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Will Novak Djokovic have another peak year? If so, which year will be the soonest?

  • Yes, in 2023 when he turns 36

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  • Yes, in 2024 when he turns 37

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  • Yes, in 2025 when he turns 38

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  • Yes, in 2026 when he turns 39

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  • Yes, in 2027 or later, after he turns 40

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  • No, he will have no more peak years, because he is disgruntled with ITF, ATP, bigwigs, and Fedal.

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  • No, he will have no more peak years because of family matters.

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  • No, he will have no more peak years because his game has degraded too much to be competitive enough.

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  • I don't know, and/or I don't care. I'm an MTF Expert, not a bloody crystal ball.

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Discussion Starter #1


Novak's peak years seem to come in cycles. 2011, 2015-16, 2018-19. But it implies that he can also have lean years.

He will be completing his 34th year of life in May, 2021. On the plus side, he still has little top quality opposition younger than he is. Since 2011, he has enjoyed being the youngest multi-major winner playing.

Is this likely to change soon, and stop this all-time great in his tracks? Or will he still be able to win 2-3 majors in a year as he ages into his mid-30's? His top rival on clay is a year older, and on other surfaces, is almost half way into his 40th year. So he can continue dominating as he wishes.

Is health a concern (physical or mental)? Do you see a gradual or increased degradation of his champion's abilities?

Could his political ambitions and off court activities get in the way?

MTF Experts, weigh in.

Respectfully,
masterclass
 

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There is really no reason he cannot have another good year in 2021. He takes really good care of himself and is younger than Nadal and especially Federer.

He is healthy, more consistent than the younger players, better than Nadal on all surfaces other than clay, and has the advantage of starting the year with more than 3,000 points that are retained from 2020. The younger players do not seem to be consistent on Best of 5 for 7 matches, and his incredible run on tiebreaks makes him the one to beat in all but the FO.

I believe he will win two slams next year (most likely AO and Wim), but he has a shot at 3. Federer will be competitive by the time of Wimbledon, but Federer has not beaten Djokovic for a while at Wimbledon with 2 good legs, so it seems harder for him to be beat Djokovic in 2021. I have trouble seeing Federer get past the quarterfinals of AO though I'd love to see it.

I predict that Djokovic will go through the entire year of 2021 as the No. 1 player in the world and have a total of 353 weeks as No. 1 at the end of the year. This will also give him the 7th year end No. 1. While the younger players and Nadal will win some of the Masters 1000, Djokovic will take 2-3 of them to help him keep the No. 1 ranking.

I don't think that people consider enough how many matches Djokovic played in the constricted year and I think he wore down some at the end, though rumors of his death, as usual, are probably greatly exaggerated. I do think that in a best of 3 that Djokovic, Nadal, Thiem, and Medvedev are very close. But best of 5 is a clear advantage for him except for at the FO against Nadal.

Long answer to say that he is motivated to do very well in 2021 and I expect him to do that.
 

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As long as the corrupt liberal anonymous suits at the ATP don't sabatoge him and unjustly and outrageously default him from any more grand slams
 

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Djokovic can peak all he wants, he may win 3 slams in a year but he won't win RG over healthy Rafa. And he objectively has minimum chances to overtake Rafa in the slam race, because just 1 more great year won't be enough for that, and Novak is not getting any younger.
 

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A few years ago that would be possible. When Djokovic had only Nadal and Federer to stop him.
Today while Federer has been out for almost the whole year. There are a handfull of players who can stop him.

No no not Sonego. That was careless of Djokovic. But it´s in the past.

Thiem, Medvedev, Tsisipas and Zverev any of them can do that to Djokovic. And not only to Djokovic but to Nadal and to Federer when he comes back.

The only way Djokovic wins more then 1 slam is if he manages well his scheduel. He can´t play every tournament he enters to win.
He needs to have some goals and some targets and focus only on them. Nothing else.

For years we have been waiting for the next generation.
I feel (despite Thiem beeing older ) with these young guys and the Big 3 age a shift will start.
Maybe it starts in AO21.
I think Novak has atleast 3 more slams in him.
 

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Agreed that any one of about 5-7 people could stop the Big 3 on any given day. However, they do not seem to have the consistency and the extra push required for the slams. None of them are particularly good on grass, Djokovic seems to own the AO, and obviously Nadal owns the FO.

While the 2020 USO final was entertaining and I like Thiem, both players tried to give the match away. Does anyone doubt that if any of the Big 3 were playing against Thiem or Zverev and they played at the level they did in the finals that all of the Big 3 would have won?

The best prediction of the future is what has happened in the past. And until that changes, it seems to me to best put your money on the Big 3.
 

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Depends what you exactly mean by "peak". With the Novak caliber of player peak only starts with minimum 2 slams per year. Anything less and other accomplishments are really secondary to his resume now.

I think it's possible he wins two slams in 2021 (I'd give it a 25% chance) but not very likely. As of 2022 I'd think it'll be highly unlikely. As for 3 slams per year I don't think it'll happen again. The ageing process has already started and it doesn't get any easier to bag slams when you are well into your 30-ties.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
Depends what you exactly mean by "peak". With the Novak caliber of player peak only starts with minimum 2 slams per year. Anything less and other accomplishments are really secondary to his resume now.

I think it's possible he wins two slams in 2021 (I'd give it a 25% chance) but not very likely. As of 2022 I'd think it'll be highly unlikely. As for 3 slams per year I don't think it'll happen again. The ageing process has already started and it doesn't get any easier to bag slams when you are well into your 30-ties.
Yes, at least 2, as I implied as much in my original post - "Or will he still be able to win 2-3 majors in a year as he ages into his mid-30's "

Of course there are peaks and there are higher peaks. AO + W would be a good peak, RG + USO would be the best 2 major peak for him, but probably has the least chance. AO + RG would likely be the most exciting drama, and of course 3 of any of the majors during one season would be a great peak, and 4 in 1 season, i.e. The Grand Slam, being the Everest of peaks.

One can see that a player doesn't need a great peak to be YE#1, especially in a shortened season like 2020.

Respectfully,
masterclass
 
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He’s probably got as good a chance @ USO as AO since they’ve switched to Laykold & probably Fed his toughest opponent at WB, so min. 2 expected after 2020 fiasco. Btw, nice captured photo of crown back in the day before he really was ATG.
 

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Discussion Starter #13 (Edited)
Djokovic's biggest threat will be 👇👇👇





As with most, if not all players, if No1e is not in great form for whatever reason, he can be beaten by anyone, even at AO (e.g. Istomin, Chung).
If Novak is in great form, he is difficult to beat anywhere, but can be beaten by another top performance.

The youngsters are gradually getting more confidence, the aura of the Tennis Trinity is wearing off. So past performance doesn't mean as much anymore in determining the probable title victors.
No one should look past the first match.

Respectfully,
masterclass
 
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