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Not totally secured, but it's very difficult for Medvedev to surpass Djokovic.

Medvedev is 1800 points behind and he is going to play Moscow, Paris and Turin. That is 2850 points, he has to win everything and Novak don't make more than 1000 points, unlikely, but not impossible.
 

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Not totally secured, but it's very difficult for Medvedev to surpass Djokovic.

Medvedev is 1800 points behind and he is going to play Moscow, Paris and Turin. That is 2850 points, he has to win everything and Novak don't make more than 1000 points, unlikely, but not impossible.
Isn't it 1900?
 

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We need to update the math we did earlier now that Medvedev lost in IW early. Looking though in most likelihood Novak will remain #1 -- not sure whether its 100% certain though.
 

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Remaining tournaments:

Oct 18 - 250 - Kremlin / Antwerp
Oct 25 - 500 (Vienna) / 250 (St. Petersburg)
Nov 1 - 1000 Paris
Nov 7 - 250 Stockholm
Nov 14 - 1500 - ATP Finals

So there are still 3500 total points up for grabs. Medvedev is only 1900 points behind Novak in the race - so he could easily pass Djokovic right?

So far from certain I guess.
 
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Remaining tournaments:

Oct 18 - 250 - Kremlin / Antwerp
Oct 25 - 500 (Vienna) / 250 (St. Petersburg)
Nov 1 - 1000 Paris
Nov 7 - 250 Stockholm
Nov 14 - 1500 - ATP Finals

So there are still 3500 total points up for grabs. Medvedev is only 1900 points behind Novak in the race - so he could easily pass Djokovic right?

So far from certain I guess.
He's 1900 points behind and scheduled to play three events - Moscow, Paris and Turin (2750 possible points).

He'll need to be close to perfect and hope Djokovic doesn't play or do well the rest of the year.
 

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Djokovic is barely playing in 2021 and very likely wont play Paris. Wouldnt surprise me if Medvedev surpasses him
 

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I know that Novak's main goals for this year (and you can probably say overall at this point) were the CYGS and the Olympic gold, but he has still done phenomenally this year. I mean, with only his Slam points he would still be #1 in the race. If he has any motivation for competing, there are 3 very significant records to be achieved in the upcoming 2 events, Paris and the WTF. He can break away from Nadal for most Masters won, tie Federer for the number of WTFs won and break away from Sampras for most YE #1s. On a side note, he can get within 1 title of Nadal's total titles. Those are probably the most important non-Slam (and non-Olympics) records he can chase at this point, so I do hope he gets motivated for them to at least give it his best, whatever that might be right now, but without any pressure. If he does, you'd think he would be able to secure YE #1 quite easily.
 

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Med can still do it but he must vulture crazy

Tsitsipas actually is also mathematically still alive

If Medvedev wins Moscow, Vienna, Paris, and YEC 5-0, he gets 10,290 points

If Djokovic skips the rest of the season, he ends with 9850 points

So the YE #1 is not quite finished yet, but Med would have to vulture crazy and Djokovic not to post for it to happen

Also if Tsitsipas wins IW, Vienna, Paris, YEC, he gets 10,215 points, which is also mathematically possible to get to #1
 

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Why are people so obsessed with it? This year Novak is clearly the best player, winning 3 GS titles, and prob Med is the second. Med won’t try to vulture to be YE #1 since he already won a major, which was the priority of his career. Plus he realistically has a chance to be no.1 if he keeps up his level.
 

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Why are people so obsessed with it? This year Novak is clearly the best player, winning 3 GS titles, and prob Med is the second. Med won’t try to vulture to be YE #1 since he already won a major, which was the priority of his career. Plus he realistically has a chance to be no.1 if he keeps up his level.
Yes Med has a good chance to get to #1 if he wins AO. YE #1 is very tough now
 

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Med can still do it but he must vulture crazy

Tsitsipas actually is also mathematically still alive

If Medvedev wins Moscow, Vienna, Paris, and YEC 5-0, he gets 10,290 points

If Djokovic skips the rest of the season, he ends with 9850 points

So the YE #1 is not quite finished yet, but Med would have to vulture crazy and Djokovic not to post for it to happen

Also if Tsitsipas wins IW, Vienna, Paris, YEC, he gets 10,215 points, which is also mathematically possible to get to #1
Wouldn't it be 9940? 11633-1000(Paris)-400(WTF)-180(Shanghai)-90(Vienna)-23(IW)=9940 Where will he lose additional 90 points?


However, I know you are counting the "real" #1 as the YE #1, but for the official #1 (race) he has 8370, Medvedev has 6470, Tsitsi 5560 (max 6470 after IW) and Zverev 5005 (max 5915 after IW).
 

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Wouldn't it be 9940? 11633-1000(Paris)-400(WTF)-180(Shanghai)-90(Vienna)-23(IW)=9940 Where will he lose additional 90 points?


However, I know you are counting the "real" #1 as the YE #1, but for the official #1 (race) he has 8370, Medvedev has 6470, Tsitsi 5560 (max 6470 after IW) and Zverev 5005 (max 5915 after IW).
Yes 9940 is correct, I subtracted Vienna 90 twice

Also correct is that the race is closer. But what a funny thing it would be if Tsitsipas gets the race #1 with 0 slams!
 

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Yes 9940 is correct, I subtracted Vienna 90 twice

Also correct is that the race is closer. But what a funny thing it would be if Tsitsipas gets the race #1 with 0 slams!
To add to that, Zverev should also be taken into consideration if he wins IW. He is scheduled to play both Vienna and Stockholm, on top of Paris and WTF. Tsitsi-Zverev potential SF in IW could decide who remains in the race for YE #1 (tho Zverev would probably need Novak to win basically no points and for Danil to do poorly for the rest of the year.)
 

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To add to that, Zverev should also be taken into consideration if he wins IW. He is scheduled to play both Vienna and Stockholm, on top of Paris and WTF. Tsitsi-Zverev potential SF in IW could decide who remains in the race for YE #1 (tho Zverev would probably need Novak to win basically no points and for Danil to do poorly for the rest of the year.)
Ah I had not thought of Zverev. I may need to do some more maths
 

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Hilarious. Medvedvev, Tstsipas, and Zverev are STILL in the running.

At least, Diego Schwartzman has been eliminated.
 
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