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Discussion Starter #1
With Rafa easily winning Rome, he has in my opinion reasserted himself as the favorite to win RG. Here are the odds on who will when the FO calculated by Radish.

1. Nadal- 35%
2. Thiem -20%
3. Federer- 15%
4. Tsitsipas -10 %
5. Zverev- 5%
6. Del Potro- 5%
7. Cilic- 3%
8. Isner- 2%
9. Anderson- 2%
10. Nishikori- 2%

Rest of field- 1%
 

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Rafa -------------- 65%
Djokovic ---------- 20%
Thiem ------------- 14%
Rest of the field -- 1%

One of Rafa, Djokovic, and Thiem will win RG, and no one else will. Let's separate the man who has won 11 RGs and has beaten his archrival convincingly most recently from the rest, he is in a league of his own.

The three named players have already won a clay title each this clay season, and Fognini, the 4th winner this season, is a clownini.
 

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Discussion Starter #10
He pulled out of RG? Darn. That’s a shame. Always fun to watch big servers play on clay.
So why not including Novak Djokovic? You think he will pull out or has 0% chance?
I didn’t forget about Djokovic I just only included those players who have at least a 2 percent chance to win RG. If I had made this list yesterday I would almost certainly have included Novak, but after he got bageled and breadsticked by Nadal today it’s kind of hard to justify me giving him at least a 2% chance to win the FO.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
Rafa -------------- 65%
Djokovic ---------- 20%
Thiem ------------- 14%
Rest of the field -- 1%

One of Rafa, Djokovic, and Thiem will win RG, and no one else will. Let's separate the man who has won 11 RGs and has beaten his archrival convincingly most recently from the rest, he is in a league of his own.

The three named players have already won a clay title each this clay season, and Fognini, the 4th winner this season, is a clownini.
Oh yeah I forgot about Fognini. Perhaps he has a deep run in him too.
 

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He pulled out of RG? Darn. That’s a shame. Always fun to watch big servers play on clay.
So why not including Novak Djokovic? You think he will pull out or has 0% chance?
I didn’t forget about Djokovic I just only included those players who have at least a 2 percent chance to win RG. If I had made this list yesterday I would almost certainly have included Novak, but after he got bageled and breadsticked by Nadal today it’s kind of hard to justify me giving him at least a 2% chance to win the FO.
Fair enough, bro.
 

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Since this admittedly funny troll thread has somehow become an earnest prediction thread:

Nadal 30%
Djokovic 25%
Thiem 15%
Fognini 10%

Tsitsipas 6%
Zverev 3%
del Potro 3%
Federer 2%
 

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Depends where Thiem falls to.
 

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My personal feeling:

1. Nadal - 40%
2. Djokovic - 30%
3. Dominic - 20%

The rest - no-one above 3%.

And as Budadiii said - much will depend on the draw. Not just Dominic but there are a few other dangerous floaters who can push and tire the top favourites before the business end of the tournament.
 

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Nadal would be close to 50% vs The Field, no doubt about that after Rome.
But Nole still is a strong 2nd, followed by Thiem and maybe Tsitispas.
The rest are < 2% imo.
 

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For me, it looks something like this, with the betting odds in parentheses:

Nadal - 40% (2.5)
Djokovic - 20% (5.0)
Thiem - 12.5% (8.0)
Tsitsipas - 7.5% (13.3)
Zverev - 5% (20.0)
Federer - 5% (20.0)
Fognini - 2% (50.0)
Nishikori - 2% (50.0)
All 0.5% to 1% - DelPo, Coric, Monfils, Cecchinato, Schwartzman, RBA, Verdasco, FAA, Lajovic
 
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