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Can Federer beat a healthy Rafa at the AO or UO in 2015?

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Everytime I read a topic about a possible future Fedal slam match-up, people are not even giving the slightest chance to Federer. If the match is at RG (or any clay tourney) I will agree with them, but at HC slams? Is this reality now or are people overexaggerating? I mea it's not Sharapova chancelessness level against Serena is it??

Some facts that we know:
1. H2H: 23-10 (13-2 on clay and 9-6 on HC and 1-2 on grass)
2. Federer has a styllistical disadvantage against Nadal, which is magnified on clay
3. Rafa has won the last 5 matches against Roger (4 on HC, 1 on clay)
4. 3-0 for Rafa in slams played on HC

Federer is back to playing on a very high level again and eventho his chances against Rafa look bad, I still believe he can beat him at the AO & the UO when he plays his best tennis. Do you?
 

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Absolutely 100%

the 2 things that always stick in my mind are 1)nearly half the meetings were on clay where Nadal is near on unbeatable has I think now a 13-2 record v Fed and 2)People forget Federer has 10 wins over him which still, by far, makes him Rafa's second most losing opponent (behind Djokovic)


the big credit points in Rafa's favour are those 2 GS finals he won in 5 sets over Fed at Wimbledon and Australian Open, 2 matches that have hurt Roger badly in this rivalry and Roger has never been unbeatable there like Nadal appears on clay.
 

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Yes, it is. Their match were almost always competitive until IW 2012. Even if Nadal won most of them, it was pretty close in general. Since last year only it has become a NID match-up, but I must say their Cincinnati match was very competitive and pleasant to watch.
 

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For me and I'm not a fan of either, but don't dislike either, the match has had a NID feeling for years. Fed might snatch the odd win here and there, but in slams it has not been a rivalry for years. It has never been a rivalry on clay either.
 

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The competition era holds no merit because :

1)After Nadal won his first slam, Federer and Nadal have won 13 slams each.

2)Federer has beaten more Grand Slam Champions of a slam at that slam en route to his wins. The count is 14-9 in Federer's favour. Moreover Federer has had to go through 2 GS Champions of a slam twice; Nadal has never had to go through more than 1 GS Champion of a slam(if that).

3)Since Nadal won his first slam in 2005, Federer has finished above Nadal in the YE rankings 6/10 times (2014 included). You can't cite injuries or pre-prime Nadal as an excuse here because a)We are choosing the year in which Nadal won his first slam and b)it also includes geriatric Federer. Besides 2 of the years Nadal finished on top of Fed were also Federer's worst years(depite the slam win in 2008) - the mono affected 2008 and his back injury affected 2013. He barely had any top 10 wins at all.

4)At the tournament where the competition is at its toughest and where exclusively the top players play, Nadal has never managed to win. Federer has done it a record 6 times.

5)A much more balanced slam count. Federer is miles ahead at 3 of the 4 slams (Nadal is light years ahead in 1 obviously). Showed that he could win the AO on both plexi and rebound ace.

We could get into all sorts of nit piking and factor in that Nadal won all but one of his non clay slams in the 2008-2010 period when Murray and Djokovic still hadn't peaked (and 2008 being Federer's mono period) etc etc. In the end it is what it is. Federer has virtually all the records and for now has a much better case for being the greatest of all time.

Ah, did I miss something? Yes, the H2H. Now, I don't think H2H is totally irrelevant. It is not - but there are a number of other criteria higher on the pecking order (in my mind, even consecutive SF, QF streaks hold more value). Also H2H is influenced by a number of factors viz :

a) Age - yes, Nadal is younger than Federer and prime Fed had a young Nadal who he *should* have beaten but 2004 Miami was unfortunate for Federer when he was sick and it all went downhill from there. There's no way he should have lost matches like 2006 Dubai. However, I think a younger player is always at an advantage (when the difference is 5 or more than 5 years especially) with regards to H2H. It is the reason why Federer went 9-3 against Agassi/Sampras combined.

b)Match up problem - this is something almost unique to sports like tennis. Match up makes a big difference. Have a look at Simon's Murray's and Berdych's records versus each other and you'll see what I am talking about.

c)Favoured surfaces - On Nadal's better surfaces versus Federer (slow hards and clay), they have met 25 times. The record there is 21-4 in favour of Nadal! On Federer's better surfaces/conditions vs Nadal(grass and indoors), they have met only 8 times and the record is 6-2 in favour of Federer. Do we penalise Federer for making it to more clay finals and reward Nadal for not making it to Fed in the latter part of the season. If Federer makes it past Djokovic in Zeus mode(being the only man to beat him in that form) to reach Nadal and loses there that is a slight on him, but if Nadal fails to get past Kygrios or Coric to meet Federer on his preferred surface, he gets a pass? Sorry, doesn't compute. I'd say the only two years where Nadal's and Federer's primes overlapped were 2009-2010 (I wouldn't begrudge a Nadal fan saying 2008 but he was so clearly struggling that year especially in the first half that I am not sure if I'd take that at face value in a serious H2H discusson). They met only once in that period in a slam - 2009 AO. That was a freaking close match. Consider this up until 2013, Nadal was leading on clay and Federer was leading on grass and hards!

Even accounting for all that I would definitely say Federer should have done more vs Nadal. It should have been at most 19-14 or thereabouts for Nadal even considering all the mitigating factors. It is definitely a blot on Federer's resume but not as much as is made out. The guy beat Sampras on Wimbledon as a teenager, Aggasi on hards in his early 20s(yes öld Agassi alongside who Federer won a slam in 2003 but if that doesn't count let's discount all of Federer's losses post 30), has bagelled Nadal on clay, hard and grass, bagelled Djokovic as a 31 year old on hards and at 33 is still the number 2 player in the world. The guy has game. Instead of mudslinging, let's appreciate the man. He could be gone in a year never to return.
In short - yes, it is rather exaggerated. Federer's biggest issue (or among his biggest issues anyway) has been closing out tight 5 setters. W08, A09 have basically fueled this H2H debate. If Federer hadn't botched up those 2 there'd be no debate regarding H2H. Even vs Djokovic 3/6 slam matches he has lost to him have been tight 5 setters - USO 2010/11 and Wimbledon 2014 (difference between a 6-6 H2H and a 9-3 H2H!)

All that said, if Roger were to meet Nadal now then Nadal has about 95% chance of winning...simple reason being Nadal pretty much only plays when he is fully fit and in form(and mostly on his preferred surfaces). Federer's last chance of realistically beating Nadal in a slam was at AO 2012.
 
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For me and I'm not a fan of either, but don't dislike either, the match has had a NID feeling for years. Fed might snatch the odd win here and there, but in slams it has not been a rivalry for years. It has never been a rivalry on clay either.
This. I'm a Federer fan but the numbers speak for themselves.

Even if Roger is hot and Dull playing average there is always that feeling that if they meet Dull will bring Roger's level down and win.

Roger's game is more intricate, everything has to be working flawlessly for him to have a chance against Dull whilst Dull only has to moonball to the BH 100% of the time to win.

There is also a psychological factor. How many times has Roger lead matches or sets only to lose them in close fashion. It happens all the time.
 

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The mental block is far too strong. Even comparable to the Sharapova/Williams dilemma.
 

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This. I'm a Federer fan but the numbers speak for themselves.

Even if Roger is hot and Dull playing average there is always that feeling that if they meet Dull will bring Roger's level down and win.

Roger's game is more intricate, everything has to be working flawlessly for him to have a chance against Dull whilst Dull only has to moonball to the BH 100% of the time to win.

There is also a psychological factor. How many times has Roger lead matches or sets only to lose them in close fashion. It happens all the time.
French Open 2011 Final comes to mind as Federer's biggest chokes against Nadal. IMO he was playing his best clay tennis in that tournament and was taking it to Nadal in rallies in that match. He was up 5-2 in the first set and lost 5 successive games to lose the set 7-5. He was down a break and still forced a tiebreak in the second set. After winning the third set he was riding momentum and had Nadal 0-40 in the first game of the fourth and could have broken him and riden the momentum train. But of course Federer choked and that shit angered me to no end. He has what it takes to beat Nadal, but in the important points he tries something stupid like using a dropshot or net rushing after a weak approach shot. :mad:
 

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When Fed is in awful form, dull comes to bite. When dull is in awful form, he escapes. :shrug:
 

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For me and I'm not a fan of either, but don't dislike either, the match has had a NID feeling for years. Fed might snatch the odd win here and there, but in slams it has not been a rivalry for years. It has never been a rivalry on clay either.
Absolutely agree, I am a Fed fan.

I think Rafa'a game is just perfect to exploit Fed's weaknesses, he brings out the worst of him, therefore every match they played since 2008 feels just NID (except grass or indoors maybe).
 

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Yes, it is
If you take away the h2h on Clay where Nadal is almost unbeatable. It is still a pretty much even Head to Head despite Rafa having the chance to meet Roger 4 times in 2013 where he was awful.
Not an excuse to why the H2h is in Rafa's favor but it might have looked less bad for Roger if they had meet a few more times in 2nd part of the season from 2005 to 2012.
 

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Thing is if they meet on grass again it is likely to be in the SF of Wimbledon and if Nadal is back in the SF of Wim he will be in some decent form and it will be 5 sets which will favour him. So although it might be close and interesting I'd still give the edge to Nadal then.

It is very much like Serena/Maria in that they are only going to meet deep in tournaments and by then Serena should be in form and win. Getting Serena early in a tournament is key.

You also cant just dismiss the clay H2H too, like it doesn't count because how good Nadal is on clay lol.
 

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I don't think so. In terms of a fight, Federer does not give up easily but he does lose. IF the H2H was something like 20-13, you could say it's close and the reason for the skewed results is clay. However, having watched a number of matches, Federer has failed to take his chances.
 

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After RG 2008 it has become almost purely a mental thing. Before that, they were quite evenly matched and matches on clay also got pretty close. At the start of 2008 the H2H was 6-8. First, Nadal beat Federer twice in MC and Hamburg by close margins. I remember there being quite some anticipation for the RG final, but Nadal just obliterated Federer. After that, Nadal ran away with the head-to-head and Federer has never beaten him in a slam again.
 

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Good question. Looking at their H2H the thing that always shocked me most was how much Nadal leads on outdoor HC. Federer does have the advantage indoors but on outdoor HC Nadal leads 8-2. That is a pretty massive lead considering Federer is supposed to be the better HC player, and Nadal (particularly in his younger years) was not nearly as good on hard as grass and clay.

The fact that Nadal has such a big lead on a surface that should have been more suited to Federer is enough to demonstrate that the "ownage" is indeed justified.

And if they meet anywhere in 2015 I would be very surprised to see Federer win.
 

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After RG 2008 it has become almost purely a mental thing. Before that, they were quite evenly matched and matches on clay also got pretty close. At the start of 2008 the H2H was 6-8. First, Nadal beat Federer twice in MC and Hamburg by close margins. I remember there being quite some anticipation for the RG final, but Nadal just obliterated Federer. After that, Nadal ran away with the head-to-head and Federer has never beaten him in a slam again.
It sucks because there are times that show that Federer can take it to Nadal. His one-handed backhand is a liability against Nadal, but after so many years playing against him he should have strengthened it or developed a new strategy. It was so awesome to see Wawrinka demolish Nadal with his one-handed backhand alone in the AO Final. Especially in the first set when Nadal wasn't injured in the slightest or how people may believe.
 
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French Open 2011 Final comes to mind as Federer's biggest chokes against Nadal. IMO he was playing his best clay tennis in that tournament and was taking it to Nadal in rallies in that match. He was up 5-2 in the first set and lost 5 successive games to lose the set 7-5. He was down a break and still forced a tiebreak in the second set. After winning the third set he was riding momentum and had Nadal 0-40 in the first game of the fourth and could have broken him and riden the momentum train. But of course Federer choked and that shit angered me to no end. He has what it takes to beat Nadal, but in the important points he tries something stupid like using a dropshot or net rushing after a weak approach shot. :mad:
He chokes so much against Nadal, it is sad to watch. But you have to remember Nadal did his usual cheating when Roger was about to serve for the first set that year. Sadly the gamesmanship works.

Roger knows it is on his racket but has a huge mental block against Nadal. Sadly the matchup has become very NID in recent years and not just on clay. Roger was so bad in 2013 that he even got beaten by Nadal on indoor HC. Inexcusable.
 
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