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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Doubt this price will be around for long (fair odds approx. 2.75 imo):

Djokovic over Federer @ 3.50 - seen very little AO (and nothing of Nole in 2008), but, for me, Federer will HAVE to step up his game to get through this one. Djokovic is a worthy world #2 hard court player, and it is reasonable to think that a good serving performance and well-oiled ground strokes can enable him to keep this match tight at the very least. Can't give Nole less than 40% chance here.
 

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Yep, Djoko for me as well.

Fed is there for the taking and Djoko won't choke like so many others do against Fed.
 

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Djokovic @ 3.7 after watching Federer today
 

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Are you lot gonna be brave and actually put alot of money on djoko or will it be a fun bet for most of you?

Its take a brave man/woman to bet against federer at this stage even if he has flattered to decieve.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 · (Edited)
Depends how you interpret "brave." Put it this way, if your average stake is £1,000, I wouldn't be putting any more than that on it. If, in this scenario, being "brave" involves unloading £3,000 on Djokovic, I'd call that "foolish." But everyone is different.

For me, anyway, I have a fairly low stake on it (2008 average stake is 0,965 units; this bet = 0,40 units)...never have been all that good at fading Federer/Nadal/Djokovic, and I care to try this "strategy" even less these days. However, as we saw last year, there are some guys who can hit unbelievable odds.


Care to elaborate? :lol:
 

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As much Djokovic is playing way better than Federer, it's just hard to imagine Federer losing on a Grand Slam outside clay.

Maybe because the last time it happened was three years ago and Federer choked big time.

And if that choke didn't happen, the last time he would have lost at a Grand Slam outside clay would be at USO'03! :eek:

No bet for me. The logical bet would be Djokovic, but I just can't bet against Federer. At least until he starts losing on Grand Slams outside clay again.
 
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Problem here for the Djokovic backers is the way Federer steps up in the business end of the slams.

I've always felt Djokovic's best chance against Federer is in the best of 3 scenario. Give me the same price on any surface in a Masters event and I'd be unloading but best of 5 scenario I'm not so sure, well not this year anyway.

IMO this will be the USO final all over again, leading into the match many gave Djokovic a real shot especially after his Montreal success preceding it.
 
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Andre♥;6479822 said:
No bet for me. The logical bet would be Djokovic, but I just can't bet against Federer. At least until he starts losing on Grand Slams outside clay again.
Same thoughts I believe it will occur in this year's USO though.

Having said that it would be good to see the faker win tomorrow, just for a change :zzz:
 

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If he's learned from his experience at the US Open then Djok has a great chance here. He was the better player in the 1st set but choked every time an opportunity cam his way including *6-5 and 40-0. I think he's the type of guy who will have benefitted from that. Remember his first Master's final last year? He went out v Nadal in Indian Wells looking nervous and got totally schooled. A couple of weeks later he beat Nadal on the way to winning Miami where he hammered Canas in the final.

I haven't been overly convinced by Fed here either. It's not so much his game more his whole demeanour. He's basically been a whinging prick so far. Crying about Hawkeye talking too long, crying about his opponents taking too long to challenge and then making the most absurd challenges himself as a tactic. Yeah it's on record that he doesn't like the system but he's much worse here and it probably stems from the fact that he's frustrated with his level of play.

Anyway, I'm not writing him off by any means. I'm not a complete dumbass, Someone puts a gun to my head and demands I pick the winner then I'm going with Federer but Djokovic worth a play on value alone although I appear to have missed some of it looking at the current price (3.4 or so).

Probably best to ignore me here anyway. It's been a tough tournament. I don't think I've made a single bet that I would consider stupid with the benefit of hindsight but I'm still about 15 units down.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
Andre♥;6479822 said:
No bet for me. The logical bet would be Djokovic, but I just can't bet against Federer. At least until he starts losing on Grand Slams outside clay again.
Yeah but when he starts to lose, the odds against him surely wouldn't be so high? :p
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
never have been all that good at fading Federer/Nadal/Djokovic, and I care to try this "strategy" even less these days.
GSM Federer already...had my chance with Tsonga. No way this one wins too. :lol:


Andre♥;6481441 said:
No, but I like to play safe! :p
I'll reiterate what swish said to me: "You big pussy!" :ras:
 

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Ouch looks like i'm the odd one out but i have to go in what i believe

Federer to win in straight sets 3-0 8/5

Pova to win in straight sets 8/13


Please feel free to call me mad for thinking Fed in straight sets but i really believe it :)
 

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Ouch looks like i'm the odd one out but i have to go in what i believe

Federer to win in straight sets 3-0 8/5

Pova to win in straight sets 8/13


Please feel free to call me mad for thinking Fed in straight sets but i really believe it :)
I think Djokovic will lead in at least one of the sets with break so that will make the odds higher, the logical thing is to lay it and back later when(if) Djokovic is leading
 

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I think Djokovic will lead in at least one of the sets with break so that will make the odds higher, the logical thing is to lay it and back later when(if) Djokovic is leading
Yep thats true good point
 

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Its always overwhelming when you see a top ranked player (esp. #2) fall to an unseeded opponent, especially in straight sets. Reading these posts, it seems that alot of people saw the potential in Tsonga to cause a potential upset. On the contrary, there were others who felt Nadal would outwill and outgrind Tsonga.
As bettors, I think there are a few things we need to take away from this match. Firstly, we CANNOT underestimate the power and importance of a BIG SERVE. Its just so much easier to play the game, when you have that dominant serve. If you can hold your own serve with relative ease, it allows you to focus and expend more energy on breaking your opponents serve. Also on key points when you're down a break point or two, its a huge advantage if you can ace out of it or have the confidence to set up a 1-2 punch with a big serve. In this match (I think it was the third set) when Tsonga was down 15-40, BAM BAM-- game over!! Think about how demoralizing that must be to your opponent. Same thing happened to David Ferrer against Djokovic. Nole just kept coming up with big serves on key points. Ferrer on the other hand had to fight for every point! Look at players like Roddick- 23 titles.. Huge serve, less than mediocre game. Think about it... What would roddick be without his serve.
Second, and this is especially important if you bet relatively bigger than your bankroll permits, we CANNOT just bet on a match based on how it looks on PAPER. Those tennis fans who saw Tsonga play knew what he was capable of.. That he is not Cilic- This stage will probably not affect him.. He takes the crowd in and uses it to his advantage. We saw the fire power in him, the maturity, and the DESIRE to win.. On paper, ofcourse NADAL is the better player. And on clay (or maybe grass, though i doubt it), the result would have been drastically different. But Nadal hadn't impressed me at all going into this match.. Simon shouldve won the first set, but Nadal outwilled him rather than outplaying him.. Nieminen had his chances.. Mathieu was hurt.. How can we bet Nadal with THOSE BS ODDS with this information in hand? I know this is in hindsight, but I think those of us that did could've made better choices just by making sure we looked at every angle and WATCHED as much tennis from these two guys as possible. Nadal's matches were on TV, but I had to resort to ESPN 360 to watch the rest of the players.
Tomorrow is a HUGE match between Federer and Djokovic. I hope all of us can make sound, UNBIASED decisions, put our love for the players aside when we make our bets, and enjoy our profits.. Say NO to feeding Bookies!! GL ALL
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
Second, and this is especially important if you bet relatively bigger than your bankroll permits
You make it sound like this is the norm for many people?


How can we bet Nadal with THOSE BS ODDS with this information in hand?
I think most people realised that this was a match where one should back Tsonga or stay away (and, of course, maybe just trade it instead). Generally, one can find value in any odds, but this was one such occasion where there was NO value in 1.30s. Forgive me, but I'm struggling to see your point here.


I know this is in hindsight, but I think those of us that did could've made better choices just by making sure we looked at every angle and WATCHED as much tennis from these two guys as possible. Nadal's matches were on TV, but I had to resort to ESPN 360 to watch the rest of the players.
The average person has a day job, family and other commitments...also time zones can be a problem.


Welcome to the forum btw.
 
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