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He has points from 1 slam final, 1 slam SF, 2 M1000 win and 1 M1000 final from last year's second half of his season. But his game this year so far has regressed. His form prior to the grass season does not look that great. His forehand seemed gone for good. I could see Murray overtaking his #2 with Murray's resurgence. If he even exits Wimbledon early this year due to an upset I wouldn't be surprised either.

Note: This is not a jinx/anti jinx thread.
 

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I'd be shocked if Murray didn't end up taking the #2 spot back, but I'll back Fed to achieve decent results in the second half of the year and to stay in the top 4.

Next season is where I see the free fall happening...
 

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yes.there is no way he defends everything, i dont even think he will win a masters.
BTW, he didnt have a forehand last year either. the only match where his forehand re-appeared was the SF vs djokovic in Shanghai i think.
 

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He'll lose number 2 for certain, probably before the US Open. I'd guess he stays at four behind Novak, Andy and Stan.
 

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Murray will probably get the #2, but Federer should be staying in the top 4 at least for this year, unless he really starts having bad results like 2013.
 

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Yes, I think it is a distinct possibility. I'd be surprised if he doesn't finish at least in the top 5-6 though. We'd most probably have to have two different slam winners (excluding Federer) for the remaining two slams for example.

He is on course to finish behind Djokovic and Murray for sure, likely Wawrinka too. Even if Nadal has a resurgence in the second half of the season (historically this has not tended to happen, except 2011 and 2013), will two other players out of Nishikori, Berdych, Ferrer, Raonic etc realistically finish above Roger over the course of the whole season?
 

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I don't see the regression you are talking about. He is only 285 points short of his position in the race this time last year, and historically the second half of the year (grass + summer hard courts + indoors) brings much better results for him.
 

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Grass month will give a bit more clear form for the remainder of the season.
 

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I'd be shocked if Murray didn't end up taking the #2 spot back, but I'll back Fed to achieve decent results in the second half of the year and to stay in the top 4.

Next season is where I see the free fall happening...
Looking at his results since 2010 there is noticeable trend of better and then less good year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer_career_statistics

Better were even years 2010,2012,2014, so 2016 should be better than 2015 or at least as good as 2015.

Rigged slam draws should help him staying in the top 5-6 by making QF regularly and making at least one SF even if out of form.
 

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It is possible but he still has 2 slams he can potentially earn major points at (and he will be number 2 seed for at least one, probably both of them), and his favourite M1000 and 500s (Halle, Cincinnati, Basel) still to come. Not to mention that unless he falls from the top 8 he will get the chance to get points at WTF.

Who is going to overtake him? Djokovic will be ahead (unless Federer outperforms him by 5000 points), Murray and Wawrinka are on course to possibly end ahead of him, but that still puts him at number 4. Berdych and Ferrer are the other players slightly ahead of him in the race, and it is hard to see them getting big enough results to remain ahead of someone who will likely enjoy the number 2 seeding for several big tournaments. Only if Nadal regroups and has an amazing latter part of the year or Nishikori manages to win something big can I see anyone overtaking him if he does reasonably well.
 

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I highly doubt it. Federer's performances this year are more or less similar to last year. The only difference is just that pathetic AO result, but other than that, it's been ok, I'm not really worried for now. He doesn't tend to that well in the first half of the season anyway, the 2nd half should be much better, like last year. If he doesn't do well in the 2nd half of the season, the yeah, this could be a great possibility, but I think he'll do decent and win a masters or 2. Murray might overtake(probably) him or even Wawrinka if he achieves some magnificent result, but you know he's inconsistent outside slams, so he'll probably not. Federer should remain in the top 4 at least.
 

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Who is going to overtake him? Djokovic will be ahead (unless Federer outperforms him by 5000 points), Murray and Wawrinka are on course to possibly end ahead of him, but that still puts him at number 4. Berdych and Ferrer are the other players slightly ahead of him in the race, and it is hard to see them getting big enough results to remain ahead of someone who will likely enjoy the number 2 seeding for several big tournaments. Only if Nadal regroups and has an amazing latter part of the year or Nishikori manages to win something big can I see anyone overtaking him if he does reasonably well.
Problem for Nishikori as for Wawrinka is that winning on their best surface i.e. HC at AO and USO always requires beating Djokovic and another strong (Wawrinka/Murray) HC player only to get to the finals, whereas Federer will be in the other easier half at HC slams, and together with Nishikori at Wimbledon where Nishikori is not nearly as good as at HC slams.

So Nishikori should start winning masters and making the finals regularly if he is to overtake Federer this or the next season.
 

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Absolutely. The fact he is #2 at almost 34 without his once god-like forehand and with decreased movement is a bad sign for this era's level of competition.
 

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Yes, I think it is a distinct possibility. I'd be surprised if he doesn't finish at least in the top 5-6 though. We'd most probably have to have two different slam winners (excluding Federer) for the remaining two slams for example.

He is on course to finish behind Djokovic and Murray for sure, likely Wawrinka too. Even if Nadal has a resurgence in the second half of the season (historically this has not tended to happen, except 2011 and 2013), will two other players out of Nishikori, Berdych, Ferrer, Raonic etc realistically finish above Roger over the course of the whole season?
Nadal may have a resurgance in contrast to his awful awful start to the year (by his standards) but in 2011 he had an amazing year and was simply beaten by Djokovic in the biggest moments and probably got worse as the season went on. In 2013 he was out for the first few months and again after the USO slumped in form compared to Djokovic, so he has never really got better in the second half. Might do this time though, not that its hard.
 

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Fed's form is still great and he is indeed still the 2nd best player of the year. I doubt he's in any real danger of falling out of the top 4.
 

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I actually think he might just get out of that Top 4, ending the year as #5 behind Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka and Nishikori. Nishikori doesn't have much points really to defend on the US Masters (he was injured at the time) although I agree the USO Final points defense is going to be interesting. I don't think Fed would actually defend many of the Masters but I could see him still competing deep on them. I feel actually (as opposed to my pessimism about Stan) that this second Slam win would make Stan feel more secure mentally seeing that he could beat the top players "fair and square" and I think he has now accepted that he's inconsistent but doesn't mean he couldn't fight his way through a match to try and win it (which has been his problem from what I see).

EDIT: Actually, maybe Berdych could #4 based on the consistency he had in the tournaments lately even without a big result.
 

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I actually think he might just get out of that Top 4, ending the year as #5 behind Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka and Nishikori. Nishikori doesn't have much points really to defend on the US Masters (he was injured at the time) although I agree the USO Final points defense is going to be interesting. I don't think Fed would actually defend many of the Masters but I could see him still competing deep on them. I feel actually (as opposed to my pessimism about Stan) that this second Slam win would make Stan feel more secure mentally seeing that he could beat the top players "fair and square" and I think he has now accepted that he's inconsistent but doesn't mean he couldn't fight his way through a match to try and win it (which has been his problem from what I see).

EDIT: Actually, maybe Berdych could #4 based on the consistency he had in the tournaments lately even without a big result.

Actually, I don't want wawrinka to be consistency. Winning masters is not equal to winning slams. It's also not an indicator of future performances. Worst, Serena Williams thought the tennis world that if you want longevity on the tour, AVOID MASTERS like the pest and focus on slams. Clearly Nadal did not get the memo and we see the results.
I rather wawrinka slums it out at the masters and be reinvigorated for the slams because slams are what matter!
 

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There's a possibility, of course. I see him finishing somewhere in the 3-5 region. Would of course like to see him stay in the top-3 to take Connors' record for most weeks in the top-3.
 

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Fed's form is still great and he is indeed still the 2nd best player of the year. I doubt he's in any real danger of falling out of the top 4.
he's not even the 3rd best player so far this year :facepalm:
 
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