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Should Nadal withdraw after the draw is released?


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Nadal recently withdrew from Paris after the tournament started: he was scheduled to play Fernando Verdasco in his opening match, who then lost in three sets to Malek Jaziri. Had Nadal done this before the tournament, Federer and Djokovic would have been the top two seeds, and they may have met in the final, thereby granting one of Federer and Djokovic 600 points and 1000 points.

Nadal's decision meant that Federer/Djokovic only gained 360 and 600 points respectively (putting Federer out of contention for the YE#1) and Djokovic seemed unable to reproduce his performance in the final. Effectively, Nadal's strategic ploy hurt both of the players most likely to take the #1 ranking from Nadal.

With that in mind, even if Nadal knows that he isn't fit to play at the ATP Finals later this month, should he wait for the draw to be released, so that Federer and Djokovic could be drawn in the same group? That way, he can increase the likelihood that Djokovic either won't get a full 1500 points (if he wins) or that Djokovic won't make the semis, harming Djokovic's potential points gain from the tournament. (It could also limit Federer's potential points gain.)

And if Nadal were to withdraw, John Isner would take his place, a very dangerous semi-final opponent for either Federer/Djokovic if he were to make it that far.

So, should Nadal do a strategic withdrawal at this year's ATP Finals?
 

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Nadal recently withdrew from Paris after the tournament started: he was scheduled to play Fernando Verdasco in his opening match, who then lost in three sets to Malek Jaziri. Had Nadal done this before the tournament, Federer and Djokovic would have been the top two seeds, and they may have met in the final, thereby granting one of Federer and Djokovic 600 points and 1000 points.

Nadal's decision meant that Federer/Djokovic only gained 360 and 600 points respectively (putting Federer out of contention for the YE#1) and Djokovic seemed unable to reproduce his performance in the final. Effectively, Nadal's strategic ploy hurt both of the players most likely to take the #1 ranking from Nadal.

With that in mind, even if Nadal knows that he isn't fit to play at the ATP Finals later this month, should he wait for the draw to be released, so that Federer and Djokovic could be drawn in the same group? That way, he can increase the likelihood that Djokovic either won't get a full 1500 points (if he wins) or that Djokovic won't make the semis, harming Djokovic's potential points gain from the tournament. (It could also limit Federer's potential points gain.)

And if Nadal were to withdraw, John Isner would take his place, a very dangerous semi-final opponent for either Federer/Djokovic if he were to make it that far.

So, should Nadal do a strategic withdrawal at this year's ATP Finals?
Overthinking, no strategy from Rafa here because Federer is irrelevant. Had Djokovic landed on Khachanov's side of the draw and lost to Khachanov in Paris's SF, Djokovic would have earned only 360 points instead of 600 points. That would have been a better deal for Rafa.

Now with Djokovic earning 600 points in Paris, if Djokovic wins all his group matches and makes to the Tour Finals final, then Rafa even winning the Tour Finals will not earn him YE#1.
 

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At WTF it won't work as two players qualify. If Djokovic and Federer land in the same group one of them will play Nadal in the SF assuming the Majorcan advances.
 

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Now with Djokovic earning 600 points in Paris, if Djokovic wins all his group matches and makes to the Tour Finals final, then Rafa even winning the Tour Finals will not earn him YE#1.
Yes, right now Novak leads Rafa by 565 points. So if they both won all their matches and Rafa beats Novak in the Final, he'd only make up 500 additional points.
 

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Yes, right now Novak leads Rafa by 565 points. So if they both won all their matches and Rafa beats Novak in the Final, he'd only make up 500 additional points.
There is also another possibility. Tio Toni decides to play va banque and tells Rafa to lose one RR match (assuming that Novak wins his group undefeated). Therefore they meet in the semifinal and then Nadal has a chance to take away additional 400 pts from Novak. Pure SF I suppose :lol:
 

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Yes, right now Novak leads Rafa by 565 points. So if they both won all their matches and Rafa beats Novak in the Final, he'd only make up 500 additional points.
Alternatively, Rafa will lose a match at the group stage of Tour Finals, face and beat Djokovic in SF, and then go on to win Tour Finals. Rafa will take home 1300 points, Djokovic only 600 points, and Rafa will keep his (last year's) YE#1.

Another scenario is, Rafa and Federer ends up in the same group, and Federer kicks Djokovic's ass in SF. That may work in Rafa's favor too.
 

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Alternatively, Rafa will lose a match at the group stage of Tour Finals, face and beat Djokovic in SF, and then go on to win Tour Finals. Rafa will take home 1300 points, Djokovic only 600 points, and Rafa will keep his (last year's) YE#1.

Another scenario is, Rafa and Federer ends up in the same group, and Federer kicks Djokovic's ass in SF. That may work in Rafa's favor too.
Nadal is a crippled wreck, he won't win a single match in London. Would love to know what some of you guys are smoking :cuckoo:
 

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Nadal knows as long as him/Djokovic are 1 and 2 seeds, Djokovic will always get Federer so he will not miss this opportunity to mess the draw.
Don't be surprised if the groups look like this:

Group 1: Djokovic, Federer, Anderson, Nishikori
Group 2: Nadal, Zverev, Thiem, Cilic

Random draws with predictable outcomes. :grin2:
 

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At WTF it won't work as two players qualify. If Djokovic and Federer land in the same group one of them will play Nadal in the SF assuming the Majorcan advances.
And that's where Luckdal's luck will end.
 

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Who knows if he is ready to play. I wouldn't be surprised if he pulls Paris Masters move once again.
I would think he will try to play but it wouldn`t surprise me if it`s like last year.He plays one match,struggles in it and after the match is over he goes home without playing all 3 matches in the group.
 

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If the draw was Friday like normal, I'd say decide before hand, but with the draw tomorrow, he has time to decide.
 
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