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Dear MTF users, I've been sick of some of posts lately, they've seemed repetitive to me. So, as an answer to one of the prime users, doubletrollt, I'll try to summarize the situation around the draws and especially Novak Djokovic.

I don't think that the friend of KiAO Rafito can land in Djokovic half any time soon, though, because the last time Nikeito was with Djokovic at non-RG slam was way back in 2007., never landing in Djokovic half at USO thereafter, never at Wimbledon and never at AO, but it is just coincidence, no. -FIRST PART

Also it's mucho better for Federer to get Nadal&Simon instead Cilic&Tsonga, no, or Nadal&Ferrer instead of Nishikori&Raonic if Rafito gets to no.8., and muy mucho better for Nadal and Murray too, no.

That is why the brothers in Nike Fedalito, have been together in the same half opposite to peak Djokovic at USO/AO since 2012 and at Wimb. since 2013, no, but it's just coincidence too, no. - SECOND PART

Just do it (coincidentally) at the next USO and AO too; 'cause we want 5-setter Djokovic/Wawrinka no. 5 and no. 6 at QF/SF again, because the last USO Nishi spoiled the party for the perfect 5-setters in five consecutive halfs Djokovic/HCStanimal at USO/AO 2013-2015, not counting USO'12 when Wawrinka was not Stanimal and retired in the third set against Djokovic. - THIRD PART

Can you imagine Stanimal-Nadal USO/AO QF or Stanimal-Olderer, or Nishi-Nadal, Nishi-Olderer ? or even Cilic-Nadal, Cilic-Olderer, not very interesting for tennis and fans, no.
Let's summarize his draws and his seeding in the SF (he hasn't been lower seeded than 4th, that's why SF) since 2008.

AO: In 2008 Djoko King got nr. 1 seed Fed (tougher), 2009 nr. 2 seed Fed (easier), 2010 nr. 1 seed Fed (tougher), 2011 nr. 2 seed Fed (easier). 2012-14 could've not met him and got nr. 4 Murray (who had looked easier to beat before the tournament than Federer), nr. 4 Ferrer (Lol, the second option was USO Goldray), nr. 3 Ferrer again (Christ that's a tough semifinal, almost Gasquet like, in another half Murray again, what a surprise), 2015 got nr. 4 seed Stan. So he got the higher seed 3 times out of 8 attempts with the tougher opponent before the tournament 3 out of 8 times.

RG: 2008 got nr. 2 seed (tougher), then nr. 2 seed (easier), then nr. 2 seed (tougher), then nr. 3 seed (tougher), then nr. 3 seed (tougher), in 2013 he got nr. 3 seed (tougher), in 2014 he got nr. 4 seed (easier), this year he got nr. 3 seed (tougher). He got the tougher opponent 6 out of 8 times and the higher ranked player 4 out of 8 times.

Wimbledon: For our supreme leader, the Brits served in 2008 nr. 1 seed Fed (on par with Nadal), in 2009 nr. 2 seed (tougher), then nr. 1 seed (easier), then nr. 3 seed, in 2012 he got nr. 3 seed again (both times Federer tougher opponent than Murray, no problem admitting it), then nr. 4 Ferrer (instead of Federer as nr. 3 seed), last year he got nr. 3 seed Murray (instead of Federer as nr. 4 seed), and this year he got Stan as nr. 4 seed. So he got the tougher opponent 3 out of 8 times , but two opponents were on par and the higher seed 5 out of 8 times.

USO: Djoko King got in 2008 got nr. 2 seed RF (easier), then nr. 1 seed Fed (on par, Nadal was winning everything with Fed in a very tough slump, but Fed was the fourth time champion), then nr. 2 seed Fed (easier), then nr. 3 seed Fed (tougher), in 2012 he got nr. 4 seed Ferrer (again Murray, the eventual winner and much accomplished player in the second half), then finally nr. 3 seed Murray (finally, the other one was Ferrer), then nr. 3 seed Stanley (again, tough draw, the other one was Ferrer). So he got the higher seed 4 out of 7 times and the tougher opponent before the tournament 3 out of 7 times, 1 on par.

Since AO 2008, Djokovic has drawn nr. 1 seed 5 times, nr. 2 seed 8 times, nr. 3 seed 11 times, nr. 4 seed 7 times. He has been nr. 1 seed 13 times, nr. 2 seed 5 times, nr. 3 seed 10 times, nr. 4 seed 3 times himself.


FIRST PART
Since 2008, Nikeito could've been drawn to Novak's side at AO 5 times, but he hasn't been. At RG 5 times, he has been drawn 4 times. At Wimbledon he could've been there drawn 5 times, but he hasn't been drawn there. He also could've been drawn to Novak's half twice at US Open since 2008, but he hasn't been. So, out of 17 attempts, Nadal has been drawn to Djokovic's side of the draw 4 times. That's around 25% of success, it's very low. If you believe in draw fixing, this is one of the best examples, Fed-Nadal-Djokovic-Murray seeding from 2008 to 2013. When you look at it as just a seeding and not a player behind it, the truth is different. He has drawn the higher seed 16 out of 31 times, that's something above 50%. So number-wise, everything is in normal.
So we have 2 solutions: Either to blabber about draw fixing with a weird draws around Fed/Rafa/Novak/Andy (but it isn't something unprecedented, 25% is still believable), or look at the numbers without the players and see that's everything is in norm.

SECOND PART
Now, let's get to another problem, AO/USO draws since 2012. I'm writing from the draw fixing perspective. Let's start with AO: In 2012 only Federer could get drawn to Djokovic and he had been much tougher opponent before the tournament for the Serb than Murray, you can't deny it. In 2013 he couldn't get neither Fed nor Rafa and he got fucking Ferrer instead of Murray, who had been much tougher opponent, again, you can't deny it. In 2014, he could get only Fed, who was after severe back problems as nr. 6 seed, instead he got Stanley, I believe we can agree that Stan was much tougher opponent. This year he could get only Nadal, but he got Stan, who was again much tougher opponent. So, since 2012, Djokovic could've got drawn Federer and Nadal combined 3 times, hasn't got them on any occasion, but got 2 times tougher opponents instead.

Wimbledon: 2012, Federer was drawn to him, Nadal could've not been drawn, 2013, both could've been drawn, but no, he got fucking Ferrer instead of Fed, who was much easier opponent, and Bendych instead of Nadal, who beat him at RG. Last year, he could've got drawn only Fed, but he got Murray, on par opponent with Fed (very bad first part of 2014, but he had been a defending champion). This year, he could've got drawn only Rafael, but got Cilic (nr.1 seed can't get nr. 10 seeds in the R16, so I picked QF), who was tougher opponent. So, he could've drawn Fed and Rafa 5 times, got Fed once (beaten by him) and got easier opponent 2 times.

USO: 2012, neither Fed nor Rafa could've been drawn to his half, he got Ferrer in the semifinal instead of Murray, in 2013, Backerer got drawn to Nadal's quarter, meanwhile Djokovic got JMDP, who was tougher for him after the Wimbledon match that year. 2014 came and any Dull or Fraud could've not been drawn :confused: He got Stan instead of Ferrer, so the tougher opponent in SF. So, out of 3 US Opens, Djoko King could've got drawn Fedalito only 1 time, and he got tougher opponent on that occasion instead.

And finally, RG: In 2012 he got Federer (tougher than AM), 2013 got Nadal (tougher than DF), 2014 got Federer (easier than SW), 2015 got Nadal (toughest out of these 4), the other one could've not been drawn to him. So out of 4 occasions, he got them every time. This is very weird, and I think Djokovic has been draw fixing, because he wanted to get Nadal before the final, because he knew he shits himself there every time. And on occasions, when Nadal could've not been drawn, in the semis he got Fed, who was once tougher opponent in 2012 (Murray the other one) and once much easier opponent than Goatrinka in 2014.

Conclusion: In this period of time 15 slams have been drawn, Novak could've drawn Fedal at 12 slams, but only once both could've been drawn in the same half with Novak, that was Wimbledon 2013. Overall out of 13 attempts, Novak has got drawn Fedalito 5 times, that's around 30%. When you look at it from the draw fixing view, he's got seemingly tougher opponent before the tournament 9 out of 15 times. 60% tougher opponent, bad luck, but still nothing unusual, over 10 times I'd agree, it would seem like draw fixing. However, he could've got drawn Fedalito at AO/USO 4 out of 8 slams played. That's 50%, but neither of them actually met him on any occasion. This can lead to a conclusion that draw has been working lately for Fed and Rafa.

THIRD PART
Now the situation with Stan: Before AO 2013, he hadn't been famously frighting opponent, he'd got roasted against Fed in 2011 and it had been his best result, so you can cut that out. Then RG, which had been Stan's most consistent tournament and everyone thought that he'll do something after his magnificent AO. Which half did he get? Nadal's, Djoko King got Chokeschriber. Wimbledon 2013, Stan's worst surface, so it didn't matter for the organisers, but he got to Nadal's, big ballbasher that reminded them someone, who had taken down Nadal year ago, maybe a clear road for Murray? US Open 2013, Stan's best slam on par with AO so far, Stan got to the R16 with Berdych and then in QF Murray, meanwhile Djokovic got Fognini and JMDP in the QF. So it wasn't a draw against Djokovic, but against Murray as the defending champion actually.

AO 2014, their first clash corresponding their seeding and 8th seed Stan took down 1st seed Djokovic, the organisers fucked it up. Luckily, at the next slam the beast Stan was drawn to Nadal's half. Take that, Dull! Didn't matter, Stan bombed out in the first round and Djokovic literally shat himself in the final. Next was Wimbledon 2014, nobody thought highly about Stan, so why not put him into Fed's quarter, what if he makes another good result. And he did. US Open 2014, another seeding corresponding battle, and Djokovic lost it. But Nishikori beat them both.

AO 2015, another clash according to their seeding, and Djokovic looked like having an upper hand. But right there came the fatal mistake: Djoko King didn't need Stan in his half at RG and that costed him dearly, Clayray could've got him, or Rafito could've slowed him down. And it backfired, the organisers had thought they gave Fed the cakewalk, but it was Stan's cakewalk, which he used magnificently and hammered poor Serb once more. Another slam was Wimbledon 2015, where we all know that Stan after his GS victory in 2014 had been bad the next slam, so why not to give him to Djokovic and give Murray to Fed. Finally a successful one, Gasquet beat him.

So Stan got Djokovic in the QF/SF corresponding to the seeding four times, twice at AO, once at US Open and once at Wimbledon. Nadal got him three times (RG 2013, 2014, Wimbledon 2013), Fed twice (Wimbledon 2014, RG 2015), Andy twice (RG 2013, USO 2013). Nothing weird except for 2014 US Open and 2015 AO draws, where Stan has been seeded in Novak's half both times. On the other hand, Djoko King should know better which player to get in the other part of the draw at RG next time. Raonic/Federer/Tsonga/Gasquet/Bendych half incoming? And let the better ones to kill each other in his half, because he's as good as Dzumhur in the final.

Draw fixing conclusion: Federer and Nadal fixes the draw at AO, Wimbledon, USO, but without much success, only 2 slams from 3 and a half years. On the other hand, they're much much better than Novak, whose problem is winning the RG, where he fails more gloriously every time. Kids, don't fix the draw, because you're better without it. Or be a class above everyone and fuck on the draw.

The different conclusion: It's an uncanny situation about Nadal and in the last 2-3 years even about Federer at AO, Wimbledon and US Open, but it's still believable for me. They've been very lucky not to get to Novak's quarter/half. That AO combination looks bad, but we have only 4 out of 8 examples, still it could be around 25%. However, there's nothing wrong with Djokovic, with respect to draw fixing, he gets tougher draws around 60% of time and around 50% seeding-wise.

Please ventilate your opinions mildly, thank you!
 

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Great post, full of really interesting information and pretty damning statistics. The numbers don't lie. The draws aren't fixed.
 

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FIRST PART
Since 2008, Nikeito could've been drawn to Novak's side at AO 5 times, but he hasn't been. At RG 5 times, he has been drawn 4 times. At Wimbledon he could've been there drawn 5 times, but he hasn't been drawn there. He also could've been drawn to Novak's half twice at US Open since 2008, but he hasn't been. So, out of 17 attempts, Nadal has been drawn to Djokovic's side of the draw 4 times. That's around 25% of success, it's very low. If you believe in draw fixing, this is one of the best examples, Fed-Nadal-Djokovic-Murray seeding from 2008 to 2013. When you look at it as just a seeding and not a player behind it, the truth is different. He has drawn the higher seed 16 out of 31 times, that's something above 50%. So number-wise, everything is in normal.
So we have 2 solutions: Either to blabber about draw fixing with a weird draws around Fed/Rafa/Novak/Andy (but it isn't something unprecedented, 25% is still believable), or look at the numbers without the players and see that's everything is in norm

....
Of course it is "normal" that he was always with Djokovic at his RG backyard and always opposite to him at much more problematic AO/USO/Wimb., since 2008., a big 23,5 %, no, let two best HC players as Djok/Federer 2008-11 and Djok/Stan 2012-2015 always earn their places in the AO/USO final with a SF/QF 5-setter, hopefully against fresh Rafito in the F, no.

So, it is also normal that we know where is he going to land the next USO and AO, as we all knew that he would've been opposite to Djokovic in Wimb.'15 in the easiest Ferrer's quarter (big 12 %, no).

Where will HC Stanimal land at the next USO & AO, after six consecutive Djokovic' halfs there and seven consecutive Fedal's halfs there since 2012 ?

Too bad for Stanimal, we know that answer too and it's normal, no.

Let's just see if Djokovic gets Cilic and Stanimal Nishi or vice versa, because it's big 6% anyway, for Nadal in the opposite half from them, 'cause Nike and Kia cannot be so unlucky to see the-friend-of-AO landing in Djokovic' half and HC contenders Nishi&Cilic in Federer's, can they ?

If Murray beats Federer tomorrow and gets to no.2 before USO, we could witness to a perfectly normal 3 % for Fedal landing in Murray's half and Stan, Nishi, Cilic etc. in Djokovic', because a perfectly normal 3% for Fedal in Djokovic' half and Stan, Nishi, Cilic etc. in Murray' would never be as normal for Nike, Kia & Co. .
 

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good analysis.
 

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Congratulations OP, one of the best comments I've seen here so far ;)

That being said, I didn't read it.
 

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When its always the same guys in the top6-7 of course you dont have many other options. The way the seedings works it seems its fixed.

Fedtarts use to complain. But only about Rafa, now they complain its harder for Federer.
Noletards use to complain when he didnt have an easy path. Now hes nº1 if he gets a hard path it must be fixed.

I never really cared too much about draws for Rafa. If and when he was healthy he would more or less have to go thru 1 or 2 of the big 4.


And just out of sarcasm both groups mentioned above were pissed they got Kohl for the 1st round in Halle and Wimby. Yes hes a tough 1R but come on...
 

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The truth is that the draws just happen and random outcomes are streaky, not perfectly evenly distributed, and all of the fanboys and fucking cretins who take this stuff seriously are nutcases.

absolute nutcases
 

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The real draw fixing is for or against Nadal, Murray, and Federer. Sorry to say but Djokovic is just a means to an end.
 

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The truth is that the draws just happen and random outcomes are streaky, not perfectly evenly distributed, and all of the fanboys and fucking cretins who take this stuff seriously are nutcases.

absolute nutcases
I know that if I were a tournament director who has spent a two million $ on a big name endorsee, I would be a serious nutcase to hand him in a hard draw too.

E.g. There in Swiss they are not nutcases when it is about the money, even if they gave a couple a million $ to poor form Rafito, 'cause they would put contenders in Federer's half so that Rafito plays qualifiers and a 17 y.o. teenager in QF, regretfully failing to win it regardless.

In slams it's not just about trifling couple of million $, though, but about a hundred times bigger amount, that depends of TV audience worldwide and sponsor' income at the end of the year.

The only nutcase who would leave a chance for 100 million $ more at 30-40 % instead of 70-80 % is you, but not CEO of Nike, Kia, big TV stations, slams etc. especially when they all usually have the same wish i.e. the easiest possible path for the players who will make them the most money and we all know who brings the most money in the tennis world for quite some time.
 

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To fix Tennis draws, even over the last 20 years, would involve hundreds of people.

It really is up there along with the moon landing (or lack of it) in mad conspiracy theories.
 

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If there are politics running the draws behind the scenes, it's certainly political. While it is harder to rig than say a reality TV show where the fan favorites that get the viewers automatically "cook" a masterpiece and when they cook something bad they just cut it out of the episode.

The only way I see Tennis being rigged possibly is to ensure the best match ups that will draw in the most viewers. But it's still fair in the sense that everyone has to win in these circumstances and everything in life, even a job interview is a popularity contest in a way. That's just how life works. Deal with it.

If Nole does get the tough draws, he should do something about it. Like play flashier tennis that draws more viewers or talk shit to the media. If he can't be a popular hero and get easy draws like Fedal. Become a heel and they will rig it so he makes the finals and hope he loses. Then once in the finals, he can just win it and be more hated. Then rinse and repeat. lol

I also think that Toni Nadal is an expert in these Tennis politics. Take what you will from that.
 
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