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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
So now MarkChan presents you the best tennis analysis after predicting that Nadal would win in 4 correctly with spectacular insights. (just kidding:angel:)

Return of Serve:
He stays far back to return serve so variations in serving has little effect on him since he can see it clearly from far back and no matter what you serve he does that forehand topspin return to put the ball back to the opponent's baseline with sufficient depth.

The only chance to get some easy points is to make more first serve in but since you can at best have 60%-70% and he can return at least half of these first serves well you can have at most 35% easy pts from serve on clay from him.

As for second serve, I find Novak's second serve pretty good today actually. Topspin+nice speed+enough depth but Nadal has enough time on this surface to move to the forehand side and since he is far back the depth and topspin of second serve have no threat to him. So when you don't have first serve in it basically means you can only win that point by baseline battle against Nadal.

Serve
The two best returners(Djokovic, Murray) today can't get return Nadal's first serve and even some of the second serve back into the court. Nadal isn't even serving at his best in this year's RG. (His best were 2010USO, 2012AO, 2012 RG)
His serve isn't the fastest but it is effective on clay. It has so much slice while it bounces high simultaneously sometimes. It makes his opponent difficult to deal with and they don't have that ability to stay far back to return since they don't have that power like Nadal. So you can't return Nadal's second serve and Nadal returns your second serve with ease.

Baseline
What do I have to say here? If you can win 40% points from the baseline against Nadal you are probably the best already.

You may get a winner by exerting pressure on Nadal's backhand first and then go for the winner by hitting to the open court (his forehand side). But if that shot isn't good enough, he who stays far back to defend will crazily return a heavy topspin strike from his forehand side and ruin all your good efforts. It is impossible to hit so many good shots against Nadal in BO5 on clay.

If one of your groundstrokes is a bit weak, you will be instantly punished by Nadal's forehand winner, which is very safe with good net clearance due to the topspin and lands really deep, compensating for the lack of speed (though it isn't that slow). When Nadal counter attacks, you probably lose that point for 95%.

I find Djokovic a bit stupid today to go for that backhand cross-court to forehand side thinking there was an open court too early and is punished by that forehand down-the-line a lot. I remember after one of those points he used his racket to hit his head. Not sure if it is for this reason.

Net play, dropshot
I still think net play is a good way to win some points from Nadal. You have to be mentally prepared for that passing shots from Nadal knowing it would be made sometimes and comfort yourself that a 50% success rate on net isn't that bad. Give him some visual pressure and he may make mistake being forced to make the passing shots. It is more like a gamble. So you can only beat Nadal with extreme luck and it will be unlikely to happen!

You can play the dropshot, but be sure that you won't do that when the ball lands high on your court. Because when you hits the dropshots this way it will probably also bounce high and Nadal can 100% chase it down with that crazy speed even though you may successfully surprise him. Good quality drop shot won't work too, you must surprise him also when he stays pretty far back. That means a point won by dropshot successfully needs surprise+good quality. That is extremely tough. You can still gamble like going to the net to try to close out that long baseline rally after taking a bit of advantage, testing your luck of the day.

Philippe Chartier, Roland Garros, Slamdal
When you compare court Philippe Chartier with other famous clay courts, you know this court is the slowest and has the highest ball bouncing. And Roland Garros is usually sunny, making the court more dreadful for the challengers when the ball gets that extra bounce under sunny condition. You can see that Djokovic gives away free points in this year and last year's RG because of wrong contact with the ball which is supposed to be non-aggressive from Nadal. You never see him making these mistakes against Nadal in other clay courts. Besides, Slamdal peak at slams, making it even harder to dethrone him.

BO5, Stamina, Luck
It seems the only way to beat him is extremely good tennis+ extreme luck. But in a BO5 match, it is really difficult to pull an upset, especially on clay where you can't rely on serve that much to hold. You also probably lacks that stamina to take the 5th set against Nadal. And do you really think your luck can sustain 3 sets?

Injured Nadal
So how to beat Nadal? When he is injured? No, he will recover just in time for some reasons. He is serving his best in this season today without being affected by that injury. Unless he can't walk anymore and has to withdraw, he will not be beaten by injury.

Revolutionary Tennis Technology and Court Change
Humans can't beat him.
This beast is just too good. The only way to beat him is through no-human way. That means revolutionary tennis technologies and court change. Tennis racket technologies especially is always a big factor. Before it evolved, people volley a lot. But with its evolution, it favored big serving, then baseline game. Nadal capitalizes this to the extreme on the most appropriate surface. The court also slows it down for him. So unless there is another change in no-human factors I just don't see anyone beating him in RG. He'll probably win at least 3 more RG titles. Take my words.
 

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Discussion Starter #2
People should read my thread rather than those nutritionless wishful thinking thread!
 

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I have to admit I truly think it may be impossible now, Novak didn't play his best but Rafa played brilliantly for large parts of that match, no one comes close to him on this surface...
 

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Discussion Starter #4
I have to admit I truly think it may be impossible now, Novak didn't play his best but Rafa played brilliantly for large parts of that match, no one comes close to him on this surface...
You should read my analysis word for word.
 

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I have to admit I truly think it may be impossible now, Novak didn't play his best but Rafa played brilliantly for large parts of that match, no one comes close to him on this surface...
What MarkChan, by the way never a Djoker-Fan, wrote is not totally wrong. His biggest advantage is BO5 and his fitness; imagine today´s final as a BO3, Rafa would have some problems after Nole winning the first set
 

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We don't need an analysis that the sun will rise tomorrow morning..
 

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Discussion Starter #10

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Discussion Starter #12
I have to admit I truly think it may be impossible now, Novak didn't play his best but Rafa played brilliantly for large parts of that match, no one comes close to him on this surface...
Anyway, Novak forced the 5th last year but the difference between total points won by both was the largest actually.

12: 9pts
13: 19pts
14: 14pts
 

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Anyway, Novak forced the 5th last year but the difference between total points won by both was the largest actually.

12: 9pts
13: 19pts
14: 14pts
2013 was properly Rafa´s worst RG.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
2013 was properly Rafa´s worst RG.
He was just bad on key points. The match was under his control indeed, leading by a big margin in total points won
 

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I find Djokovic a bit stupid today to go for that forehand too early and is punished by that forehand down-the-line a lot. I remember after one of those points he used his racket to hit his head. Not sure if it is for this reason.
He didn't go for that forehand too early, I remember he hit way to much for Nadal's forehand when he was out of position (too much inside the court) and could easily finish with a backhand DTL, but he stupidly hit one shot to much to the forehand.
You may get a winner by exerting pressure on Nadal's backhand first and then go for the winner by hitting to the open court (his forehand side). But if that shot isn't good enough, he who stays far back to defend will crazily return a heavy topspin strike from his forehand side and ruin all your good efforts. It is impossible to hit so many good shots against Nadal in BO5 on clay.
Djokovic showed us that on hardcourts and other clay courts, attack the forehand first, then finish with a BH DTL or a BH crosscourt, inside out forhand is working the best against Rafa. Nadal's forehand is worse in defending than his BH. But because of the clay, he has more time for his forehand, can hit flat shots with more topspin so doing this on clay is extremely tiring for the brain.

I think the biggest problems was (as in all top players matches) Djokovic wasn't there in head, he is believing he can beat Nadal in hardcourts BO5(although he didn't last year) and in any BO3 tournament, but he made a lot of unforced error today, in the last 3 set, miss easy net putaways and so on, Nadal has the upper hand in RG.

Also the biggest weapon was, in this match for Nadal was his BH slice. He used it really well against Djokovic, he probably win the match because of that. The tactical mistake from Djokovic was hitting flat balls on Nadal's forehand. Because he wasnt in top form today (his shots were too short sometimes) he couldn't hit his flat shots near the line, and if it bounced at the T-line Nadal could generate a lot of spin easily. This is not a problem in hard courts because the surface is much faster than RG. He couldnt hit flat balls too land because that would be tactical suicide, he would make a lot of errors then. If I were him, I would use more topspin balls from my BH side, to his forehand because Nadal couldn't generate that much spin if he would need to hit the balls in his shoulder height. And with a lot of topspin it is easier to hit near the baseline.

And the funny thing is that Djokovic could win the match if he didn't make those errors on his serve. In the last set I was just laughing, Djokovic is much stronger mentally usually. I have to mentione someone pointed out after Miami final that Djokovic was afraid of serving out the match, you can remember he made everything for a brake there. So it seems, Djokovic is actually more confident if he dont need to serve. Funny things of tennis :D
 

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The only way is to wait until he turns 32-33 or something. He will be slower in movement which will affect in a negative way his whole - "run like mad" game. No other way. Philippe Chartier is too damn slow and he can return everything now. Yes for sure you can make a winner against him but you will need a lot of amazing shots and sometimes even this is not enough. No player in the world could sustain such level for 3/5 sets. Also his game literally destroys your mind. When you made 3 or 4 amazing shots that no one else could return and still point goes to Nadal it's just too depressing. You ask yourself what else should i do cause you are perfect and yet is not enough.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
He didn't go for that forehand too early, I remember he hit way to much for Nadal's forehand when he was out of position (too much inside the court) and could easily finish with a backhand DTL, but he stupidly hit one shot to much to the forehand.
I edited. Bad English there. you can read it again
 

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Soderling beat him, so this thread is invalid.
 

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Discussion Starter #19

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Didn't read that pile of bs from a garbage poster.

Dull was beaten in 2009, was arguably one point away from losing last year, and won this year mainly thanks to suffocating weather: his level of play was not very good to say the least.

I'm almost glad they banned ACC when I see such obvious campaigning and disugsting flooding!
 
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