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Is the betting market correct in the belief that Djokovic will tank Rome?

  • Yes, I fully expect a Djokovic tank in Rome.

    Votes: 1 4.3%
  • No, the market is wrong, Djokovic will give 120 % in "città eterna".

    Votes: 4 17.4%
  • Maybe Djokovic is content with his preparation for RG and will do a "semi-tank", who knows?

    Votes: 18 78.3%

  • Total voters
    23
  • Poll closed .
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Discussion Starter #1
Looking at the odds in Rome, Nadal is the number one favorite in Rome well ahead of Djokovic. While Nadal is the number one favorite also for RG, the margin to Djokovic is smaller. Obviously, this means that the betting market has more faith in Djokovic at RG than in Rome, but what is the reason? Could it be the draw in Rome? Most likely not. The third time favorite is Thiem. However, the Austrian is in Nadal's quarter in Rome, which should be an advantage for Djokovic. Moreover, with Tsitsipas and Federer also in Nadal's half, it is clear that Djokovic has a more favorable draw. Could it be the venue itself? Not likely. Comparing the top two favorites, it is obvious that Djokovic has a better record in Rome (relatively speaking) and Nadal a better record at RG. For the discussion, it does not really matter whether it is the five- versus three-set format or the playing conditions that make the difference. Whatever way we look at it, Nadal is more difficult to beat at RG. Still, this year the betting market thinks differently.

My conclusion is that the betting market believes - at least to some degree - in a Djokovic tank in Rome. Could that be correct? Djokovic - like most other top athletes - is a highly competitive person. Would he really do a deliberate tank? Perhaps not. In all fairness, it is possible that the market does not believe in a literal tank. If a reasonable fraction of betters expects a less than 100 % effort from Djokovic, a "semi-tank" if you like, the effect on the market odds will still be visible. What do you think? Could it be that betters have outsmarted themselves this time?
 

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Djokovic certainly still needs clay matches to get into at least 2014 or 2016 RG form. He wants to go as deep as possible at Rome, since after that he'll still have 1 week to rest, even if he wins let's say in an exhausting final.
Though on the flip side, do not expect him to overexert himself to win it all in Rome and then fall short at RG. He experienced it thrice: in 2011 and 2014/15 and it was a painful way to learn that he can't go all the way all the time. Since meanwhile he is not that young anymore, this will cause him further to be cautious and only advance if all circumstances are set for a win. Which is not measured by the opponents' strength, but rather their current form.

All in all, the betting market is probably all aware of these factors, that's why they have still Nadal as a clear favorite in Rome.
 

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A semi-tank seems like a safe bet, which may even be as high as a final appearance as in 2016. He has enough Rome titles now.
 

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Discussion Starter #5
Who cares about betting? Not sure what your point is.
Well, as you may have noted from my previous posts, I am interested in the betting market (not so much betting itself) since, more often than not, the betting market behaves like a really smart person.

I was thinking a bit like you "Djokovic loves Rome, etc." and thought that Djokovic should be the favorite for this weeks event, particularly given the favorable draw. When I checked up the odds, though, I discovered that the market thought differently. I found the reason for this worth discussing, but everyone is free not to participate. :wink2:
 

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Its easier to take out a player like Djokovic when playing BO3. Even if Djokovic has very fine record in Rome, hes been in trouble countless times and close to going out early. For example he won there in 2014 and 2015, but he played 7 (SEVEN) 3-setters in a row.
 

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Djokovic has done well in Rome historically, it was the first clay masters he won. His draw doesn't look bad. Even though there are some dangerous players in his path, which have beaten him on clay before.

I think if possible, he will try to get to the final to play Rafa once before RG. But he won't kill himself trying to make it there. Also it's not sure that Rafa makes the final of course, given his draw and current form.
 

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I am interested in the betting market (not so much betting itself) since, more often than not, the betting market behaves like a really smart person.
I have to argue this point. 98% of bettors lose all the money they put in, so they are far from smart. The betting market is typically driven by names, which is why Nadal is such a favourite (as he is in every single clay court tournament he plays).

Anybody that will make a significant bet on the tournament winner will be doing so on Nadal (or perhaps Nole after Madrid), based on the name alone. I don't know one 'professional' or 'successful' bettor that would ever take Nadal to win a tourney at those odds for a big bet (or anybody that is a favourite for any tourney for that matter)

Also,with tournament bets, you have to consider that it is assumed that Nadal will beat everybody until the semis easily. Then, he will play Thiem as a 1.2 favourite and then at worst, play Djokovic as a 1.5 favourite. So, they need to make the odds suitable for that.
 

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Maybe it means he's more likely to suffer an exit in Bo3 by someone rather than in Bo5 match, and he'll most likely take RG much more seriously. For instance - the way he lost in Doha in comparison how he played at AO especially in later stages.
 

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No surprise if he does tank, he obviously didn't give 100% in IW and Miami. But he's done enough to be favorite at RG, although his decline from peak level/endurance is obvious.
 

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Also,with tournament bets, you have to consider that it is assumed that Nadal will beat everybody until the semis easily. Then, he will play Thiem as a 1.2 favourite and then at worst, play Djokovic as a 1.5 favourite. So, they need to make the odds suitable for that.
Where are you getting these implied prices from? I seriously doubt Nadal would be 1,20 in a final vs Thiem right now, same 1,50 vs ND.
 

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Where are you getting this implied prices from? I seriously doubt Nadal would be 1,20 in a final vs Thiem right now, same 1,50 vs ND.
Have to agree here. Nadal was 1,45 against Djokovic in Madrid 2017 when Nadal hadnt lost a single match on clay that year and played very well so far, while Djokovic was far from good. Add that AO destruction (yes, on hard, but still it plays a role) its very hard to see Nadal being just 1,5 unless he plays juggernaut tennis from the start.

edit: He was short as hell next year in Rome though but thats the only time hes been that short in ages and can be explained by their forms. But Nadal was bigger than 1,6 in their 2013 & 2014 RG matches, 3,50 in their 2015 RG match.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
I have to argue this point. 98% of bettors lose all the money they put in, so they are far from smart.
I'm not saying that individual persons making bets are smarter than others - I would guess they are fairly representative of the population as a whole, maybe with the exception of being more willing to take risks.

However, your argument (that individual betters typically lose money) actually supports my view that the market (that is the average opinion of betters, weighted in proportion to their wallets) behaves like a smart person.

If the market was the least bit stupid, anyone with tennis knowledge could make a fortune with a tiny effort. The margins on the Betfair market are virtually zero (it is betters against betters, and you pay a fee to participate). Therefore, whenever odds are not based on all the available information, it is easy for a knowledgeable person to exploit such a weakness.

I'm not saying that the market is perfect (it is not) but it is certainly smarter than most of us. I think it is possible to make a living on live-match betting (suggesting that some individuals are smarter than the live-match market), but I seriously doubt it is possible to make a living on any form of pre-match betting. Thus betting on tournament winners, either before or after the draw is out, is a lost cause for the most part.

In this sense, the odds produced by the market are smarter than any of the individuals helping to produce them.
 

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edit: He was short as hell next year in Rome though but thats the only time hes been that short in ages and can be explained by their forms. But Nadal was bigger than 1,6 in their 2013 & 2014 RG matches, 3,50 in their 2015 RG match.
Those were just the correct odds going into those matches.
Not so hard to predict what will happen, should they meet in Rome. Djokovic seems to have regained his form and is brimming with confidence, while Nadal regained his clay form only partly and is lacking in the confidence dept.
 

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The nearest precedent for Rafa's clay form and injury levels at this time of year is the 2015 season, which was a very poor one by his standards. Now he's four years older, and in interviews he's been talking bitterly about the unfairness of his injuries. On top of that, he's yet to play Djokovic, an encounter he must be dreading after the AO final, because Rafa knows very well he's nowhere near his best.

Based purely on his pedigree and past achievements, Rafa is always in with a shout, but at this stage it's madness to think he's the favourite for Rome or RG.

The double blow of the AO final and the IW injury have scuppered his clay season. I can't see him recovering from here.
 

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The nearest precedent for Rafa's clay form and injury levels at this time of year is the 2015 season, which was a very poor one by his standards. Now he's four years older, and in interviews he's been talking bitterly about the unfairness of his injuries. On top of that, he's yet to play Djokovic, an encounter he must be dreading after the AO final, because Rafa knows very well he's nowhere near his best.

Based purely on his pedigree and past achievements, Rafa is always in with a shout, but at this stage it's madness to think he's the favourite for Rome or RG.

The double blow of the AO final and the IW injury have scuppered his clay season. I can't see him recovering from here.
A good analyzing post from a Fed fan, though not entirely related to the main topic in this thread.

He should tank Roland Garros. That would be the best decision for him. Otherwise he'll lose not only RG but also WM and USO.
A meaningless post from a hater and Fedtard.
 

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Djokovic tanking Rome after winning Madrid never even occurred to me, so I have no idea what the "betting market" is on about, if it even is on something in the first place.
 
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