but that was more down to the fact that Chucho doesn't play the big serving types well. Querrey was also broken a few times in his previous qualifying match against some French WC last week as well. Also look at those who got dumped in qualifying - Beast, Berrer and Becker.

Apparently the courts are meant to have more of a 'loopier' bounce as well. I'm sure Julio can confirm this later.
 
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It's also going to be interesting to see how the 'big guns' Federer, Djokovic and Nadal treat this tournament which in the past has been nothing but a glorified Masters event given many of the top players decide to skip it since it is 10 days before the TMC. Given the ATP's new bonus incentive a cynic could suggest that the only reason they are playing is to collect their bonus and piss off to Shanghai ASAP to prepare for next week.

Should be an interesting week, we could get an outsider who wins this tournament like in 2005 should that be the attitude of the Top 3.
 

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Only Ancic @ 1.78 for me

I also took Monaco whom my bookie had scheduled for today.. meanwhile he got scheduled for tomorrow and his price rose up probably because a lot of gamblers jumped on Nieminen, too bad I didn't wait :(
 

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Only Ancic @ 1.78 for me

I also took Monaco whom my bookie had scheduled for today.. meanwhile he got scheduled for tomorrow and his price rose up probably because a lot of gamblers jumped on Nieminen, too bad I didn't wait :(
Normally I would agree with your picks as you have been right on but Ancic has been complaining of dizziness and fatigue especially in his clear loss to Youzhny...that makes it a no bet for me but good luck...
 

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some nice matches today but all no bets if you ask me...I don't bet on Mathieu matches normally and this time with Ancic as a fav but with Mathieu's home advantage and Ancic fatigue it has no bet written all over it. Fish vs Tursunov between two headcases is a clear no bet in my book as well and despite the fact that I like Kiefer vs Wawrinka I will stay away from laying an in form player as Wawrinka.

Looking at the other matches:
JMDP vs Lopez: Lopez in better form but JMDP serving well and having played qualifiers already. Lopez probably getting tired as well. Another no bet..

Seppi vs Querrey: again two headcases and both qualifiers..surface is in advantage of Querrey but I can't see anything decent about this match..coinflip.

Ferrero-Baggy could go either way, tipsa vs spadea the same thing with an edge to tipsa nd I don't trust Youzhny in his current form either..especially against Clement in France..

For the fans it's a great card, for better it's simply terrible..
 

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Fish to win the 1st set @ 3.2 at deuce
 

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Normally I would agree with your picks as you have been right on but Ancic has been complaining of dizziness and fatigue especially in his clear loss to Youzhny...that makes it a no bet for me but good luck...
I didn't know about that :eek: I just thought that Youzhny was on fire that day (Murray barely beat him in the next match).

However I think that if Ancic has some real problems, he will either withdraw or retire. Hopefully he won't play two full sets with an injury.
 

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WTD 0-0

Querry 5 units @ 2
Ancic 5 units @ 1.8 (took before the above remark)
Kiefer 4 units @ 1.6
Lopez 1 unit @ 1.8 (drifted to 1.9 later!!!)

Total staked 15
 

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDw_3bl4r8U :eek:

Paris Masters

Can anyone explain to me what the surface is this year?, its changed dramatically from last year?:confused:

Stan over Kiefer 11/8 (Corals) - Always tough to beat kiefer, this match will not be won easily, i have backed stan many times this year as a dog and he has delivered for me, i am abit worried because he has played alot recently. All the signs point to a kiefer win, he keeps the rallies short with his net play and relatively big/consisten serve, Stan hates this kind of play, he wants to be involved in long rallies and produce winners, this is why i think its a risky bet today. But im gonna take the risk that kiefer has an off day in the serve department, then stan can dominate.

Baghdatis over Ferrero 5/6 (Stan James)- Another tough match, i watched baggy against jarkko last week and he was pretty decent up untill the double fault in the tie-breaker *4-5, after that he crumbled, if he can get off to a good start and win the 1st set he can dictate, a few years ago you would of felt confident even if baggy was a set and a break down but nowadays he is losing what he was remembered for back in the aussie open, fighting spirit, so nowadays he needs to have a good start to win matches, strange. But anyway, baggy can match ferrero pretty much in all departments, juan might have the edge in the mental but thats pretty much it, will be close but baggy is hard to beat indoors so im gonna go with him.


GOOD LUCK:wavey:
 
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