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http://www.ft.com/ig/features/baseline/federer-nadal-different-paths-greatness/

So called "Simpson's Paradox"

Nadal has won 13.3% of matches where he won less points than opponent. Thats insane, more than double average and other top 4. Average is ~5-6%

Federer 4.1%, Nole 6.3%, 6.7%

Nadal has also lost only 1.6% where he won more points than opponent. In comparison, Federer 3.4%, Nole 1.9%, Murray 3.1%.

Insane numbers of how Nadal is able to clutch out so many of his matches, while Federer is very average.

I think this is part of the explanation of his decline this year. Not being able to play the big points as well because of mental confidence. He's able to grit through a lot of matches in the past through sheer will despite getting outplayed.
 

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Federer hasn't played big points well for years now. He's always squandered break points especially for most of the 2nd half of his career
 

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There was no one really to push Federer into tight situations during 2004-2007, except for a 19 year old Nadal. Roddick would choke even harder proven at 2009 Wimbledon.
 
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Obviously numbers alone don't tell the whole story

Nadals technique always allowed him to play a safe style game and this led to the opponent making an error

Federers shot technique is much more risky and therefore I'd expect the stat especially on the big points
 
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There was no one really to push Federer into tight situations during 2004-2007, except for a 19 year old Nadal. Roddick would choke even harder proven at 2009 Wimbledon.
Except against djokovic who he owns in the h2h
 

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http://www.ft.com/ig/features/baseline/federer-nadal-different-paths-greatness/

So called "Simpson's Paradox"

Nadal has won 13.3% of matches where he won less points than opponent. Thats insane, more than double average and other top 4. Average is ~5-6%

Federer 4.1%, Nole 6.3%, 6.7%

Nadal has also lost only 1.6% where he won more points than opponent. In comparison, Federer 3.4%, Nole 1.9%, Murray 3.1%.

Insane numbers of how Nadal is able to clutch out so many of his matches, while Federer is very average.

I think this is part of the explanation of his decline this year. Not being able to play the big points as well because of mental confidence. He's able to grit through a lot of matches in the past through sheer will despite getting outplayed.
Hey pssst, Rafa's serve is bad :secret:
 
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