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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Minar to beat Fognini @ 2.3

Whilst I am not the biggest fan of Minar, he has been in some excellent form this week, recording victories over Starace and Berlocq. Fognini on the otherhand I have not been impressed with - he has some problems getting his first serve in and has committed a number of foot faults. He just about got past washed up Vanek in the first round and beat Montanes in the 2nd who clearly had some problems - served 9 double faults. Fognini was serving at 44% vs Montanes - while the Spaniard was not fit enough to take advantage, it won't be the same vs Minar.

Will add some more when Marseille lines come out.
 

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Aren't you going too far by that? You have a myriad of posts and look at your attitude! Who do you think you are to have a right to be so abusive? I hope the moderators take some actions on this.

Let me get back to my own business:

Andy Murray vs Nicolas Mahut

It's starting to look like a darkhorse race in Marseille as the first two seeds (Djokovic and Gasquet) already ousted and Murray has now a better chance to add another indoor title to his career. He had a good indoor season last year as he had captured two titles in San Jose and St. Petersburg and lost to Robredo in final of Metz. Before facing sterner tests he has to get past unseeded Nicolas Mahut in quarter final. Mahut has also took his part in the upsets of the Open 13 by defeating 5th seed Juan Carlos Ferrero in 2nd round. That was a two and a half hour duel which ended in a final set tiebreak. Even though Ferrero won more points (105 to 104) Mahut's strong service game has once again helped him as he fired 18 aces and won %86 of his first serve points. On the other hand Murray had to come back from a set deficit to win against Wawrinka in 2nd round. He had some concentration lapses throughout the match and served poorly especially in first set. He had excluded himself from his nation's Davis Cup matches last weekend due to a knee problem and has been criticized by everyone there including his own brother Jamie. I think this debate is bothering him mentally here. We could expect to see a similar scenario in this quarter final match. Mahut can collect some free points on first serves and put some pressure on Murray's service games and wait for his opposition to have his moments. Also the parisian crowd could be another annoying factor for the Brit. I can't see Murray winning easily here so i'll take the 5 games handicap offered by bet365.

Pick: Mahut +5 Games
Odds: 1.72 (bet365)
Stake: 8/10
 

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G Simon to win @2.00 against P-H Mathieu

I think Mathieu will do more mistakes so I am simply going for the champ, and its difficult to hit winners against Simon.
 

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Almugro over Volandri (mugro ain't Coria)
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Troicki over Smeets ( :rocker2: )
Beck over Luzzi (no doubt)
Petzschner over Vemic (just keep your head cool headcase)
Koubek over Chardy

I know I've sticked more to challengers these days, but these matches look reall okay for me, just the odds differ at each local bookie.
:wavey:
 

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Ancic to beat Soderling @ 4/5 / Ancic to win 2-0 @ 7/4

Can someone tell me why the bookies think this is an even match up, Ancic should win this comfortably.

Mahut + 5 @ 8/11

Once again my british bias is telling me Murray will win this match but + 5 on big serving mahut is too good to turn down.

Simon to beat Mathieu @ 5/4

I was really impressed with simons victory over Djokovic, normally Novak just outgrinds most players (federer included) but Simon had the patience and consistency to break him down and the same tactics should work against Mathieu.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Adding:

Mathieu to beat Simon @ 1.74

PHM holds a 2-0 record over Simon - one on hard and one on clay. He should like the style of play that Simon provides as he is not a big server or doesn't hit many winners so the match falls on Mathieu's racket and in the last year he has shown he can cope with this pressure. Simon despite his win over Djoko I don't think is 100%. The fact that he was taken to 3 sets by a tanking Djoko says something IMO and according to some, he is suffering from illness.
Mathieu's serve has been firing this week - although Simon will test his serve more than Gicquel and Llodra did. Mathieu has also shown he is mentally there this week by winning 4 consecutive tie breakers.
Basically the match belongs on Mathieu's racket and if he performs anywhere near his best, he will win this easily.

Baghdatis to beat Youzhny @ 1.95

Baghdatis looks much happier and fitter this year. He has beaten two dangerous indoor opponents so far - Clement and Karlovic without having to go to a tie break. He is at his best playing indoors as his performance last year showed - winner in Zagreb, runner up in Marseille and semis in Paris and Basel. He will be looking to defend the finalist points he won here last year and with Djokovic and Gasquet knocked out, he now has a great chance of winning the title.
Youzhny looked to be troubled by some shoulder problem yesterday against Benneteau. Probably much to do about nothing but Benny should have really taken at least a set yesterday but kept in choking on the big points. This is a big couple of weeks coming up for Youz as he defends his title next week in Rotterdam and his finalist points in Dubai the week after. Bad performances in them tournaments could see him tumble down the rankings. His attention now might be turned to them two tournaments now he has defended the quarter final points from here last year.
Whatever motivation he has, if Baggy plays like he has done in the previous two matches and especially if he serves how he has done - 25 aces and was serving at 72% yesterdat, then he will be tough to beat.
 

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if u guys use bet365 for a handicap +5 games, it is actually a +4.5 game bet
I know but its still a decent h/cap, the worst i would expect from mahut is one loss of serve in each set, that could result in a 6-4 6-3 but aslong as Murray doesn't dominate from the start a 7/6 6/3 is acceptable.
 

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well good luck to you, just have in mind that Murray is one of the best returners on the tour so a double break in 1 set is possible
 

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well good luck to you, just have in mind that Murray is one of the best returners on the tour so a double break in 1 set is possible
Believe me I don't underestimate murrays abilities but for a period yesterday he was awful against stan, i think he lost 7 straight games in a row, no way he can be trusted with a -5 handicap.
 
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Aren't you going too far by that? You have a myriad of posts and look at your attitude! Who do you think you are to have a right to be so abusive? I hope the moderators take some actions on this.
You got to take things around here with a grain of salt. Whilst most things in the gamblers area here is acceptable as based on the posts in the livescore thread here, things like bashing other members won't be tolerated.

Good luck with Mahut ;)
 

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Minar @ 2.21
Volandri @ 2.4
Ginepri @ 2.34
Spadea @ 2.21
Nishikori @ 1.83
Youzhny @ 1.94
Ancic @ 1.88
 

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BAGHDATIS over Youz @2.00, 5 units
I expected bigger odds for the parisien Baggy

MATHIEU over Simon @1.60, 8 units
unbreakable PHM deserves semi
 

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well good luck to you, just have in mind that Murray is one of the best returners on the tour so a double break in 1 set is possible
I think what you're trying to say is that Murray delivers more bagels and breadsticks than my local bakers shop :lol:

I always steer clear of handicap betting on his matches since he's capable of dropping a set and still easily covering a handicap.

But I agree that there is some angle there on Mahut so GL all.
 

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SPADEA over Querrey @2.20, 5 units
Querrey struggled to beat GGL (remember? the worst tennis player in the tennis history...), that's all. So Gangsta Vinnie in sf. easily.

LJUBICIC over De Voest @1.30, 10 units (E.London challenger)

7-6 6-4.
 

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hello

i have at my lical bookie 3.5 hendicap for Andy and took it for 4/10 stekes

true that he has a problem with his serve and the surface is pretty fast which allow mau slice backhand and visits to the net...

but i am willing to take chanses i feel that yesterday match with stan boost his comfidence nad mau style of play whithout agression form the baseline will matchup andy just fine...

he can control most of the rallies and put some pressure on mauhut serve
he knows how to play with serve and volley players amd i am willing to wisk 4 units....need just one break if andy serves first
 

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and Mario will have the adge vith hiss volley skills...

soderlings strong groudstrokes will be defended and long marios balls to the corners and run to the net game sholud lead soderling to errors..
 
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