Mens Tennis Forums banner

1 - 20 of 81 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
810 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Following on to an earlier Post in the year, here are the Points
to be defended during the US Open Series
Code:
  New   Player     23 Jul   Summer   Summer     US  Remain
  Rank  Name       Points     AMS     Other   Open  Points
   1    Federer    7,290       535       0    1000   5,755
   2    Nadal      5,455       200       0     250   5,005
   3    Djokovic   3,245        35     120      75   3,015
   4    Davydenko  3,175        10     375     450   2,340
   5    Roddick    3,130       500       0     700   1,930
   6    Gonzalez   2,770       450      75      75   2,170
   7    Robredo    2,085       260       0     150   1,675
   8    Gasquet    2,085       355       0     150   1,580
   9    Haas       2,035       110     175     250   1,500
   10   Blake J    1,995        70       0     250   1,675

   11   Berdych    1,975       130       0     150   1,695
   12   Ljubicic   1,940       200       0       5   1,735
   13   Youzhny    1,890        70     110     450   1,260
   14   Murray     1,865       350     140     150   1,225
   15   Canas      1,607         0       0       0   1,607
   16   Ferrer     1,535       130       0      75   1,330
   17   Ferrero    1,525       385       0      35   1,105
   18   Chela      1,405        80     225       5   1,095
   19   Baghdatis  1,370        80       0      35   1,255
   20   Moya       1,295        80      75      75   1,065

   21   Hewitt     1,230        35      50     250     895
   22   Safin      1,165        10      90     150     915
   23   Mathieu    1,125        10       0      35   1,080
   24   Nalbandian 1,115        40       0      35   1,040
   25   Volandri   1,091         0     150       5     936
   26   Nieminen   1,090       130       0       5     955
   27   Tursunov   1,080       110     210      75     685
   28   Soderling  1,035        80      90      35     830
   29   Calleri     935          0     465       5     465
   30   Hrbaty      930        110      75       5     740

Thanks to the Aussie and Wimbledon, Federer still has a 700 + point lead on Nadal counting only ytd points. If Karlovic takes him out tommorrow (and I am a Nadal fan, but I know this is not likely to happen) things would be just about even before the year is done.

Plus, as some have alluded, Fed does sometimes struggle after a break. Remember at Wimbleodn when Juan Carlos Ferrero took a set off of him on grass(after being demolished by him on clay weeks before).

Karlovic being unseeded has to be one of the most mouth-watering things in tennis. The ultimate wild-card so-to-speak.

Nadal has so little do defend and Federer so much, any unusual happenings give the edge to Nadal.

In any case, if it happens they'll be within sneezing distance of each other.

...one can only hope, lol...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
17,866 Posts
Federer has entry ranking points to gain in Cincinnati, doesn't he? I think your math might be a little bit off and you may be counting on a too many 'ifs'. Of course, anything can happen and there is no guarantee that Federer will finish the year number one. Either one or both of those players could have bad luck, or some kind of injury, or whatever, and Djokovic could end up number one for all we know. It's so close, it just seems kind of futile to speculate at this point. The US Open will tell us much more.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
810 Posts
Discussion Starter #4
Federer has entry ranking points to gain in Cincinnati, doesn't he?
Yes, very true. That is not made apparent with the chart. But, you're right. If he loses to Karlovic here and then wins in Cincy, things are all even again.

Nonetheless, though, those are the only points he has to gain. He won everything else from now until Indian Wells. Even if Nadal doesn't get it this year, it's likely to happen next year.
 

·
Anastasia Komananov, KGB
Joined
·
53,509 Posts
The numbers suggest Nadal has a slim chance to overtake Federer in the next month or two, and a better chance of at least narrowing the gap and snapping at Federer's heels.

Regardless of Federer, it's going to depend on Nadal playing much better on these faster hardcourts than he has managed last year and some extent the year before - ie much better than a QF showing at the US Open and at least one final in these two TMS events to have any realistic shot of overtaking Federer as #1 before next season.

Federer, though, has given Rafa a bit of room here with his lack of optionals so far this year, and may need to add more events post US Open if he wants to hang on to his #1 spot, assuming Rafa does click into high gear in the next month and gains a chunk of points.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
810 Posts
Discussion Starter #7
The numbers suggest Nadal has a slim chance to overtake Federer in the next month or two, and a better chance of at least narrowing the gap and snapping at Federer's heels.

Regardless of Federer, it's going to depend on Nadal playing much better on these faster hardcourts than he has managed last year and some extent the year before - ie much better than a QF showing at the US Open and at least one final in these two TMS events to have any realistic shot of overtaking Federer as #1 before next season.

Federer, though, has given Rafa a bit of room here with his lack of optionals so far this year, and may need to add more events post US Open if he wants to hang on to his #1 spot, assuming Rafa does click into high gear in the next month and gains a chunk of points.
Winning Indian Wells made all the difference in the world. It made the numbers a real factor, as well as his clout. Putting together a Masters title on hardcourts after not winning a title for 10 months was a really meaningful thing. Federer also losing early was just icing on the cake at the time, but now we see it could come back to haunt him.
 

·
Anastasia Komananov, KGB
Joined
·
53,509 Posts
Winning Indian Wells made all the difference in the world. It made the numbers a real factor, as well as his clout. Putting together a Masters title on hardcourts after not winning a title for 10 months was a really meaningful thing. Federer also losing early was just icing on the cake at the time, but now we see it could come back to haunt him.
Well it helped in terms of the confidence that had been shaky for quite some time, certainly.

Federer hurt himself with his early losses in IW and Miami, and not playing Doha and Halle has compounded the problem. Nadal also adding Stuttgart this year narrowed the gap even more.

But let's not get carried away here, Federer is still 1835 points ahead as of this week. He has a lot to defend in the second half of the year, but doesn't usually struggle to defend most of his titles. Assuming Federer makes the final of at least 1 TMS and the final of the US Open (and really it's hard to see how he won't) then the gap is not going to narrow all that fast. A dramatic overhaul seems unlikely - Nadal must continue to plug away at the deficit like he has done all season, and force Federer to respond, if he can. Nadal needs to do better than QF at at least 1 TMS and do better than the QF in the US Open. Then the remainder of the season could get interesting in terms of the race.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,712 Posts
The thing is, Rafa currently leads Federer by 135 Race points. Now, Federer winning the two TMS and the US Open, which isn't that unreasonable now with the byes, gives Federer 120 points inward on that lead, and that's if Rafael Nadal gets to the final of all three, which seems absurd, given his history.

Now, with Rafa up only 15, and Federer not counting optionals, and still having all indoor events left, it's a struggle to imagine Rafa staying ahead. Rafa's attempt to pass Federer depends very largely on these three events.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,159 Posts
Thanks to the Aussie and Wimbledon, Federer achieved his 10th and 11th Slams. I doubt retaining the No. 1 position is more important than that.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
17,866 Posts
Thanks for bringing up the optionals. Did Roger play all 5 optionals last year, or did he get to number one with just four? If it was four, then he does still have room to pick up points.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
810 Posts
Discussion Starter #14
Thanks to the Aussie and Wimbledon, Federer achieved his 10th and 11th Slams. I doubt retaining the No. 1 position is more important than that.
It's definetly not, though I'm sure at the start of this year Federer expected to do all that and stay #1, and that there wasn't any question about it.

But, he doesn't have 14 slams yet, and if he doesn't finish the year as #1, that's another record Sampras gets to hang on to through Federer's reign.

He's, after all, not putting together 6 more consecutive #1 seasons following this year.

Getting to #1 will also mean a lot to Nadal, and it'll liven things up a little for all of us.

You know, finally some contention.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,712 Posts
Thanks for bringing up the optionals. Did Roger play all 5 optionals last year, or did he get to number one with just four? If it was four, then he does still have room to pick up points.
Well, currently he's only carrying Dubai and Basel. I think he may have played one or two others last year, but not more.
 

·
Anastasia Komananov, KGB
Joined
·
53,509 Posts
Thanks for bringing up the optionals. Did Roger play all 5 optionals last year, or did he get to number one with just four? If it was four, then he does still have room to pick up points.
He played all 5 last year.

Doha, Dubai, Halle, Japan and Basel I think.

This year he hasn't played an optional at all apart from Dubai. So if he's in the mood he can certainly pick up some more points to safeguard his #1 for the remainder of the season. He's also planning to return to Doha next year.

However I don't think it's hugely important now - he has the record for consecutive weeks, I think he's likely to break the total number of weeks record eventually even if he doesn't do it consecutively....he's up to 11 slams and counting and he's probably at his peak or starting to edge off it, physically speaking. The slams are what get you remembered. It wouldn't be a total tragedy if Nadal did snatch the #1 spot. It wasn't when Pete lost it - repeatedly - and it wouldn't be now.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,712 Posts
He played all 5 last year.

Doha, Dubai, Halle, Japan and Basel I think.

This year he hasn't played an optional at all apart from Dubai. So if he's in the mood he can certainly pick up some more points to safeguard his #1 for the remainder of the season. He's also planning to return to Doha next year.

However I don't think it's hugely important now - he has the record for consecutive weeks, I think he's likely to break the total number of weeks record eventually even if he doesn't do it consecutively....he's up to 11 slams and counting and he's probably at his peak or starting to edge off it, physically speaking. The slams are what get you remembered. It wouldn't be a total tragedy if Nadal did snatch the #1 spot. It wasn't when Pete lost it - repeatedly - and it wouldn't be now.
Doha's going to be important if he's not leading Nadal by enough when he's going into the Australian Open.
 

·
Anastasia Komananov, KGB
Joined
·
53,509 Posts
Certainly just having this to talk about as a possibility adds a bit of interest - you have to figure Nadal will do better the second half of this season and narrow that gap down, and make Federer have to respond if he wants to hang on at the top - until now this hasn't been an issue for a long time.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,424 Posts
And people say Safintards are delusional. :rolleyes:
 
1 - 20 of 81 Posts
Top