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Discussion Starter #1
As we all know, the last nine slams have all been won by players in their 30s. This has never happened before in the Open Era.

When Federer won Wimbledon in 2012 at the age of 30 years and 11 months, he was the 11th-oldest slam winner, but only two of the players above him had won slams after 1983. When he won the Australian Open last year, Federer became the fourth-oldest GS winner, behind Ken Rosewall (who won the 1970 US Open aged 35 years, 10 months and 11 days, and the Australian Open in 1971 and 1972 at two months over 36 and 37, respectively).

Of the 14 players who have won slams in their 30s, three of them have each won four (Laver, Rosewall and Federer), two of those three having won consecutive slams in their 30s (Laver 4, Rosewall 2), and those two have now been joined by Djokovic, who is the third-oldest USO champion, behind Wawrinka and Rosewall. Tellingly, the last three winners of the USO have all been 31 (Wawrinka, Nadal and Djokovic), whereas before 2016 only four players had won it in their 30s (Laver 1969, Rosewall 1970, Connors 1982 and 1983, Sampras 2002).

Federer and Nadal won alternate slams last year and the first half of this year, and now Djokovic has won two in a row. With Djokovic and Nadal surely the favourites to win the AO and FO, respectively, will this run of 30-something winners continue through next year, or will we at last see a younger GS champion in 2019? (If Federer were to win the AO next January, he would, of course, become the oldest GS winner in the Open Era.)
 

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Let us lower our expectations for 2019, a new GS finalist under 30 y.o. would be enough (joining Nishi, Raonic,Thiem), because if Stanimal and Murray return as contenders by the end of 2019, 30+ y.o. Stan, Murray, Delpo, Cilic, Nishikori & co. would still be the strong favourites in 2020 for the spot in the finals, along with Fedalovic, also Raonic will be 29, Dimitrov 28/29, Goffin 29.
 

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you should compare what is happening in ATP with WTA . other than the big 3 there is no real competition in the tour . Potro , Cilic , Zeverv and all youngsters are far from consistency .
after turning 31 serena won 10 grand slams title so far !!!
you should expect Dull and Djoker to win at least half of grand slam titles in the next three years . if not all of it!!
 

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Discussion Starter #4
You should compare what is happening in ATP with WTA. Other than the big 3 there is no real competition in the tour. Potro, Cilic, Zeverv and all youngsters are far from consistency.
After turning 31 Serena won 10 grand slams title so far!!!
You should expect Dull and Djoker to win at least half of grand slam titles in the next three years. If not all of it!!
Well, Serena was beaten by a 20-year-old!

However, no male player aged 30+ has won more than four slams in the Open Era. On the other hand, if Djokovic maintains or even improves his form, he seems certain to win more slams in the next couple of years.

But things can change, and today's certainties may no longer be tomorrow's certainties.
 

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Thiem was the best player at this US Open.
Nadal-Thiem was the highest level of the tournament, and since you can't say a player with a patella tendon contusion is the best player in a tournament then it must be Thiem.
 

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you should compare what is happening in ATP with WTA . other than the big 3 there is no real competition in the tour . Potro , Cilic , Zeverv and all youngsters are far from consistency .
after turning 31 serena won 10 grand slams title so far !!!
you should expect Dull and Djoker to win at least half of grand slam titles in the next three years . if not all of it!!
The unfortunate thing is that Serena was playing nowhere near her peak during 2014-2016 but was challenged less than in her peak. The WTA has more depth further down the rankings than ever but the strength at the top is nowhere near what it was in the 00s. Her reaching a slam final at Wimbledon with the form she was in was a joke.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
Well, some of the currently best/most dominant athletes in the world are similar age - LeBron is 33, Cristiano Ronaldo is also 33, etc, not sure why only in tennis that comes as shocking.
Tennis is not a team sport, so to be the best/most dominant you have to do it by yourself. Football (soccer), for example, isn't dominated by players in their 30s, although some of the best players continue to perform excellently at that age. With regard to Ronaldo, he has certainly had great success in his 30s, having adapted his game as he's got older, but is he the player he was a few years ago? Of course, I realise the same question could be asked about any of the Big 3, but a team player isn't out there on his own, so it's hard to compare them.
 

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Tennis is not a team sport, so to be the best/most dominant you have to do it by yourself. Football (soccer), for example, isn't dominated by players in their 30s, although some of the best players continue to perform excellently at that age. With regard to Ronaldo, he has certainly had great success in his 30s, having adapted his game as he's got older, but is he the player he was a few years ago? Of course, I realise the same question could be asked about any of the Big 3, but a team player isn't out there on his own, so it's hard to compare them.
True, however both football and basketball etc. are far more physical/contact sports, in tennis for example you don't have to worry the opponent will elbow you or try to break your leg.
 

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Discussion Starter #13 (Edited)
True, however both football and basketball etc. are far more physical/contact sports, in tennis for example you don't have to worry the opponent will elbow you or try to break your leg.
That's also true, but in a sport where there have been many GS champions in their early 20s, some even in their teens, and where players have statistically peaked in their mid-20s, why haven't we had one GS winner in his 20s for over two years? Best-of-5-set matches were not an obstacle to young players in the past, so have conditions changed to such an extent that only older players can now go the distance? Nadal won his first slam at 19, Djokovic and del Potro were both 20-year-old slam winners in 2008 and 2009, respectively, and Murray and Cilic were 25 when they won the US Open.

Naturally, the situation could change next year, but it still seems surprising that under-30-year-olds have not done better at slam-level in the last couple of years.
 

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LeBron quit playing defense last season....a complete and utter slacker at the defensive end.
That's a good example of how you can survive longer in a team sport.
Although his career-worst defense also resulted in Cleveland having the worst defense in the NBA, so there was a price to pay - but it didn't matter ultimately, because top seed Toronto were not made for the playoffs, so Cleveland advanced anyway (and lost to Golden State, as they were destined to regardless of defensive performance).
Nadal or Djokovic can't suddenly stop playing defense, or they fall out of the top 10.
EDIT: In fact even if Federer stopped playing defense he'd fall out of contention, even though he's more reliant on his serve.
 

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True, however both football and basketball etc. are far more physical/contact sports, in tennis for example you don't have to worry the opponent will elbow you or try to break your leg.
Well, contact in basketball is minimal as well.

In football it isn't, but Ronaldo is a freak of nature athletically. One in a million would be putting it mildly, and as the poster above said, he changed his game and is more of a poacher now and not really as good as he was at his peak. He also played considerably fewer matches last season. In tennis you don't play in a team so it's harder to just change your game radically when you're one person. And playing less games is not easy because of lack of rhythm. Federer is an exception, not the rule.

That's why it used to be normal for players in their mid and late 30s to win slams decades ago and then the age started dropping as tennis became more physical. It does seem that since the late 2000s the age started getting higher again. Sampras was seen as an old guy at 29 and Agassi at 34 was seen as something unique. Also the New Balls generation all were kinda done in their late 20s or even earlier. Now you have Federer basically doing what Agassi did or more at 36/37. Djokovic and Nadal easily winning slams in their 30s, etc. Not only that but the more "human" players as well (Isner, del Potro, Feliciano Lopez, Ferrer, Anderson, Wawrinka, etc.)

I think it's also a psychological factor. They see other players succeeding in their 30's so they think they can do it as well.
 

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Well, some of the currently best/most dominant athletes in the world are similar age - LeBron is 33, Cristiano Ronaldo is also 33, etc, not sure why only in tennis that comes as shocking.
That's true. Many sports "suffer" from this phenomena. Men's tennis is a bit of extreme case, but only because we have a bunch of extraordinary talents, whose overwhelming superiority to the rest makes is possible for them to dominate despite their physical decline. It will catch up eventually.

Due to scientific and social achievements life expectancy increases and all life stages are prolonged. Today what's considered the period of "youth" is longer than ever. Better technology, better training, better diets etc. allow ageing athletes to preserve their fitness. And they actually started realizing they don't have to call it a career at a certain age. So instead of saying "Yep, it's time", they fight to stay afloat by making necessary adjustments to compensate for the deficits. There's no way Sampras would have quit today at 31.
On top of that (and more to the question where are the young guns who used to push out all the veterans), childhood lasts longer, too, which somewhat slows down forming of mental maturity. There's no sense of urgency in late teens.

When you take all of that into account, perhaps what's happening is not that shocking after all.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
When you take all of that into account, perhaps what's happening is not that shocking after all.
You make good points, although I don't regard it as "shocking" – surprising, yes, and unprecedented. A measure of how much things have changed is that Federer was considered a late bloomer (Sampras, like Nadal, won his first slam at 19). I well remember watching Boris Becker win his first Wimbledon title at the age of 17, which really makes me feel my age – although 57 is nothing these days. :D
 

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but young players are dominating Masters since 2017. that alone should give a hope to them.
Not sure what do you mean by this. Only Zverev won 3 Masters and Sock 1, hardly a domination. There were first time Masters winners in Dimitrov (27), Del Potro (29) and Izner (33). The rest (9) are won by Big 3. So it is still 9:7 in master titles for Big 3 since 2017. If Murray recaptures his form, it hardly can be different.
 
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