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Next Gen players are posting good result now and it seems only a matter of time till the start winning big tournament consistently. Are they better players than Gen Useless or is it just that the Big 3 have declined now?
 

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Big 2 split the slams this year. Clearly they haven't declined enough for others to take advantage.
 

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Over the entire generation? Not yet. Thiem is still number one, though the gap has quite considerably closed. Thiem has really left the gate open by waiting so long to make his move.

It is possible he could get skipped, and it has happened for a five year period in the past. Manuel Orantes was the best performer of his generation, and he only reached world number 2 and then fell behind Connors.

Interestingly for Thiem, Thiem is still younger than Orantes was when he won his one and only slam. Orantes was close to 27 by them. Connors had already reached world number one, so we had clear evidence that the world had passed him by.
 

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There's a couple of scenarios that I can see. One, that they break through at this year's Australian open and win their first slam and win the French as well. This would have one of them take over in May. Could be Thiem. Thiem could stay on top for awhile, or could also be faced with some of the others, Zverev etc pushing him.

I don't think they are going to be held back for long, but we shall see.
 

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It is not a case of the young guys stepping up. In fact have they stepped up yet at all? All 4 slams are with the members of that great trio.

But yes the big guys are slowing down.
 

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Tsitsipas and Medvedev are clearly better, Zverev and the rest are not.
Also Big 3 are losing very close matches even to those guys, while couple years ago they could still win those.
 

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Several guys born in 1997 and later are more or less on the development curve of past number 1's. None of the GenU guys, except for Thiem, Raonic and Nishikori ever came close, the last 2 fell behind very early and Thiem is barely on the timeline of some late bloomers like Muster or Rafter. If we take a look at some stats of reaching top-20, top-10, top-5, then we find out that almost all number 1's reached top-20 and even top-10 before turning 21, top-5 before or soon after turning 22. Medvedev sprinted ahead of Thiem's curve, but he is still a very late bloomer compared to future HoFers.

Zverev, Tsitsipas, Shapovalov, De Minaur, FAA developed as prospects to become future number 1's, Rublev showed some promise and still is not too far behind. Nobody between Del Potro and, on very early stages, Coric, except for maybe Nishikori before his first injuries at 19, developed as a future number 1 for more then a few weeks.

GenU players were certainly less talented than the best players born in 1997-2001. Most of them are also less talented than Medvedev or even Khachanov and Chung, or maybe even Coric. One may argue that Kyrgios is also more talented then GenU players (I am not sure about this).

I actually think that Berrettini is more or less in the same league, in terms of talent, as Dimitrov and Raonic. I am also fairly certain most here will agree that he is miles behind, say, Tsitsipas.
 
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