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Discussion Starter #1
For all the people bitching about Federer’s cakewalk draw, you should be grateful for it because it is setting him up for the same Finals failures that he had in 2014/15. The reason Federer beat Nadal in the 2017 Aus Final was because he was battle hardened by his incredibly difficult draw. Whereas Federer wilted at the first sign of adversity in the 3 slam finals he played in 14 and 15.

The same thing will happen again this year. Federer will sleepwalk to the final (much as he did today for the last two sets) where he will meet his first resistance of the tournament from either Nole or Nadal, and he will crumble like a cheap deck of cards, likely blowing 15 or so break points in the process.

If Roger had played some decent opposition on the way to the final like cilic or Delpo (or even joker in the semi, where he would have a WAY bigger chance of beating him) then roger would be much more likely to win the final.

Brace yourself Fed Fans because the writing is on the wall.
 

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OP is a sensible Fedfan, but let me call a reverse-jinx attempt here..>:)

On a serious note, I also believe in the 'battle-tested' theory, but I don't think it's a written rule for how the late Slam rounds play out..

Granted, we are looking a little ahead, but as things stand right now, Delpotro is definitely out of contention for the title with this ongoing Simon slugfest. Even if he miraculously survives the next two rounds he will get routined in the Final.

The biggest challenge for Federer would be the step-up from the ROS/ground-game of Anderson/Isner/Raonic to Novak Djokovic's.

Nadal won't be easy picking if he gets there, but Nole definitely got the better tools to rattle Federer, and is currently in much better mental place as far as the match-up goes.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
OP is a sensible Fedfan, but let me call a reverse-jinx attempt here../images/MensTennisForums_2015/smilies/tango_face_devil.png

On a serious note, I also believe in the 'battle-tested' theory, but I don't think it's a written rule for how the late Slam rounds play out..

Granted, we are looking a little ahead, but as things stand right now, Delpotro is definitely out of contention for the title with this ongoing Simon slugfest. Even if he miraculously survives the next two rounds he will get routined in the Final.

The biggest challenge for Federer would be the step-up from the ROS/ground-game of Anderson/Raonic to Novak Djokovic's.

Nadal won't be easy picking if he gets there, but Nole definitely got the better tools to rattle Federer, and is currently in much better mental place as far as the match-up goes.
No reverse jinx attempt here, I don’t believe in such nonsense. I sincerely believe that if Fed had a cakewalk draw in 2017 Australia, Nadal would have prevailed in that final. The only reason Fed found that inner strength when down a break in fifth set was because of all the other matches he had clutched out and top guys he had already beaten that tournament.
 

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Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The first week in Wimbledon has shown us, how unpredictable tennis can be. Nobody is guaranteed to reach the final (even though Federer clearly has the best chances to do so), because the matches must be played first.
 

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There are some things you are failing to take into calculation:

1) Djokovic isn't anywhere near his 2014/2015 level.

2) Nadal really isn't at a level currently to challenge Federer on grass.

3) A potential Djoker/Nadal SF could be a very physical 5-setter, leaving the victor fatigued, giving Federer a slight advantage.

4) Both players don't have the same level of endurance as they did when they were actually beating Federer on this surface.

5) This is not the same Federer from 14/15. That Federer was still struggling against Nadal. How the "new" Federer matches up against Djoker is an unknown, it's been more than 2 years since they last met.

I mean, why aren't you applying this same logic to Nadal and Djoker for their SF match? Both players will have easy peasy runs to that game (I don't consider a tired Delpo on grass as a tough match for Nadal). Is that going to make them play worse than if they had a tougher run? I don't think so. The advantage for having an easier run is that you'll have fresher legs... confidence (or a lack of it) will come from the actual match. For all we know Djoker could blitz Nadal in straights but play a little bit off in the final, he's not immune to having an off-day like Federer did. Plus, 14/15 Djoker was simply the better player during that period. Federer could have beaten anyone except him. Does it look like that this year? I wouldn't have thought so.

Of course, this is using the assumption that Djoker or Nadal will get to Fed in the first place, or Fed will make the final. Upsets happen, these three players are still human and are not at their absolute peaks.
 

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eh...we will see. I certainly would not mind seeing either Nole or Nadal. Obviously it appears chances of beating Nadal would be slightly higher on this surface than Djokovic but he has high stakes to play for with either opponent. Nadal is a chance to erase 2008 for good. Djokovic is even higher stakes. Hard to call Fed the king of grass if he loses 3 out of 4 to the same guy. If Fed beats Djokovic we can claim that age took away Fed's prime when he was playing Novak in his prime.If Djoker beats Fed, it may be time to claim Djokovic as BOAT
 

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As of now, from what I've seen so far this tournament, Roger is still the favorite. His biggest obstacle will be Djokovic rather than Nadal, mainly due to Djokovic's ROS. I haven't been that impressed with Nadal's ROS so far, Djokovic's ROS OTOH has been pretty good. Key to beat Roger here is being able to break down his serve. And I think Djokovic is probably the only guy remaining in the draw who can do it.

But, you can't just compare Federer's 2014/15 matches against Djokovic with this. Mainly because of the difference in level of Djokovic's ground game. There is visible decline in Djokovic's ground game now when compared to those 2 years...he is no longer able to dominate the rallies like how he used to before, for example, he was playing ok against Kyle in first set and half but he was also passive and was getting overpowered by Kyle before Kyle totally lost his way....I think that decline in groundgame would probably give the edge to Roger in this match if it happens in the final. I am much more confident of Roger beating Rafa if they meet in the final.
 

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Discussion Starter #8
Roger looked imperious going into the 14/15 finals. That 15 semifinal against Murray was orgasmic... and we all remember what came next. Whereas Djoker looked very much beatable prior to those finals. Those 2 raise their games when playing Fed in the biggest matches and Non-battle hardened Fed won’t be able to respond. He would have been better off with some tougher competition for the war that is coming.
 

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The only one coming through that half is Nole, and he'll have to beat Nadal. If he does that, how can anyone say that he doesn't deserve to win the whole thing?

But one problem with OP's analysis is the assumption that Roger won't be tested. He will. Raonic always peaks for him, and Anderson may also peak.
 

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Roger looked imperious going into the 14/15 finals. That 15 semifinal against Murray was orgasmic... and we all remember what came next. Whereas Djoker looked very much beatable prior to those finals. Those 2 raise their games when playing Fed in the biggest matches and Non-battle hardened Fed won’t be able to respond. He would have been better off with some tougher competition for the war that is coming.
No, not really.

For all you know Federer would have faced a "tougher" opponent in the SF, be slightly off, and lost the match.

That's the thing, really. If you peak at just the right time, you'll win. If you dip, then you'll lose. All relative to your opponent of course, but both these players are capable of beating each other, it's not a one-way street. Who's to say that Djoker won't dip in the final if he makes it, especially since his physical attributes have declined since then?
 

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If he beats Nadal in the SF, he deserves to win it all regardless of the finalist
No he doesn't.

He still has to win the final first. That's why it's called a final. A semi-final is not a final.

Otherwise what is the point of having finals, let's do a round robin system instead.

There are many sporting teams in history who do well - dominate - the entire season, only to fall at the final hurdle because they didn't play as well as their opponent, got into a winning position and choked, whatever.

No, whoever wins the final, deserves it.
 

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Novak is back he will be in the final... and federer has a problem with novak in slam finals novak refuses to loose.. if federer does not find his 2017 backhand his 2017 aggression he will loose in the final to novak..

ALl fed fans know based on what we have scene novak is back.. and now the truse test comes. how an federer 2.0 do against novak.. IF only it was 2017..
 

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Novak is back he will be in the final... and federer has a problem with novak in slam finals novak refuses to loose.. if federer does not find his 2017 backhand his 2017 aggression he will loose in the final to novak..

ALl fed fans know based on what we have scene novak is back.. and now the truse test comes. how an federer 2.0 do against novak.. IF only it was 2017..
Well from what we heard, the changes Fed made to his game during his long break were not for Nadal but for Djokovic. Lets finally see if it pays dividends.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
Roger looked imperious going into the 14/15 finals. That 15 semifinal against Murray was orgasmic... and we all remember what came next. Whereas Djoker looked very much beatable prior to those finals. Those 2 raise their games when playing Fed in the biggest matches and Non-battle hardened Fed won’t be able to respond. He would have been better off with some tougher competition for the war that is coming.
No, not really.

For all you know Federer would have faced a "tougher" opponent in the SF, be slightly off, and lost the match.

That's the thing, really. If you peak at just the right time, you'll win. If you dip, then you'll lose. All relative to your opponent of course, but both these players are capable of beating each other, it's not a one-way street. Who's to say that Djoker won't dip in the final if he makes it, especially since his physical attributes have declined since then?
Because we have seen time and again that Nole elevates his game when facing Roger in big finals. I’m not in Nole’s Head but I always got the feeling that he resents the love that Roger gets from crowds and has extra motivation to raise his game and beat him when it matters most regardless of their respective pre-final forms.
 

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Because we have seen time and again that Nole elevates his game when facing Roger in big finals. I’m not in Nole’s Head but I always got the feeling that he resents the love that Roger gets from crowds and has extra motivation to raise his game and beat him when it matters most regardless of their respective pre-final forms.
Yeah, years before now.

Circumstances are different.
 

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Discussion Starter #19
Because we have seen time and again that Nole elevates his game when facing Roger in big finals. I’m not in Nole’s Head but I always got the feeling that he resents the love that Roger gets from crowds and has extra motivation to raise his game and beat him when it matters most regardless of their respective pre-final forms.
Yeah, years before now.

Circumstances are different.
I certainly hope you are right... sadly I think I will be forlornly saying I told you so come Sunday
 

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If he beats Nadal in the SF, he deserves to win it all regardless of the finalist
Sorry, poppet. No-one "deserves" to win a title. If you are good enough, you win it. Besides, after debacles like FO 2 or is it 3 times and US 3 or four times i.e. GS that Novak was going to waltz to a win, I'd have thought his fans would be more cautious. Should they meet, Fed will win three sets to none... Of course, it will rain, so it won't count and you fans can continue to cherry pick Novak's many losses to Roger. :bigcry:
 
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