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Discussion Starter #1
2.5 months to go before the first round ...


As intro, I'd like to quote one of the greatest French historians and demographer, Emmanuel Todd:


"If common Euro tariffs are not possible, then the best solution would be to get out of the Euro. And hence, the tragedy is that among the 'big' candidates, Marine Le Pen would be the only one to propose a viable economic programme." :D


There Will Be Blood ! :angel:


Discuss
 

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I doubt any candidate will exit the euro, except the extreme right.

Socialists will win unfortunately.
 

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if the socialist party wins, the euro is doomed. hollande is not gonna put up with the kind of steps merkel is trying to implement. actually i doubt he'd even come close to implementing any austerity rules for his own country (which desperately needs them).

hollande will piss off merkel, merkel will retaliate by cutting agricultural subsidies. hollande will form a coalition to block germanic (ger+ned+fin+aus+slo+baltics) economic policies, the euro will cease to exist.

so yeah, in a nutshell, bring on hollande! :)
 

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Come up with a new name Rainer, more than half of those countries are not Germanic. :lol:

I hope Hollande wins for a variety of reasons, but I'm skeptic. I don't think he's charismatic enough.
 

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okay, call it "nordic" then. you get my point.
Why not call it "coalition of governments from responsible countries that know the meaning of the word accountability"?

I'm allowed to say that you see. :D
 

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yeah to some extent you're better off than me, wording-wise. ;)

but anyways, like i said, i don't believe the southern european countries' lack of accountability, if you will, is what got them into the current mess. artificially low interest rates did. with the economic history of fringe countries like greece or portugal in mind, why did ANYONE believe they would all of a sudden come to their "northern european" senses? they've never acted responsibly, from a german or dutch point of view. from their own point of view, they always have - as the possibility of a self-inflicted develuation had been obvious the back-up plan. it's been a political move since ages, widely respected even among economists.

well, within the emu, that major remedy is gone for good. so i guess in the end the demise of that terrible straitjacket has virtually no downside, for no country, no part of the continent, apart from maybe a short-term liquidity crisis.
 

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yeah to some extent you're better off than me, wording-wise. ;)

but anyways, like i said, i don't believe the southern european countries' lack of accountability, if you will, is what got them into the current mess. artificially low interest rates did. with the economic history of fringe countries like greece or portugal in mind, why did ANYONE believe they would all of a sudden come to their "northern european" senses? they've never acted responsible, from a german or dutch point of view. from their own point of view, they always have - as the possibility of a self-inflicted develuation had been obvious the back-up plan. it's been a political move since ages, widely respected even among economists.

well, within the emu, that major remedy is gone for good. so i guess in the end the demise of that terrible straitjacket has virtually no downside, for no country, no part of the continent, apart from maybe a short-term liquidity crisis.
The fact that southern european countries have been switching on the print-a-thon every time they've found themselves unable to pay their debts does not mean it is the best way to go. The northern european way is better. Analysis, hindsight, austerity, competitiveness. The first three are structural, and the last one is dependent on them.

The emu was, from the get go, a challenge to the southern economies: either you wake the fuck up, or you're not going to be able to keep up. I fear they might have realised too late. Some might say things couldn't have gone any other way, that cultural values are too deeply ingrained and that that's the way it has to be. But look at countries like Slovakia, or Estonia. They have managed to hold their own precisely by implementing strict austerity policies and being smart in their decision making.
 

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weren't countries like spain or portugal catching up big time in the 90s - without the euro? i don't know how greece or italy were doing but i guess the picture wasn't any different. the south used to come to terms with their structural currency woes over centuries, why not keep it that way?
 

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weren't countries like spain or portugal catching up big time in the 90s - without the euro? i don't know how greece or italy were doing but i guess the picture wasn't any different. the south used to come to terms with their structural currency woes over centuries, why not keep it that way?
Spain had 24% unemployment in 1995 (even higher than now!). There might have been some comparative progress, but the gap was always there. And the gap is conspicuous and significant, too significant to be ignored or to accept it as the satisfying status quo.
 

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still, you're not gonna get that kind of economic revolution by force. it's just not going to happen, that much is clear as of now.

and back on topic, france, under socialist rule, will definitely veto any pro-austerity legislation that comes out of brussels and directly impacts sovereign policy-making. for some reason sarkozy (i mean the real sarkozy) is laying low for the time being, but chances are holland will not go down without a hell of a fight. anyone can rile up the greeks, the italians and the spanish in the current political climate, basically merkel has been the odd man out since 08.

and then what? there's just no way the euro can survive such a perfect storm. neither merkel and her silent supporters up north nor the southern fringe is gonna step back.
 

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Weakest field of all time. New low for French politics. White vote is the right vote.
 

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It seems like a weak field because Sarkozy has been acting like a socialist. So now the socialists don't know how to oppose him. They probably agreed with most of the decisions he made.
 

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still, you're not gonna get that kind of economic revolution by force. it's just not going to happen, that much is clear as of now.
Certainly. That's why I want the Euro and the EU as it is to end.

and back on topic, france, under socialist rule, will definitely veto any pro-austerity legislation that comes out of brussels and directly impacts sovereign policy-making. for some reason sarkozy (i mean the real sarkozy) is laying low for the time being, but chances are holland will not go down without a hell of a fight. anyone can rile up the greeks, the italians and the spanish in the current political climate, basically merkel has been the odd man out since 08.
I'm not so sure Hollande will put up such a fight... something tells me he'll cooperate.

and then what? there's just no way the euro can survive such a perfect storm. neither merkel and her silent supporters up north nor the southern fringe is gonna step back.[/QUOTE]

It seems like a weak field because Sarkozy has been acting like a socialist. So now the socialists don't know how to oppose him. They probably agreed with most of the decisions he made.
This is true. And I suspect it wasn't an unconscious move by Sarkozy.
 

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Certainly. That's why I want the Euro and the EU as it is to end.
you want the european union to end as well? :eek:

to me, that's probably the best cooperation agreement europe has come up with ever. the euro sux and is gonna keep dividing nations, but the union used to work properly over the last decades. you might wanna mix it up a bit, swoop in and reform a few programs or policies, but still, i'm very much in favor of the union.
 

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you want the european union to end as well? :eek:

to me, that's probably the best cooperation agreement europe has come up with ever. the euro sux and is gonna keep dividing nations, but the union used to work properly over the last decades. you might wanna mix it up a bit, swoop in and reform a few programs or policies, but still, i'm very much in favor of the union.
I wholeheartedly agree, that's why I said the EU as it is. :cool:

The freedom of trade and movement the EU has implemented is the cornerstone on which Europe has the potential to unite and progress.

But, as I said in other threads, I believe the whole problem about the European project is that it has largely been done top-down, instead of bottom-up. That is why the whole EU bureaucracy has to be thrown into the bin. The EU needs structural reforms, and it needs them now.
 

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like what? the dissolution of the parliament in its current form? at least that's what i understood from your posts in other threads ("bureaucracy" etc.). what kind of bottom-up approach could be viable in reality? there's just no way around somebody being in the upper echelon trying to organise the huge bunch of different mentalities that is europe.

i think reforming actual policies should be the top priority.
 

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like what? the dissolution of the parliament in its current form? at least that's what i understood from your posts in other threads ("bureaucracy" etc.). what kind of bottom-up approach could be viable in reality? there's just no way around somebody being in the upper echelon trying to organise the huge bunch of different mentalities that is europe.

i think reforming actual policies should be the top priority.
The whole representative system needs to be torn down and built again from scratch.

Begin by creating single lists for the European Parliament for the whole EU, instead of the current system, where every country votes for their national lists from their national parties, which then get together with affine parties from other countries and form a parliamentary group. Create common European parties/lists and common European candidates.

Make the EU Commission, or however we'd like to call the reformed executive branch, directly elected. This of course problematic, since dual elections are typical of presidentialist or semi-presidentialist systems and the most common system in Europe is the parliamentary one. If my first suggestion is fully undertaken, we can let this one go.

The European citizens cannot feel attached to nor feel they are accountable for the decisions made in Europe and Strasbourg if they don't feel like they have elected the people who are supposed to represent them.

In short, make the EU a European Union with a European agenda, not a gathering of national sides with national agendas playing give and take.
 

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Discussion Starter #19
I doubt any candidate will exit the euro, except the extreme right.

Socialists will win unfortunately.
My prediction is that "extreme right" candidate Marine Le Pen will make it to the second round but then the theatrical "Fascist" thread will make her opponent (whoever it'll be) win.

I even doubt either Hollande or Sarkozy will make it to the second round. There's a great political despair in the French population.

But I agree the next President won't exit the euro and that's their tragedy. Once Greece and Portugal had exited it, euro'll be far too high for the French and that will be a disaster.


Actually the French don't just need to exit the Euro but also the EU. Every decision they have to make goes against the Maastricht Treaty and the EU general rules. Concerning their public services, their agriculture, their industry, their foreign policy, their immigration policy, etc. But no candidate suggests that, except very unknown ones.

That's the Gaullist in me speaking. :angel:
 

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People advocating the exit of the euro (for France) are not serious and even quite dangerous. Backlashes of this decision would be terrible for France.
 
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