Mens Tennis Forums banner

1 - 20 of 59 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
54 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Starting with this year's AO, Djokovic will have about 24 chances to win a grand slam until he reaches the age that Federer was at the 2019 Wimbledon where he was 1 point away from winning the championship. (Granted, I am not counting the 2 1/2 months from Djokovic's BD in May to Federer's August BD). That is a lot.

Another way of looking at his age is that Djokovic has about 3 1/2 years or 14 slams to reach a similar age to Federer after which Federer won 3 slams at AO and WO.

If his commitment and health hold (legs mainly, I think), then his chance of making 20 and more slam wins is very high.

I think the slam order of which he can compete to the oldest age in order of likelihood is: Wimbledon (less running, less hard on legs, younger generation has not figured grass out), AO (speed, confidence), USO (much better now that the speed of court is faster), and FO (Nadal, long and arduous points).

Thoughts?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
504 Posts
Doesn't matter, Nadal will have won at least 4 more Roland Garros' by then. So expect Novak to be chasing 25+ slams.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
54 Posts
Discussion Starter #3
Doesn't matter, Nadal will have won at least 4 more Roland Garros' by then. So expect Novak to be chasing 25+ slams.
Maybe so, but if Djokovic is close in slam total, he will be the GOAT. If Nadal only has RG in the future (very likely with US Open now faster), Nadal will be just the clay GOAT, not the overall GOAT, since 70% of his ATP wins are on clay and 65% of his slams are on clay and those percentages are only likely to go up highlighting that he has trouble on grass and hard court.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
58 Posts
Maybe so, but if Djokovic is close in slam total, he will be the GOAT. If Nadal only has RG in the future (very likely with US Open now faster), Nadal will be just the clay GOAT, not the overall GOAT, since 70% of his ATP wins are on clay and 65% of his slams are on clay and those percentages are only likely to go up highlighting that he has trouble on grass and hard court.
Wrong argument, it doesn't matter how his wins are distributed, it just means he is not as good on other surfaces but out of this world good on clay, much better on clay than anyone else has been on any other surface, so on average it evens out. I mean, FFS, one could argue Djokovic is a HC GOAT, not overall GOAT, since 65% of his slams are on Hard, yet we are not saying ridiculous stuff like this.
The argument would be lack of WTF or weeks at 1 for example.
And I think Djokovic needs to equal GS count to be considered GOAT, 1 less IMO is not enough, GOAT is a player that is undoubtedly better than the rest, only being on par in GS count and because he beats Nadal (and Federer) in many other categories, then he is GOAT.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
54 Posts
Discussion Starter #5
Well, I appreciate you agreeing that Djokovic beats Federer and Nadal in other categories like YE #1, weeks at #1, double golden slam, and so on.

But let me ask you this? If Nadal had 21 slams and they were all at RG, do you really think that he would be consider GOAT if Federer and Djokovic had 20 that were on all surfaces. Look, I like Nadal. He would be an all-time great even if he had never won a single title at RG. His resume is that good. But he still has major holes in his resume.

Of course, there is no gigantic trophy that says GOAT for tennis, so we can all continue to argue this. But I predict 20 years from now, if the slam title is close that Nadal's number will be discounted because of the high percentage of wins at clay on both slams and Masters 1000s and he will not be considered the GOAT by most people.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,020 Posts
Djokovic doesn't need the slam record, he only needs to shorten the distance, he will be superior to Fedal in everything else.

Nonetheless, they will all finish with somewhat similar numbers so they will all be considered GOAT by many people.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
17,890 Posts
I am not this optimistic as OP.
While his slam nemezis Wawrinka declined in recent months and cannot even reach QFs, he developed matchup issues vs Medvedev and Thiem.
Normally, both players are not that balanced as Djokovic on both wings, but having his BH declined quite a bit and not being the baseline juggernaut he was till 2016 will cost him should he encounter these guys at the later stages in a slam (QF/SF). I don't expect to dominate these matchups anymore, but to have decisive wins when it matters.
In finals I would still give the edge to Novak. And he can forget clay completely, unless he would be able to regain at least 60% more pace on his FH on the surface.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
89 Posts
Maybe so, but if Djokovic is close in slam total, he will be the GOAT. If Nadal only has RG in the future (very likely with US Open now faster), Nadal will be just the clay GOAT, not the overall GOAT, since 70% of his ATP wins are on clay and 65% of his slams are on clay and those percentages are only likely to go up highlighting that he has trouble on grass and hard court.
No, grand slam spread doesn't matter
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,313 Posts
Starting with this year's AO, Djokovic will have about 24 chances to win a grand slam until he reaches the age that Federer was at the 2019 Wimbledon where he was 1 point away from winning the championship. (Granted, I am not counting the 2 1/2 months from Djokovic's BD in May to Federer's August BD). That is a lot.

Another way of looking at his age is that Djokovic has about 3 1/2 years or 14 slams to reach a similar age to Federer after which Federer won 3 slams at AO and WO.

If his commitment and health hold (legs mainly, I think), then his chance of making 20 and more slam wins is very high.

I think the slam order of which he can compete to the oldest age in order of likelihood is: Wimbledon (less running, less hard on legs, younger generation has not figured grass out), AO (speed, confidence), USO (much better now that the speed of court is faster), and FO (Nadal, long and arduous points).

Thoughts?
the math seems...questionable
Federer was 37 (but ok let’s call it 38), Djokovic will be that age after the 2025 australian open
that’s more like 16-17 chances
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,342 Posts
the math seems...questionable
Federer was 37 (but ok let’s call it 38), Djokovic will be that age after the 2025 australian open
that’s more like 16-17 chances
For me too.

Not only because it is impossible to project the career of one player on another, he does not share the same career events (injuries, confidence, motivation) and private, but above all because it is difficult to plan in the long term over more than one season, at best the next 4 GS.

And if Djokovic doesn't win any slams in 2021, will that mean he won't win any more?

So, 24 or 16-17 chances .. anything is allowed once certain perceptible limits have been exceeded.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,987 Posts
20 won't be the benchmark soon. Nadal will probably win at least 2-3 more GS tournaments. Given his RG dominance it's hard to foresee when he will stop winning slams. I also agree with @Djoker regarding future (and present) matches against Thiem and Medved. It will be harder and harder for Djoko on HC. It's grass when old dogs are more ahead and his chance for victory at Wimby may be highest of all slams in his old days (given his serve improvement).
 

·
justice for all
Joined
·
16,221 Posts
He’s still the man to beat at the AO and it’s his „home soil”. So the upcoming slam in Melbourne will be absolutely crucial in terms of his slam record campaign. If he holds his ground then it will still look doable but if he loses and with RG around the corner they will start looking bleak.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
54 Posts
Discussion Starter #14
Obviously, I am saying that since Federer was competitive until he was 38 given the results at WO 2019, Djokovic may be competitive until a similar age. He takes very good care of himself, his drive to have more accomplishments than Federer and Nadal is there, and while Nadal will likely win 1-3 more FOs, I don't think he will win any another slam with the USO going to a faster court.

Of course, as you get older, your body is more prone to injury, your drive may drop, and the younger players are getting better. All I am saying is that there are a lot of opportunities if he wants to take them and he remains healthy.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,038 Posts
Djoko's already scanty weapons are getting noticeably blunter with each season that passes. There is absolutely nothing to indicate that he could remain sharp and deadly as Federer has close to his forties, except maybe on grass.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Budadiii

·
Registered
Joined
·
54 Posts
Discussion Starter #16
Djoko's already scanty weapons are getting noticeably blunter with each season that passes. There is absolutely nothing to indicate that he could remain sharp and deadly as Federer has close to his forties, except maybe on grass.
I suppose that is why he won 30 something matches in a row (not counting the DQ) including many against top 10 players. I guess I am even more impressed with him for his ability to win so much since he has such 'scanty weapons."
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
911 Posts
Like Nadal, Djokovic’s primary assets are court coverage and defense. Not that he doesn’t have offensive weapons. Of course, he does, but he wins primarily because people just can’t hit through him when he is in “lockdown” mode.

However, as he gets older he will find that is an increasingly arduous way to win. Sooner or later, he will either get physically worn out (and/or injured), or just decide it’s way too much work to play that way. I suspect that will happen in the next couple of years, so I’d bet his GS chances are a lot more limited than the OP suggests.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,750 Posts
Starting with this year's AO, Djokovic will have about 24 chances to win a grand slam until he reaches the age that Federer was at the 2019 Wimbledon where he was 1 point away from winning the championship. (Granted, I am not counting the 2 1/2 months from Djokovic's BD in May to Federer's August BD). That is a lot.

Another way of looking at his age is that Djokovic has about 3 1/2 years or 14 slams to reach a similar age to Federer after which Federer won 3 slams at AO and WO.

If his commitment and health hold (legs mainly, I think), then his chance of making 20 and more slam wins is very high.

I think the slam order of which he can compete to the oldest age in order of likelihood is: Wimbledon (less running, less hard on legs, younger generation has not figured grass out), AO (speed, confidence), USO (much better now that the speed of court is faster), and FO (Nadal, long and arduous points).

Thoughts?
I feel like you already did this very same thread just recently.

You're an optimistic Djokovic fan I will give you that :)

As I mentioned in that other thread, there are now several younger players who can really threaten Novak on hard and clay and even if he doesn't lose to any specific one of them, there are enough now that it will make it harder to skate through a draw to the finals unscathed.

I also don't think Novak has the same ability to change up his game as much as Federer and even Nadal as well on the offensive end of things so I think he may find it harder to compensate for his eventual decline in movement and stamina which I would argue we also saw this year as well though it was somewhat masked by the shorter season.

Good luck to him and his fans all the same...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
54 Posts
Discussion Starter #19
Like Nadal, Djokovic’s primary assets are court coverage and defense. Not that he doesn’t have offensive weapons. Of course, he does, but he wins primarily because people just can’t hit through him when he is in “lockdown” mode.

However, as he gets older he will find that is an increasingly arduous way to win. Sooner or later, he will either get physically worn out (and/or injured), or just decide it’s way too much work to play that way. I suspect that will happen in the next couple of years, so I’d bet his GS chances are a lot more limited than the OP suggests.
You may be right and of course the best opportunities for Djokovic are in the next 3 years. However, he is already experimenting with reinventing himself albeit with varied success. Federer did that in the later part of his career.

I guess as a Djokovic supporter, I have just not been impressed with the upcoming yet very talented younger players with respect to their playing in slams. It may be their consistency, or ability to withstand the ebb and Flo in Bof5 matches. It seems that the mental fortitude of the Big 3 have blocked others who are nearly as talented or equal in talent to an aging Big 3. The last two pre-COVID-19 slams went 5 sets with a younger player losing to the old guard. We will see if they are really contenders or pretenders in the next two years, I think.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
11,505 Posts
I suppose that is why he won 30 something matches in a row (not counting the DQ) including many against top 10 players. I guess I am even more impressed with him for his ability to win so much since he has such 'scanty weapons."
The difference between the 30 something from 2020 to the 40 something in 2011 is pretty large.

He could have easily lost a bunch of those matches he was playing , including the AO 2020. He is still mentally pretty strong , but all it takes is one confident opponent and he can lose.

He is not as invincible as he used to be. So while yes he has some time before Federer's WB 2019 match point... he also has to keep up his physicality and baseline game. Which will not be easy, even if he is blessed genetically and does all the Yoga , stretching dietary restrictions , etc.

Plus as @Djoker mentioned his backhand is not the weapon it once was. So that will make his life that much harder.

It would make sense for Djokovic to break 20 , but at the same time he is now having to contend with Medvedev, Thiem, Tsitsipas , Zverev who are starting to make the later rounds and be more confident.
 
1 - 20 of 59 Posts
Top