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We already had a similar thread by IBM where he explores the alternate universe in which Federer, Nadal, Djokovic all didn't exist, so we had a very interesting list of grand slam winners, but in this thread, we get to see the implications of only one member of the big 3 out of the picture. It's not easy to guess what would've happened in the final of slams without one of the big 3 who actually won that slam. However, when we have another member of the big 3 playing the final we can be pretty safe in assuming he'd won against the other guy (who lost in the SF to the member of the big 3 that we've taken out of the picture in this alternate universe).

My guesses probably won't be right so you can feel free to suggest who would've won the actual final.

So let's see.

FEDERER DOESN'T EXIST

WB 2003 -
Mark Philippoussis vs Andy Roddick - I'm going with Roddick as the winner.
AO 2004 - Marat Safin vs Juan Carlos Ferrero - Safin
WB 2004 -
Andy Roddick vs Sebastien Grosjean - Roddick
USO 2004
- Tim Henman vs Lleyton Hewitt - Hewitt
WB 2005 -
Lleyton Hewitt vs Andy Roddick - Roddick
USO 2005 -
Lleyton Hewitt vs Andre Agassi - Agassi
AO 2006 -
Nicolas Kiefer vs Marcos Baghdatis - Baghdatis
WB 2006 -
Jonas Bjorkman vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
USO 2006 -
Nikolay Davydenko vs Andy Roddick - tough one, Davydenko
AO 2007 -
Andy Roddick vs Fernando Gonzalez - Roddick
WB 2007 -
Richard Gasquet vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
USO 2007 -
Nikolay Davydenko vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic
USO 2008 -
Andy Murray vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic
RG 2009 -
Robin Soderling vs Juan Martin del Potro - Del Potro
WB 2009
- Andy Roddick vs Tommy Haas - Roddick
AO 2010 -
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Andy Murray - Murray
WB 2012 -
Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray - Murray
AO 2017
- Stan Wawrinka vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
WB 2017 -
Marin Cilic vs Tomas Berdych - Cilic
AO 2018 -
Marin Cilic vs Tomas Berdych* - Cilic

Out of 20 of Federer's slams:

Roddick receives 5, Nadal 3, Djokovic 2, Murray 2, Cilic 2, Safin 1, Hewitt 1, Baghdatis 1, Davydenko 1, Agassi 1, Del Potro 1

Conclusion: Roddick is the biggest winner (loser).

* Chung retired vs Federer in the SF of AO 2018, so in this scenario, Berdych is in the final (no Federer) also due to retirement by Chung.

NADAL DOESN'T EXIST

RG 2005 -
Roger Federer vs Mariano Puerta - Federer
RG 2006 -
Roger Federer vs Ivan Ljubicic - Federer
RG 2007 -
Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic - Federer
RG 2008 -
Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic
WB 2008 -
Roger Federer vs Rainer Schuttler - Federer
AO 2009 -
Fernando Verdasco vs Roger Federer - Federer
RG 2010 -
Robin Soderling vs Jurgen Melzer - Soderling
WB 2010 -
Tomas Berdych vs Andy Murray - Murray
USO 2010 -
Mikhail Youzhny vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic
RG 2011 -
Andy Murray vs Roger Federer - Federer
RG 2012 -
Novak Djokovic vs David Ferrer - Djokovic
RG 2013 -
Novak Djokovic vs David Ferrer - Djokovic
USO 2013 -
Novak Djokovic vs Richard Gasquet - Djokovic
RG 2014
- Andy Murray vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic
RG 2017 -
Stan Wawrinka vs Dominic Thiem - Wawrinka
USO 2017 -
Juan Martin del Potro vs Kevin Anderson - Del Potro
RG 2018 -
Juan Martin del Potro vs Dominic Thiem - Thiem
RG 2019 -
Dominic Thiem vs Roger Federer - Thiem
USO 2019 -
Danil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini - Medvedev
RG 2020 -
Novak Djokovic vs Diego Schwartzmann - Djokovic

Out of 20 of Nadal's slams:

Djokovic receives 7, Federer receives 6, Thiem 2, Soderling 1, Murray 1, Wawrinka 1, Del Potro 1, Medvedev 1

Conclusion: A bit surprising here, but Djokovic looks like the biggest winner (loser). If we give Federer RG 2008 however, they are tied.

DJOKOVIC DOESN'T EXIST

AO 2008
- Roger Federer vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Federer
AO 2011 -
Andy Murray vs Roger Federer - Federer
WB 2011 -
Rafael Nadal vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Nadal
USO 2011 -
Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
AO 2012 -
Andy Murray vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
AO 2013 -
David Ferrer vs Andy Murray - Murray
WB 2014 -
Grigor Dimitrov vs Roger Federer - Federer
AO 2015 -
Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray - (tough one) Murray
WB 2015 -
Richard Gasquet vs Roger Federer - Federer
USO 2015 -
Marin Cilic vs Roger Federer - Federer
AO 2016 -
Roger Federer vs Andy Murray - Federer
RG 2016 -
Dominic Thiem vs Andy Murray - (tough) but going with Murray
WB 2018 -
Kevin Anderson vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
USO 2018 -
Juan Martin del Potro vs Kei Nishikori - Del Potro
AO 2019 -
Lucas Pouille vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
WB 2019 -
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Roger Federer - Federer
AO 2020 -
Dominic Thiem vs Roger Federer - Thiem

Out of 17 out Djokovic's slams:

Federer receives 7, Nadal 5, Murray 3, Del Potro 1, Thiem 1

Conclusion: Federer the biggest winner (loser) again, perhaps he even gets to 8 if we give him AO 2020.

SLAM TALLY

NO FEDERER

Nadal 23, Djokovic 19, Roddick 6, Murray 5

NO NADAL

Federer 26, Djokovic 24, Murray & Wawrinka 4, Thiem 3

NO DJOKOVIC

Federer 27, Nadal 25, Murray 6,

Ultimate conclusion: Federer is the biggest loser. The impact of Nadal/Djokovic being taken out of the picture increases his slam tally significantly. The impact of Federer being out of the picture increases Nadal's slam tally by 3, and Djokovic's by 2. Federer has only +2 slam lead over Djoko without Nadal, and +2 over Nadal without Djoko.

Nadal would be on +4 over Djoko without Federer. Djokovic is not the slam race leader in any of these scenarios.
 

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You can imagine tennis without Nadal or Djokovic, but you simply can't imagine tennis without Maestro!
 

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I'm not subscribing to the notion that the latest of Federer's beaten opponents would be in the final, thats a logical flaw (see 2004 US Open, Henman would be destroyed by Agassi).

Also of course its possible, results on the other side of the bracket would be different (I mean seeding as a whole would be completely flipped).

FEDERER DOESN'T EXIST

WB 2003 -
Mark Philippoussis vs Andy Roddick - Philippoussis
AO 2004 - Marat Safin/David Nalbandian vs Juan Carlos Ferrero - Safin/Nalbandian
WB 2004 -
Andy Roddick vs Sebastien Grosjean - Roddick
USO 2004
- Andre Agassi vs Lleyton Hewitt - Agassi
WB 2005 -
Lleyton Hewitt vs Andy Roddick - Hewitt
USO 2005 -
Lleyton Hewitt/David Nalbandian vs Andre Agassi - Hewitt/Nalbandian
AO 2006 -
Tommy Haas vs Marcos Baghdatis - Haas/Baghdatis
WB 2006 -
Tomas Berdych vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
USO 2006 -
Nikolay Davydenko vs Andy Roddick - Roddick
AO 2007 -
Andy Roddick vs Fernando Gonzalez - Gonzalez
WB 2007 -
Marat Safin/Richard Gasquet vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
USO 2007 -
Nikolay Davydenko vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic
USO 2008 -
Andy Murray vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic/Murray (important to note that Murray beat Djokovic both of the previous run-up Masters in Canada and Cincy)
RG 2009 -
Robin Soderling vs Juan Martin del Potro - Del Potro
WB 2009
- Andy Roddick vs Robin Söderling - Roddick
AO 2010 -
Nikolay Davydenko vs Andy Murray - Murray
WB 2012 -
Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray - Djokovic/Murray
AO 2017
- Stan Wawrinka vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
WB 2017 -
Marin Cilic vs Tomas Berdych - Cilic
AO 2018 -
Marin Cilic vs Tomas Berdych - Cilic

Lol at 2017 WB+2018 AO.

Slams: +3 Roddick, +2 Nadal, +2 Djokovic (1-3), +2 Murray (1-3), +2 Cilic, +1 Agassi, 0-2 Nalbandian, +1 Hewitt, +1 Gonzalez, +1 Del Potro, 0-1 Safin, 1 for either Haas/Baghdatis
 

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Interesting analysis. I mean Roger has the worst h2h between the 3 of them hence he is the biggest loser in the actual scenario. Just proven by those simulations above which is logical.
 

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RG 2008 - Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic

Ummm no, I disagree with this one. At this point Federer was far and away the second best player on the tour for several years.

I think Federer is definitely the biggest loser based on these three scenarios, I agree. I mean he would've done two calendar slams back to back (06/07) if Nadal didn't exist :|

But of course, I don't think all of this so easily extrapolatable. I think not having Nadal as an opponent, or any other combo also means different motivations, different results.
 

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...

Ultimate conclusion: Federer is the biggest loser. The impact of Nadal/Djokovic being taken out of the picture increases his slam tally significantly. The impact of Federer being out of the picture increases Nadal's slam tally by 3, and Djokovic's by 2. Federer has only +2 slam lead over Djoko without Nadal, and +2 over Nadal without Djoko.

Nadal would be on +4 over Djoko without Federer. Djokovic is not the slam race leader in any of these scenarios.
Although peak Federer has played young Djokovic just once in the HC slam final during 2007-2011 period (the same as Nadal during the longer 2005-2011 period), they've met seven more times before the final (six HC semifinals 2008-2011), 4:4 score, so, Federer would've probably won two-three slams out of those four SF losses to Djokovic at AO&USO.
 

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You forgot the slams that a certain player won because the other 2 took each other out in the semis. E.g USO 10 Federer nadal instead of Djokovic nadal. I’d even have given Federer the edge in this match
 

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Statical analysis has a missing leg, you have to replace the BIG3 missing with a reasonably good hypotetical player. but if the whole big 3 didnt exist those who would have earned the most of it are probably Roddick, Hewitt and Safin, and they have become more confident based on their sucess but I think not to the point of reaching Big 3 level of success..and probably since 2012 we would have the same scenario as the WTA... Probably Murray would be a goat candidate, and Delpo, Cilic and specially wawrinka with more slams...
 

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Pretty interesting analysis. 2008 FO final between Djok and Fed would've been a tough one absent Nadal, but I think giving that one to Nole is reasonable.
 

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Far too many variables of form, marriage of games, confidence, adversity .. and draw.
We remove an element, it recomposes the whole.

Motivational too, as already said.

Federer was a booster for the other 2 big3s, a goal, without him everything changes.

Without Nadal, RG hierarchy is completely shaken, with unknown consequences, and not subjected to the renunciation of other candidates.

Djokovic who does not come to mingle with the mano mano Fedal is another.

It's an infinity of variables

I retain siddy's conclusion

But of course, I don't think all of this so easily extrapolatable. I think not having Nadal as an opponent, or any other combo also means different motivations, different results.
 

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I like these alternate reality hypothesis but it's worth noting that the actual outcome would likely have been totally different from the presented scenarios. Small changes can cause big differences after some time (butterfly effect). Different seeds, different draws, different opponents and some x-factors (like career-ending injuries in hypothetical matches that never happened or lower motivation with lesser competition). The tennis world would have been completely different and the OP's calculations is a very primitive way of estimating infinitely complicated alternate reality.
 

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Great work mate. Lets take it with a bit a salt because you never know what could happen. And alot of variables.
But looking at these stats makes us wonder what would of been.

So in my book lets be gratefull we got to see these 3 great players in our lifetime.
 

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Wow i didnt know Nadal took away so many slams to Djokovic and Federer.
+ I think Djokovic took more opportunities from Federer , i was convince that Nadal hurt Federer more.
 

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please djokovic
 

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Discussion Starter #18
Yes, the whole alternative reality here is very flawed: I simplified it as much as possible because if I hadn't it'd be just too much work (even as it is, took a while to compile it) and the results would still be questionable. Still, we can easily see who'd won a good number of these slams, like Rafa winning WB 2018 without Djokovic or Federer winning 3-5 RG's without Rafa around. I believe that much is correct: with one of the big 3 out of the way, the other two would have a very big chance to win the slam if they entered and reached the finishing stages.

Ofc, the biggest problem is how do you replace one of the big 3 if he isn't in the draw and the consequences that would have...
 

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FEDERER DOESN'T EXIST

WB 2003 -
Mark Philippoussis vs Andy Roddick - Phillippoussis
AO 2004 -
Marat Safin/David Nalbandian vs Juan Carlos Ferrero - Safin/Nalbandian
WB 2004 -
Andy Roddick vs Lleyton Hewitt - Roddick
USO 2004
- Andre Agassi vs Lleyton Hewitt - Agassi
WB 2005 -
Lleyton Hewitt vs Andy Roddick - Hewitt
USO 2005 -
Lleyton Hewitt/David Nalbandian vs Andre Agassi - Hewitt/Nalbandian
AO 2006 -
Tommy Haas vs Marcos Baghdatis - Haas/Baghdatis
WB 2006 -
Mario Ancic vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal (some people here completely forget that Ancic was a good grasscourter, certainly better than 2006 Berdych or Bjorkman).
USO 2006 -
Nikolay Davydenko vs Andy Roddick - Roddick
AO 2007 -
Andy Roddick vs Fernando Gonzalez - Roddick
WB 2007 -
Marat Safin/Richard Gasquet vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
USO 2007 -
Nikolay Davydenko vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic
WB 2008 -
Mario Ancic vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
USO 2008 -
Andy Murray vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic/Murray (important to note that Murray beat Djokovic both of the previous run-up Masters in Canada and Cincy)
RG 2009 -
Robin Soderling vs Juan Martin del Potro - Del Potro
WB 2009
- Andy Roddick vs Robin Söderling - Roddick
AO 2010 -
Nikolay Davydenko vs Andy Murray - Murray
WB 2012 -
Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray - Murray
AO 2017
- Stan Wawrinka vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
WB 2017 -
Marin Cilic vs Milos Raonis - Cilic/Raonic (cannot discount Raonic's big serve on grass, given the fact that both Cilic and Berdych are not exactly good big serve returners).
AO 2018 -
Marin Cilic vs Tomas Berdych - Cilic

Lol at 2017 WB+2018 AO.



DJOKOVIC DOESN'T EXIST

AO 2008
- Roger Federer vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Federer
AO 2011 -
Andy Murray vs Roger Federer - Federer
WB 2011 -
Rafael Nadal vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Nadal
USO 2011 -
Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
AO 2012 -
Andy Murray vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
AO 2013 -
Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray - (tough one)Murray
WB 2014 -
Grigor Dimitrov vs Roger Federer - Federer
AO 2015 -
Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray - (tough one) Murray
WB 2015 -
Richard Gasquet vs Roger Federer - Federer
USO 2015 -
Marin Cilic vs Roger Federer - Federer
AO 2016 -
Roger Federer vs Andy Murray - Federer
RG 2016 -
Dominic Thiem vs Andy Murray - (tough) but going with Murray
WB 2018 -
Kevin Anderson vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
USO 2018 -
Juan Martin del Potro vs Kei Nishikori - Del Potro
AO 2019 -
Lucas Pouille vs Rafael Nadal - Nadal
WB 2019 -
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Roger Federer - Federer
AO 2020 -
Dominic Thiem vs Milos Raonic - Thiem


NADAL DOESN'T EXIST

RG 2005 -
Roger Federer vs Mariano Puerta - Federer
RG 2006 -
Roger Federer vs Ivan Ljubicic - Federer
RG 2007 -
Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic - Federer
RG 2008 -
Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic
WB 2008 -
Roger Federer vs Rainer Schuttler - Federer
AO 2009 -
Fernando Verdasco vs Roger Federer - Federer
RG 2010 -
Robin Soderling vs Jurgen Melzer - Soderling
WB 2010 -
Tomas Berdych vs Andy Murray - Murray
USO 2010 -
Mikhail Youzhny vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic
RG 2011 -
Andy Murray vs Roger Federer - Federer
RG 2012 -
Novak Djokovic vs David Ferrer - Djokovic
RG 2013 -
Novak Djokovic vs David Ferrer - Djokovic
USO 2013 -
Novak Djokovic vs Richard Gasquet - Djokovic
RG 2014
- Andy Murray vs Novak Djokovic - Djokovic
RG 2017 -
Stan Wawrinka vs Dominic Thiem - Wawrinka
USO 2017 -
Juan Martin del Potro vs Kevin Anderson - Del Potro
RG 2018 -
Juan Martin del Potro vs Dominic Thiem - Thiem
AO 2019 -
Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas - Djokovic
RG 2019 -
Dominic Thiem vs Roger Federer - Thiem
USO 2019 -
Danil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini - Medvedev
RG 2020 -
Novak Djokovic vs Diego Schwartzmann - Djokovic
 

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thank god they do. Imagine Fed's resume without Nadal and Djoker? Yeesh. 3-4 Calendar slams, 30-35 slams Damn Near 200 titles. . I wouldn't even want to imagine how many people would have tuned off tennis if that happened. Fed literally would have dissected the entire tour from 2003-2015 or longer.

But its goes back to the original question. "Where the fuck is the rest of the tour?" Every other era had 6-10 great tennis players around at the same time on various surfaces
 
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