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New No.1 is getting more and more real if Novak doesn't win on Friday.

Scenario :
1 - Novak loses tomorrow, wins Wimby,
a) Medvedev doesn't earn new points in Halle (loses the SF or before) ----- Medvedev needs F in Wimbledon to get to No.1
b) Medvedev wins Halle or loses in the final ----- Medvedev needs SF in Wimbledon to get to No.1
2 - Novak loses tomorrow, gets runner up plate at Wimby, Medvedev gets to No.1 UNLESS:
a) He loses in the QF of Halle or before AND he loses R128 or R64 in Wimbledon.
b) Rafa Wins channel slam
3 - If (Djokovic loses tomorrow AND ((Medvedev reaches Halle F AND Wimby SF) OR Wimby F)), Medvedev is No.1 no matter what Djokovic or Nadal do on grass
 

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New No.1 is getting more and more real if Novak doesn't win on Friday.

Scenario :
1 - Novak loses tomorrow, wins Wimby,
a) Medvedev doesn't earn new points in Halle (loses the SF or before) ----- Medvedev needs F in Wimbledon to get to No.1
b) Medvedev loses in the final of Halle ----- Medvedev needs SF in Wimbledon to get to No.1
2 - Novak loses tomorrow, gets runner up plate at Wimby, Medvedev gets to No.1 UNLESS:
a) He loses in the QF of Halle or before AND he loses R128 or R64 in Wimbledon.
b) Rafa Wins channel slam
3 - If (Djokovic loses tomorrow AND Medvedev reaches (Halle F AND Wimby SF) OR Wimby F), Medvedev is No.1 no matter what Djokovic or Nadal do on grass
Obviously ... everything will be more clear on Friday night
 
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New No.1 is getting more and more real if Novak doesn't win on Friday.

Scenario :
1 - Novak loses tomorrow, wins Wimby,
a) Medvedev doesn't earn new points in Halle (loses the SF or before) ----- Medvedev needs F in Wimbledon to get to No.1
b) Medvedev wins Halle or loses in the final ----- Medvedev needs SF in Wimbledon to get to No.1
2 - Novak loses tomorrow, gets runner up plate at Wimby, Medvedev gets to No.1 UNLESS:
a) He loses in the QF of Halle or before AND he loses R128 or R64 in Wimbledon.
b) Rafa Wins channel slam
3 - If (Djokovic loses tomorrow AND ((Medvedev reaches Halle F AND Wimby SF) OR Wimby F)), Medvedev is No.1 no matter what Djokovic or Nadal do on grass
Good breakdown.

These are the points they are defending in the next couple months:

==========================================================
Novak after RG (assume loss in SF in RG) 10833 (lead of 690 after RG)

Defending: (total 3180)
July: Wimb 2000
Aug: Cincy 1000
Sept: USO 180

Medvedev after RG 10143

Defending: (total 3370)
June: Queens 180
July: Wimb 90
Aug: Canada 600
Cincy 1000
Wash 300
Sep: USO 1200
==========================================================

So yes its pretty difficult for Novak. He needs to go all the way in Wimbledon to not lose a lot of points, which is easier said than done.

Novak should consider playing in both the North American masters and Washington -- will help a lot in getting the #1 back.

Also he should consider playing Queens right now -- that will also help in preserving the #1 ranking.

But the problem is his focus is slams and not #1 anymore -- so I think he will keep playing a light schedule. It will be difficult to sustain #1 in that way.
 

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And after USO, it becomes even more difficult for Medvedev who defends everything, 2000 in Shaghai and Paris and 1500 in Torino for total of 3500. Compared to him, Novak who defends "only" 1580.

Or maybe it is better to divide the Pre Canada and Post Canada, because starting from Cincy the points will be deleted completely (no - 50 % rule)

In this post Canada period, Djokovic defends 2760
Cincy 1000
USO 180
Shanghai 180
Paris 1000
WTF 400

Medvedev Defends 5700
Cincy 1000
USO 1200
Shanghai 1000
Paris 1000
WTF 1500
 
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Discussion Starter · #246 ·
After Wimbledon, Medvedev basically defends around 6500 points. If he wants number 1, he has to go deep in Halle and Wimbledon so that he can get it for a month or two, before all the points start dropping.
 

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But only till October, right?
The points are 'half-frozen' until after the Canadian Open, but that is just for he ongoing weekly rankings.

The YE No. 1 is only for points counted this year. Tsitsipas is in the lead and if he were to win at RG, then he would have a sizable lead and could actually compete for it though I still think Djokovic and Nadal are the top two because of their tendency to win slams.
 

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After Wimbledon, Medvedev basically defends around 6500 points. If he wants number 1, he has to go deep in Halle and Wimbledon so that he can get it for a month or two, before all the points start dropping.
Where he will stumble as even if his shotmaking's decent, he hasn't mastered movement on Grass yet but we shall soon see if his best surface is primarily on Indoor HC.
 

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Wow! I looked at the schedule. Unless Djokovic wins RG and probably Wimbledon, Medvedev can take No. 1 pretty easily. I have been sort of ignoring most of this debate, but with Medvedev getting some real points at RG and if Djokovic loses tomorrow, I really do think Medvedev is virtually guaranteed being No. 1 if he wants it and Djokovic ignores his attempts to get it.

Here is why:
Medvedev can gain 320 points at Queens, 1910 points at Wimbledon, 500 points at Hamburg, and 300 points at Washington. That is 3,030 points versus a max for Djokovic of 1,280 more IF he wins RG and Wimbledon and doesn't play any other tournaments before the Olympics. There is only 690 points separating them now. Heck, Medvedev could skip the Olympics and play Kitzbuel if he were really close and there was less than 250 points difference.

So people have been saying that Medvedev would take No. 1 by Wimbledon which I always doubted because I think Djokovic will be a strong favorite there, but there are so many other points he could win AFTER Wimbledon that I had not seen. That is where he will likely be No. 1, albeit for only a few weeks.

This match tomorrow is even more important since it affects the total slam count, the h2h of Djokovic v Nadal, whether Djokovic retains No. 1 and will virtually assure Djokovic of YE No. 1 unless Tsitsipas beats Nadal or Djokovic in the finals.

Now in Djokovic's mind, I think he is only concerned with beating Nadal and winning the FO and probably the YE No. 1. All these other benefits are merely icing on the cake although Djokovic fans think about it.
 

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Wow! I looked at the schedule. Unless Djokovic wins RG and probably Wimbledon, Medvedev can take No. 1 pretty easily. I have been sort of ignoring most of this debate, but with Medvedev getting some real points at RG and if Djokovic loses tomorrow, I really do think Medvedev is virtually guaranteed being No. 1 if he wants it and Djokovic ignores his attempts to get it.

Here is why:
Medvedev can gain 320 points at Queens, 1910 points at Wimbledon, 500 points at Hamburg, and 300 points at Washington. That is 3,030 points versus a max for Djokovic of 1,280 more IF he wins RG and Wimbledon and doesn't play any other tournaments before the Olympics. There is only 690 points separating them now. Heck, Medvedev could skip the Olympics and play Kitzbuel if he were really close and there was less than 250 points difference.

So people have been saying that Medvedev would take No. 1 by Wimbledon which I always doubted because I think Djokovic will be a strong favorite there, but there are so many other points he could win AFTER Wimbledon that I had not seen. That is where he will likely be No. 1, albeit for only a few weeks.

This match tomorrow is even more important since it affects the total slam count, the h2h of Djokovic v Nadal, whether Djokovic retains No. 1 and will virtually assure Djokovic of YE No. 1 unless Tsitsipas beats Nadal or Djokovic in the finals.

Now in Djokovic's mind, I think he is only concerned with beating Nadal and winning the FO and probably the YE No. 1. All these other benefits are merely icing on the cake although Djokovic fans think about it.
Yes, Medvedev’s strong 2020 finish and Djokovic’s reduced schedule sealed the deal. In fact, Djokovic did very well to postpone this until after Wimbledon. Earlier this year I expected it to happen during the clay season.
 

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Well at this point looks like Tsitsipas is the real #1 contender
Has improved ROS, top spin backhand and mentality. Seems to have stopped whining like a little bitch to his box and his old man which was a real black mark last season. He is serious about improving and has great game for slower surfaces. We'll see how his game holds up on grass, but I'd agree that he has more upside than Zverev and Medvedev right now in terms of cross surface consistency.
 
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Medvedev's chances are now much much lower then only 2 days ago. He will need to reach Wimbledon final or he needs to win Halle and reach Wimbledon semi final ( and hope Novak does not win Wimbledon). Easiest way would be for him to win Wimbledon ( which is not that likely). For me his chances went from 60% to 15% in only few days. And to be honest he does not disserve to be no.1. His performance after AO (apart from RG) are just bad. Where was the motivation in Rotterdam, Miami, Madrid, Rome? He was bad at all those events, and in Rome and Madrid he did not even try his best. Ok he was unlucky in MC, but still. No excuse. Look what Murray did when he had a chance(and Djokovic in 2011, Nadal 2008...). Look at Tsisipas now, he is giving his best for no.1.
 
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