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Who could oust Nadal at RG 2020?

  • Thiem

    Votes: 20 60.6%
  • Djokovic

    Votes: 11 33.3%
  • Tsitsipas

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Zverev

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Federer

    Votes: 1 3.0%
  • Medvedev

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Wawrinka

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 1 3.0%

  • Total voters
    33
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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Current odds at oddschecker are:

Nadal: 1/1
Djokovic: 16/5
Thiem: 4/1
Tsitsipas: 18/1
Zverev: 20/1
Fed: 25/1
Meddy: 33/1
Wawa: 40/1

personally I think Stan is a bigger threat than 1 in 41 and Medvedev seems underestimated, however the bigger question is: which of Thiem or Nole is more likely to beat Nadal. I do realize it depends on which side of the draw Thiem falls and that that’s a crucial factor which alters the odds a lot.
 

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Thiem is much more dangerous for Djokovic on clay than Nadal is. But Djokovic is a bigger threat to Nadal than Thiem.
 

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Thiem should be ahead of Djokovic because he showed more at RG in recent years.
 

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Thiem isn't any threat to Nadal at RG with that backhand. Novak is Nadal's biggest threat at RG. Novak will have two weeks to get ready for RG after USO, which should be plenty of time to win it.
 

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Corona.

On a more serious note...

personally I think Stan is a bigger threat than 1 in 41 and Medvedev seems underestimated, however the bigger question is: which of Thiem or Nole is more likely to beat Nadal. I do realize it depends on which side of the draw Thiem falls and that that’s a crucial factor which alters the odds a lot.
Really?! Have you seen Medvedev on clay? It's quite funny actually.
 

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Thiem should be ahead of Djokovic because he showed more at RG in recent years.
Of course not. I mean Novak was unlucky to be on the same part of the draw as Thiem last 4 years I think ( Also Thiem was lucky to avoid Nadal before the final last 2 times). If Thiem is on Nadal side there is no question that Novak will be clear 2nd favorite. However if they are on the same side of the draw then Thiem might be slight favorite over Novak. All in all Thiem can not be favorite over Novak right now.

Give Nadal Novak's 2019 draw and schedule of play, i think final between them would be close to 50:50, maybe 60:40 Nadal. If Thiem is in Nadal's half anything can happen, otherwise Nadal is a huge favorite.
 

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Thiem barely beat Novak in the worst possible conditions Novak could play in (a tornado). And it required choking from Novak also. If Novak is in form, he takes time away from Thiem and makes him look bad. Thiem is so overrated.
 

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Wouldn’t even give Medved those odds (never made it past 1st round) & Wawa never the same after physical FO17 SF vs Murray.
 

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Thiem.
 

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Really?! Have you seen Medvedev on clay? It's quite funny actually.
Yeah Baseless to count on Medvedev flat striking on clay. Lacks the power , Nadal and decent clay players could stay all day in front of him and outhit him. He has little chance even at reaching QF .
 

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Thiem, he is in the thick of his career at age 26, and he can take a set or two off Rafa, if they meet in the final or semifinal. And Rafa is getting old.

On the other hand, Djokovic is past his prime. I would not be surprised if he loses to Rafa in straight sets on RG clay. It is not hard court. Rafa will do to Djokovic at RG the same thing Djokovic did to Rafa when they last met at the Australian Open.

Btw, I would want to see the repeat of Thiem and Djokovic semifinal. It is only fair that the second best and third best on clay vying for a spot to play the best player ever on clay. Please don't spoil it, RG draw-makers.
 

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Of course not. I mean Novak was unlucky to be on the same part of the draw as Thiem last 4 years I think ( Also Thiem was lucky to avoid Nadal before the final last 2 times). If Thiem is on Nadal side there is no question that Novak will be clear 2nd favorite. However if they are on the same side of the draw then Thiem might be slight favorite over Novak. All in all Thiem can not be favorite over Novak right now.

Give Nadal Novak's 2019 draw and schedule of play, i think final between them would be close to 50:50, maybe 60:40 Nadal. If Thiem is in Nadal's half anything can happen, otherwise Nadal is a huge favorite.
Thiem barely beat Novak in the worst possible conditions Novak could play in (a tornado). And it required choking from Novak also. If Novak is in form, he takes time away from Thiem and makes him look bad. Thiem is so overrated.
I am no Federer fan, but Federer had a great run at 2019 RG, and would have had a good chance to beat Djokovic in the semifinal, last year. Federer beat Wawrinka in 4 sets in Quarterfinal last year, who beat Federer in straight sets in 2015 when he won the RG title and two other times on clay. All 3 wins of Wawrinka against Federer were on clay.

Federer would have fancied his chances against Djokovic at RG, if they had met in the semifinal, last year. You should be glad that Djokovic ended up in Thiem's half.
 

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Lol he hasn't beaten Novak in almost a decade at a slam. Please learn tennis, thanks.
This. Nadal fans dreaming about Nadal destroying Djokovic while the fact is that Djokovic needs to get past players like Cecchinato to do that. As long as Cecchinato kind of players undress Djokovic the big final wont happen.
 

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Discussion Starter #18
Okay, I won’t defend my Medvedev comment, I’m clearly out of my league here.

I do however think Thiem is a bigger danger to Nadal here than even Nole. However, in this calculation I’m sort of looking at them 1 on 1 in a final. If you factor in the US Open (possibility) as well as draw complexities, the odds change. As it is, Thiem has something to prove I think.
 

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Well, I suppose it's always better to lose while injured and/or recovering from surgery than losing while healthy, like Nadal did all those years at Wimbledon, to Berdych and Verdasco at AO, etc.
 

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Do some of y'all really think a guy with that kind of one-handed backhand is going to be a threat to Nadal at RG of all places.. a Bo5 on clay? Thiem has only won one set in three RG tries against Nadal. Here are the sets: 6-3, 6-4, 6-0, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1

Most of them haven't even been close. Thiem is no threat to Nadal, whereas Novak can beat him and likely will, given the mental edge he has over Nadal currently.
 
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