Mens Tennis Forums banner
1 - 20 of 39 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
14,642 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
This event now is the most open it's ever been. No Contador, No Leipheimer and no Kloden. No Vinoukourov. No anyone? So who would the bookies install as favourites?

Valverde? I don't think his spot in the tour is safe either with operation puerto being re-opened. So who deserves the favourite honour? Wheel sucking Cadel?

So let's guess the odds and see how close we were when the odds come out in about a months time.

Evans - $4.50
Valverde - $5
F Schleck - $8
Sastre - $10
Menchov - $10
A Schleck - $10
Moreau - $12
Rogers - $12
Cunego - $12
Simoni - $12
Soler - $15
Casar - $15
Perero - $20
Kirchen - $20
Dekker - $20
Danielson - $50
Gerdemenn - $50
Hincapie - $60

Seriously, if you were a bookie, how the hell would you judge this? Everyone up to Dekker can win this thing. Evans is clearly not a favourite IMO but they will put him as favourite. What price would you put the first 15 riders who can clearly win this? You'd think that CSC and High Road will try and control the race - both teams will have very strong teams but if they don't, someone like Soler can run away with it.

Good luck to the bookies.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
14,642 Posts
Discussion Starter · #2 ·
Here they are

Cadel Evans 3.00

Denis Menchov 7.00

Alejandro Valverde Belmonte 8.00

Carlos Sastre Candil 9.00

Michael Rogers 16.00

Damiano Cunego 17.00

Andy Schleck 21.00

Oscar Pereiro Sio 26.00

Mauricio Soler 26.00

Christophe Moreau 31.00

Yaroslav Popovych 31.00

José Angel Gomez Marchante 31.00

Thomas Dekker 31.00

Vladimir Karpets 31.00

Kim Kirchen 36.00

Haimar Zubeldia Aguirre 36.00

Riccardo Ricco 36.00

Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau 51.00

Frank Schleck 51.00

Linus Gerdemann 51.00

Samuel Sanchez 67.00

George Hincapie 81.00

Juan Manuel Garate 101.00

Stijn Devolder 101.00

Sandy Casar 101.00

Sylvain Chavanel 151.00

Thomas Voeckler 151.00
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
14,642 Posts
Discussion Starter · #4 ·
This event is more open than the odds suggest. Wheel sucker Cadel that short? Dekker is good odds too.

Don't forget a few things that is happening.

Operation Puerto has been re-opened - Valverde is linked to it.

Rogers is among the T-Mobile 2006 Tour de France team of accusations that he doped.

Might be worth putting something small on some of these long shots because if it goes the way I don't want it to, Rogers and Valverde won't be riding this year and that means odds for Sastre, Menchov and Schleck will come right in.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,986 Posts
Betting on Evans at 3.00 is a major mistake imo. First of all, he is not that good, period. Second of all, there could be a big surprise and Astana could get into to TdF, somehow... And then they will come with Contador, Levi and Klodi. I will believe that they won't start if they won't be there at the prologue.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
14,642 Posts
Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Yep

Crazy people will bet on Evans just like crazy people bet on Vino last year for arguments sake.

Evans is the most over-rated cyclist there is - I think he is over-rated by the Australian Media bigtime.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
11,323 Posts
Andy Schleck seems like a good bet but is he going to ride the Giro this year?

Honestly I feel Menchov is going to win.

Evans is good but he isn't that good in the mountains with anyone who can accelerate.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
34,157 Posts
Betting on Evans at 3.00 is a major mistake imo. First of all, he is not that good, period. Second of all, there could be a big surprise and Astana could get into to TdF, somehow... And then they will come with Contador, Levi and Klodi. I will believe that they won't start if they won't be there at the prologue.
Levi is a useless piece of shit. Forget about him.
 
G

·
Evans is so much better then anyone else in the TT's now that Levi is out.

It depends how much he can limit the damage in the mountains because he has minutes over the rest of the riders on the TT.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
14,642 Posts
Discussion Starter · #16 ·
Hincapie is way under the odds @ 60 imo.
Hincapie will be helping Rogers if Rogers rides the tour and it's found out he didn't dope with the rest of the T-Mobile squad in the 06 tour.

Up to 6 riders in the T-Mobile 2006 squad travelled to Freiberg University for blood transfusions a day before the tour. Sinkewitz travelled alone and then others went too.

The team was

Sinkewitz
Guerrini
Rogers
Mazzoleni
Kloden
Gonchar
Kessler

Sinkewitz has admitted to doping. Mazzoleni and Kessler doped at Astana so it's more than likely they were part of the T-Mobile doping ring. Gonchar had massive results in the Time Trials - safe to say he doped too. That leaves Rogers and Guerini. Rogers rode his best tour ever and finished in the top 10 and Guerini was with the team for years with Ullrich. Kloden also.

My guess is that as Rogers was a newcomer to the team, he didn't know what was going on - or he did but decided not to take part.

Also, I know a good outsider but I don't know if he's riding or not. Luis Leon Sanchez - awesome climber. Won me a lot of money last night winning the last stage of Paris-Nice.

I'm liking the odds of Cunego @ 17 aswell. Very nice.

Don't forget also that they have re-opened operation puerto. So the chances of Valverde riding the tour could be diminished too as he is linked to it. He sucks anyway when the spotlight is on him but still, take that into considerations.

If Rogers did dope in 2006, it will come out before the tour and thus Kirchen will be High Road's leader.

If it is proven Valverde was linked with Operation Puerto, it again will come out before the tour.

I have question marks over both those riders starting this years race.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
14,642 Posts
Discussion Starter · #18 ·
Evans is so much better then anyone else in the TT's now that Levi is out.

It depends how much he can limit the damage in the mountains because he has minutes over the rest of the riders on the TT.
Yep you're right there but as you say, $3 is too short.

All it takes is someone like Soler to burst away in one stage. He looked awesome last year and was always up there.

Here is the makeup of this years tour.

10 flat stages,
5 mountain stages,
4 medium mountain stages,
2 individual time-trial stages.

Distinctive aspects of the race

4 mountain finishes,
2 rest days,
82 kilometres of individual time-trials,
19 Category 1, Category 2 and highest level passes will be climbed.

This tour is handmade for someone like Cunego or Shleck IMO and if Valverde does not ride the tour, Luis Leon Sanchez will take the reigns at Caisse-Depargne and he is a solid mountain rider.

Evans doesn't have a lot of TTkm up his sleeve.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
34,157 Posts
Bolar, you are a not a stupid man, so don't pretend that there are any cyclists around who haven't doped before.

Doping in cycling is the equivalent of lacing up your boots in any other sport.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
14,642 Posts
Discussion Starter · #20 ·
FYI, I think this is the team that High Road will bring in to help Rogers.

Michael Rogers - Leader
Kim Kirchen
Linus Gerdemenn
George Hincapie
Thomas Lokvist
Marcus Burghardt

THe other 3 will go to sprinters.
 
1 - 20 of 39 Posts
Top