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Discussion Starter #1
I know all the ranking pros have said this is nearly impossible, but after looking at some numbers, I observe that this isn't the case.

First, let's assume Nadal wins Miami(to play with the #'s).

This results in:

1 Federer 6,600
2 Nadal 6,080
3 Djokovic 4,785

This puts Nadal 520 points away from Federer before the clay season begins. The problem cited in assuming that Nadal will have to bide his time until summer (to get to #1) is that he is at a 500+ deficit with no opportunity to improve. This is partially true. The only place he can improve is at Hamburg. He won everything else, and made the final in Hamburg.

If he wins *everything* (which is only a one match differential from last year) he would add 150 points (and we'll assume Federer defends his clay points, save his title there, for the sake of argument), thus Federer (as a losing finalist in Hamburg) loses 150 points (500-350). This results in:

1 Federer 6,450
2 Nadal 6,230

This results in a 220 point differential. Now, IMO, Federer is going to be getting slapped around a bit this clay season. Even his most rabid fans must realize that clay is still his weakest surface, and when he's losing to Roddick and Fish on hard courts, bad things are in store for clay...right? :shrug:

So, (admittedly there are a lot of assumptions here, but not impossible ones) if Nadal wins this tournament and wins *everything* during the clay season, Federer is one first round loss away (perhaps at Rome or Hamburg) from losing his #1 spot.

These, of course, are not the likeliest events, but IMO, they are far from unlikely.

Also, if Nadal does not win everything, and Federer has an exceptionally dismal clay season, Nadal still has a good shot at getting to #1 before the summer...

It should also be noted that with his strong performances over the past few weeks, Nadal has increased his lead over Nole to over 1000 points and narrowed his deficit to Federer to under 1000 points.

Thoughts?
 
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Forum Umpire:, Gaston Gaudio,
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We already have a thread on this.
 

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with that form Roger won't make a lone final on clay
 

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That's a lot of assumptions. I suppose Roger could suddenly retire and leave Nadal at #1 too...
 

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Discussion Starter #5
That's a lot of assumptions. I suppose Roger could suddenly retire and leave Nadal at #1 too...
There being a"lot of assumptions" is admitted in my post.

The point is that, especially in light of recent events, it is not that far a stretch to say that Nadal may have yet another stellar clay season, while Federer may have his worst in a while.

This happens, and Nadal is #1 before grass hits...
 

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Discussion Starter #7
What if Nadal has a poor clay season? :lol:
Certainly possible, but is it more likely than him having a great clay court season?
 

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Another guy showing off his maths skills.
 

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what about roger's Rome run? he lost early there..are you planning to make him repeat that?

moreover roger is playing estoril.. all these maths go to the trash

give us some hypothetical situation that would approach reality :p like.. after the US OPEN or so
 

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Forum Umpire:, Gaston Gaudio,
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1+1 = 0 in this case with the mathematics skills.
 

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Last year Nadal played all 3 Masters Series Events,Barcelona,Roland Garros and after Wimbly Stuttgart.There is a possibility he might skip one of those tourneys and will loose some points
 

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I kind of agree with ackms...I don't really see roger keeping all his points from last year on clay so rafa can have a chance to become n°1 this year. But, of course, everything can happen (rafa can be injured, roger can have his tennis back, rafa can decide to play less tourny than last year on clay...) though I really think rafa is in great shape and will keep all his point and roger will loose some during the clay season...good luck rafa!
 

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Federer atm only has 1 counting optional. He can gain on clay and win new points at Estoril and Halle
 

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get over it... federer is in decline and will not win so many tournaments, but so is nadal.

He is not the same anymore. And I have my doubts that he will win every clay tournament.
 

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Anathemaniac
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Strange mathematics going on here.

Rafa has gazillions of points to defend during the clay season, Roger less and might even well win quite some points in Rome and Estoril - so I'd rather say the clay season is Rafa's to lose, not to win points. Unless Fed completely falters of course but I don't see that happening.
 

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I know all the ranking pros have said this is nearly impossible, but after looking at some numbers, I observe that this isn't the case.

First, let's assume Nadal wins Miami(to play with the #'s).

This results in:

1 Federer 6,600
2 Nadal 6,080
3 Djokovic 4,785

This puts Nadal 520 points away from Federer before the clay season begins. The problem cited in assuming that Nadal will have to bide his time until summer (to get to #1) is that he is at a 500+ deficit with no opportunity to improve. This is partially true. The only place he can improve is at Hamburg. He won everything else, and made the final in Hamburg.

If he wins *everything* (which is only a one match differential from last year) he would add 150 points (and we'll assume Federer defends his clay points, save his title there, for the sake of argument), thus Federer (as a losing finalist in Hamburg) loses 150 points (500-350). This results in:

1 Federer 6,450
2 Nadal 6,230

This results in a 220 point differential. Now, IMO, Federer is going to be getting slapped around a bit this clay season. Even his most rabid fans must realize that clay is still his weakest surface, and when he's losing to Roddick and Fish on hard courts, bad things are in store for clay...right? :shrug:

So, (admittedly there are a lot of assumptions here, but not impossible ones) if Nadal wins this tournament and wins *everything* during the clay season, Federer is one first round loss away (perhaps at Rome or Hamburg) from losing his #1 spot.

These, of course, are not the likeliest events, but IMO, they are far from unlikely.

Also, if Nadal does not win everything, and Federer has an exceptionally dismal clay season, Nadal still has a good shot at getting to #1 before the summer...

It should also be noted that with his strong performances over the past few weeks, Nadal has increased his lead over Nole to over 1000 points and narrowed his deficit to Federer to under 1000 points.

Thoughts?
Do you not realize that Nadal has to win EVERYTHING on clay apart from Hamburg (where he defends ONLY the final) in order to defend his points? On the other hand Novak doesn't defend much during clay court season (except FO semis) and can only gain points...on top of that Nadal has Wimbledon final to defend...no.1? he'll be lucky to stay no.2...Especially if Novak does well in FO and Wimbledon.
 

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Anathemaniac
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Do you not realize that Nadal has to win EVERYTHING on clay apart from Hamburg (where he defends ONLY the final) in order to defend his points?...on top of that he's got Wimbledon final to defend...no.1? he'll be lucky to stay no.2...Especially if Novak does well in FO (semis) and Wimbledon (semis/final).
I'm afraid (;)) you're spot-on here. People seem to be blinded by Roger's recent losses, but the fact is that Rafa is still very far away from grabbing that #1 spot, for the exact reasons you mention.
As for Djoko... yes, he might indeed make a big leap forward if he does well at RG and Wimbly, and it's not too far off to expect that to happen.
 
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