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What is his schedule, and how much is he defending until the end of the clay/grass season? How much must he gain in order to achieve no 1, albeit temporarily?
 

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Medvedev is currently 2295 points behind Djokovic.
According to the ATP ranking breakdown, they will lose the following points in the next two months:
15/3: Djokovic -45, Medvedev -45
5/4: Djokovic -90, Medvedev -90
19/4: Djokovic -360, Medvedev -360
26/4: Djokovic 0, Medvedev -300
10/5: Djokovic -1000, Medvedev -10
17/5: Djokovic -1000, Medvedev -10
So until 17 May, Djokovic loses 1680 points more than Medvedev, which means Medvedev would have to win 620 points more than Djokovic to get to no 1 until then. Always assuming that these Dropoff dates are correct.
 

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Medvedev is currently 2295 points behind Djokovic.
According to the ATP ranking breakdown, they will lose the following points in the next two months:
15/3: Djokovic -45, Medvedev -45
5/4: Djokovic -90, Medvedev -90
19/4: Djokovic -360, Medvedev -360
26/4: Djokovic 0, Medvedev -300
10/5: Djokovic -1000, Medvedev -10
17/5: Djokovic -1000, Medvedev -10
So until 17 May, Djokovic loses 1680 points more than Medvedev, which means Medvedev would have to win 620 points more than Djokovic to get to no 1 until then. Always assuming that these Dropoff dates are correct.
Djokovic should at least play Madrid and win the event to keep those 1000 points to prevent this.
 

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Djokovic should at least play Madrid and win the event to keep those 1000 points to prevent this.
Points are points. If he is healthy enough, then playing Miami is a real opportunity to get separation since he only got 90 points two years ago, it is a good surface for him, Federer and maybe Nadal may not be there. But if he is still injured, then he should wait. The clay court tournaments will be harder for him to win points with Nadal being favored.
 

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First of all, he will need to start beating players like Lajovic on regular basis ..... especially on hard court.
 

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Well with the new ranking protections I have to go and do some serious math to see what's really going on
 

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Well with the new ranking protections I have to go and do some serious math to see what's really going on
You will not be alone. It is basically an invitation to do the math all over again because for guys like us it is so much fun.
 

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If there are no further changes, this dramatically helps Federer for obvious reasons, helps Djokovic and Nadal, and really makes it harder for Medvedev to get to N0. 2 or No. 1 since he had few points to defend in the clay and grass season, but a lot of points to defend at the end of the season.

Assuming no lasting injuries, this probably makes the Year End number 1 to be between Djokovic and Nadal. Again.
 

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If there are no further changes, this dramatically helps Federer for obvious reasons, helps Djokovic and Nadal, and really makes it harder for Medvedev to get to N0. 2 or No. 1 since he had few points to defend in the clay and grass season, but a lot of points to defend at the end of the season.

Assuming no lasting injuries, this probably makes the Year End number 1 to be between Djokovic and Nadal. Again.
As others have said, it also protects players who are on the edge of losing automatic qualification for slams, etc. and hurts those who are close to breaking through.
 

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If there are no further changes, this dramatically helps Federer for obvious reasons, helps Djokovic and Nadal, and really makes it harder for Medvedev to get to N0. 2 or No. 1 since he had few points to defend in the clay and grass season, but a lot of points to defend at the end of the season.

Assuming no lasting injuries, this probably makes the Year End number 1 to be between Djokovic and Nadal. Again.
Players counsil with Nadal and Federer at the front did a great job by helping themselve first and mask it with a tournament revenue increase to pretent they are caring for the lower ranked players. They never did.
 

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I brought great news for Medvedev's campagin for the number one spot ahead, despite his loss today.

The expansion of the 52 week ranking for 2019 and 2020 until August will not have a big impact / disturbance on Medvedev's campagin for the number one spot due to the 50 % rule.

That means: Djokovic will still lose many points because he just defends too many clay points.

MC | 180 (90 secured)
MA | 1000 (500 secured)
RO | 1000 (500 secured)
FO | 1200 (600 secured)

We can see that if Djokovic fails to reach the final or title in at least two of these events, it is going to be Christmas time for Medvedev.

Medvedev's mathematically earliest chance:

Winning Marseille + 205 (45 defending, 23 defending according to new system)
Winning Miami + 910
Winning MC + 640
Winning BC + 200
MADRID | Minimum reaching the SF IF Djokovic wins the tournament (and defends the QF from MC) = + 350 -> Medvedev overtook the Serb by + 100 difference. OR Minimum reaching the QF IF Djokovic did not attend MC or did not reach the QF at MC)
-> IF Djokovic does not win Madrid, Medvedev is the new world number one. Djokovic finishes at 319 weeks at number one in the beginning of May.

That means: DJOKOVIC WILL BE THE NUMBER ONE UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF MAY and until the end of Madrid WITHOUT ANY DOUBT. Two months from now on.

A more conservative realistic approach to Medvedev's number one campaign:

Winning Marseille + 205
Winning Miami + 910
MED | SF MC +/- 0 (defended) +++ DJO | defending QF +/- 0
QF BC - 150 (not defended, but 50 % secured from 2019 final)
SF MA + 350 +++ DJO | SF or worse or not attending -> - 500 drop
QF ROME + 170 +++ DJO | Final reached -> - 400 drop

Medvedev leads the number one ranking after Rome with 180 points more than Djokovic.

A pessimistic approach:

Winning Marseille + 205
Final of Miami + 510
Defending SF of MC -> +/- 0 +++ Djo reaching QF
No BC -> - 150
QF MA -> + 170 +++ 1) Djo losing the final - 400 --- 2) Djo SF or worse - 500 ### 3) Djo winning MA +/- 0
3R ROM -> + 80 +++ 1) Djo losing the final - 400 --- 2) Djo SF or worse - 500 ### 3) Djo reaching the final -400

1) = 590 gap between Djo as #1 and Med as #2 ahead of the French.
2) = 390 gap between Djo as #1 and Med as #2 ahead of the French.
3) = 990 gap between Djo as #1 and Med as #2 ahead of the French.

ROLAND GARROS - French Open
Med: 10 p. (5 defending)
Djo: 1200 p. (600 defending)

Scenario 1) Djokovic winning the French would end all chances for Med and postpone them until Wimbledon.
Scenario 2) Djokovic semis (- 480) -> Med 2) becomes No. 1 without any contribution | Med 1) needs 4th round | Med 3) needs the semifinal .
Scenario 3) Djokovic out in QF or earlier (- 600) -> Med 3) still needs the semifinal.

Best way for Medvedev:
Winning Marseille and Miami now, so that he can relax a bit on clay and let Djokovic fight for his points because he will eventually lose a lot. No one expects Djokovic to win 2 clay events this year at his age. Djokovic needs to get to minimum two clay masters finals or win at least one title secure his spot until the French, otherwise Medvedev could overtake him very realistically after Rome, right before the French.

As we can see Medvedev's chances are skyhigh. He simply needs to take them by performing average on clay. Either after Rome or after the French he could be our new world number one. For Djokovic it would take a huge effort to prevent that from happening and very good results (finals and titles throughout the clay swing including Wimbledon). If he manages to hold his No. 1 spot, we can say goodbye to Medvedev's chances for number one this year. But as I said, I definitely see him getting there after Rome or the French. Too much to ask from Djokovic who is very beatable on clay against many opponents. That means he would end at 320 weeks at number one or 323/324 weeks at number one for now).
 
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I brought great news for Medvedev's campagin for the number one spot ahead, despite his loss today.

The expansion of the 52 week ranking for 2019 and 2020 until August will not have a big impact / disturbance on Medvedev's campagin for the number one spot due to the 50 % rule.

That means: Djokovic will still lose many points because he just defends too many clay points.

MC | 180 (90 secured)
MA | 1000 (500 secured)
RO | 1000 (500 secured)
FO | 1200 (600 secured)

We can see that if Djokovic fails to reach the final or title in at least two of these events, it is going to be Christmas time for Medvedev.

Medvedev's mathematically earliest chance:

Winning Marseille + 205 (45 defending, 23 defending according to new system)
Winning Miami + 910
Winning MC + 640
Winning BC + 200
MADRID | Minimum reaching the SF IF Djokovic wins the tournament (and defends the QF from MC) = + 350 -> Medvedev overtook the Serb by + 100 difference. OR Minimum reaching the QF IF Djokovic did not attend MC or did not reach the QF at MC)
-> IF Djokovic does not win Madrid, Medvedev is the new world number one. Djokovic finishes at 319 weeks at number one in the beginning of May.

That means: DJOKOVIC WILL BE THE NUMBER ONE UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF MAY and until the end of Madrid WITHOUT ANY DOUBT. Two months from now on.

A more conservative realistic approach to Medvedev's number one campaign:

Winning Marseille + 205
Winning Miami + 910
MED | SF MC +/- 0 (defended) +++ DJO | defending QF +/- 0
QF BC - 150 (not defended, but 50 % secured from 2019 final)
SF MA + 350 +++ DJO | SF or worse or not attending -> - 500 drop
QF ROME + 170 +++ DJO | Final reached -> - 400 drop

Medvedev leads the number one ranking after Rome with 180 points more than Djokovic.

A pessimistic approach:

Winning Marseille + 205
Final of Miami + 510
Defending SF of MC -> +/- 0 +++ Djo reaching QF
No BC -> - 150
QF MA -> + 170 +++ 1) Djo losing the final - 400 --- 2) Djo SF or worse - 500 ### 3) Djo winning MA +/- 0
3R ROM -> + 80 +++ 1) Djo losing the final - 400 --- 2) Djo SF or worse - 500 ### 3) Djo reaching the final -400

1) = 590 gap between Djo as #1 and Med as #2 ahead of the French.
2) = 390 gap between Djo as #1 and Med as #2 ahead of the French.
3) = 990 gap between Djo as #1 and Med as #2 ahead of the French.

ROLAND GARROS - French Open
Med: 10 p. (5 defending)
Djo: 1200 p. (600 defending)

Scenario 1) Djokovic winning the French would end all chances for Med and postpone them until Wimbledon.
Scenario 2) Djokovic semis (- 480) -> Med 2) becomes No. 1 without any contribution | Med 1) needs 4th round | Med 3) needs the semifinal .
Scenario 3) Djokovic out in QF or earlier (- 600) -> Med 3) still needs the semifinal.

Best way for Medvedev:
Winning Marseille and Miami now, so that he can relax a bit on clay and let Djokovic fight for his points because he will eventually lose a lot. No one expects Djokovic to win 2 clay events this year at his age. Djokovic needs to get to minimum two clay masters finals or win at least one title secure his spot until the French, otherwise Medvedev could overtake him very realistically after Rome, right before the French.

As we can see Medvedev's chances are skyhigh. He simply needs to take them by performing average on clay. Either after Rome or after the French he could be our new world number one. For Djokovic it would take a huge effort to prevent that from happening and very good results (finals and titles throughout the clay swing including Wimbledon). If he manages to hold his No. 1 spot, we can say goodbye to Medvedev's chances for number one this year. But as I said, I definitely see him getting there after Rome or the French. Too much to ask from Djokovic who is very beatable on clay against many opponents. That means he would end at 320 weeks at number one or 323/324 weeks at number one for now).
I had said on another thread that Medvedev had a chance to take over number one after Wimbledon or the Olympics if he plays well for the reasons you suggest. However, that is almost for sure going to be a brief time since he has a lot more points to protect at the end of the year from Cincinnati on. The new way of doing things helps Djokovic to stay in No.1 position because even if he doesn't play or does poorly in a tournament that he did well in previously, he drops only half points. This ruling assuming it stays as is, hurts Medvedev. Having said that, if he plays like he did in the last 2 sets at the AO final or as he did today, it won't make any difference.
 

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I brought great news for Medvedev's campagin for the number one spot ahead, despite his loss today.

The expansion of the 52 week ranking for 2019 and 2020 until August will not have a big impact / disturbance on Medvedev's campagin for the number one spot due to the 50 % rule.

That means: Djokovic will still lose many points because he just defends too many clay points.

MC | 180 (90 secured)
MA | 1000 (500 secured)
RO | 1000 (500 secured)
FO | 1200 (600 secured)

We can see that if Djokovic fails to reach the final or title in at least two of these events, it is going to be Christmas time for Medvedev.

Medvedev's mathematically earliest chance:

Winning Marseille + 205 (45 defending, 23 defending according to new system)
Winning Miami + 910
Winning MC + 640
Winning BC + 200
MADRID | Minimum reaching the SF IF Djokovic wins the tournament (and defends the QF from MC) = + 350 -> Medvedev overtook the Serb by + 100 difference. OR Minimum reaching the QF IF Djokovic did not attend MC or did not reach the QF at MC)
-> IF Djokovic does not win Madrid, Medvedev is the new world number one. Djokovic finishes at 319 weeks at number one in the beginning of May.

That means: DJOKOVIC WILL BE THE NUMBER ONE UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF MAY and until the end of Madrid WITHOUT ANY DOUBT. Two months from now on.

A more conservative realistic approach to Medvedev's number one campaign:

Winning Marseille + 205
Winning Miami + 910
MED | SF MC +/- 0 (defended) +++ DJO | defending QF +/- 0
QF BC - 150 (not defended, but 50 % secured from 2019 final)
SF MA + 350 +++ DJO | SF or worse or not attending -> - 500 drop
QF ROME + 170 +++ DJO | Final reached -> - 400 drop

Medvedev leads the number one ranking after Rome with 180 points more than Djokovic.

A pessimistic approach:

Winning Marseille + 205
Final of Miami + 510
Defending SF of MC -> +/- 0 +++ Djo reaching QF
No BC -> - 150
QF MA -> + 170 +++ 1) Djo losing the final - 400 --- 2) Djo SF or worse - 500 ### 3) Djo winning MA +/- 0
3R ROM -> + 80 +++ 1) Djo losing the final - 400 --- 2) Djo SF or worse - 500 ### 3) Djo reaching the final -400

1) = 590 gap between Djo as #1 and Med as #2 ahead of the French.
2) = 390 gap between Djo as #1 and Med as #2 ahead of the French.
3) = 990 gap between Djo as #1 and Med as #2 ahead of the French.

ROLAND GARROS - French Open
Med: 10 p. (5 defending)
Djo: 1200 p. (600 defending)

Scenario 1) Djokovic winning the French would end all chances for Med and postpone them until Wimbledon.
Scenario 2) Djokovic semis (- 480) -> Med 2) becomes No. 1 without any contribution | Med 1) needs 4th round | Med 3) needs the semifinal .
Scenario 3) Djokovic out in QF or earlier (- 600) -> Med 3) still needs the semifinal.

Best way for Medvedev:
Winning Marseille and Miami now, so that he can relax a bit on clay and let Djokovic fight for his points because he will eventually lose a lot. No one expects Djokovic to win 2 clay events this year at his age. Djokovic needs to get to minimum two clay masters finals or win at least one title secure his spot until the French, otherwise Medvedev could overtake him very realistically after Rome, right before the French.

As we can see Medvedev's chances are skyhigh. He simply needs to take them by performing average on clay. Either after Rome or after the French he could be our new world number one. For Djokovic it would take a huge effort to prevent that from happening and very good results (finals and titles throughout the clay swing including Wimbledon). If he manages to hold his No. 1 spot, we can say goodbye to Medvedev's chances for number one this year. But as I said, I definitely see him getting there after Rome or the French. Too much to ask from Djokovic who is very beatable on clay against many opponents. That means he would end at 320 weeks at number one or 323/324 weeks at number one for now).
Wow what a huge work, well done

I am just taking it 1 week at a time personally, so we will see
 

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Wow what a huge work, well done

I am just taking it 1 week at a time personally, so we will see
Obviously your approach makes more sense. In my case I was simply curious about it how the bigger picture looks and what we could expect or how it might evolve, looking back in the past as a comparison. Djokovic is in trouble here, regarding his number one position. I would give Med a 70-75 % chance to get the spot during the upcoming summer.

But not looking past the Miami Masters tournament and if he makes some noises there without the Big 3 around (Djo not confirmed yet).
 
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