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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
As soon as a player has a weak break point conversion, evreyone calls him a choker,a mug etc...:rolleyes:
but don't you think this stat is given too much importance? I mean in many matches, a player has like 5 or 6 break chances, that's a real weak number to build stats on. Often the other player is just too good on these points and the conversion rate is meaningless.
Another problem is that advantage points aren't played the same as deuce points. Lefties have an edge on advantage because of their wide kicker for instance

Any thoughts?:confused:
 

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also the player facing the break points usually takes a little extra time to pull out a big serve.
 

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It is given too much importance. There are some occasions like Nadal-Murray at RG last year where Murray had more BP chances but still lost. However that's not a sustainable way to win tennis matches. If you're consistently facing more break points than your opponent then you'll lose more matches than you win. Doesn't matter how "clutch" you are.

It's also a very good point about the deuce/ad sides.
 

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Well, certainly a 2/24 or 1/13 BP conversion rate isn't desirable.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Well, certainly a 2/24 or 1/13 BP conversion rate isn't desirable.
desirable is not the question, the question is whether it really represents the player's clutchness (if that word exists) or lack thereof
 

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Well, certainly a 2/24 or 1/13 BP conversion rate isn't desirable.
but 3/18 is still better than 2/2. Yet the latter player is usually seen as more clutch, despite only creating two chances all match.
 

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desirable is not the question, the question is whether it really represents the player's clutchness (if that word exists) or lack thereof
I believe it does to a certain extend.

The break points have a mental zone for themselves and if you are weak there, you would fail most of the time.

You need to find a balance in your aproach between the - "now or never", then go for something crazy and stupid, and the "just hang in there", waiting for the server to overchoke you and lose the point alone.

Think about the BP convertion not only in terms of deuce-adv-deuce-adv (2 BPs), also imagine the possible 40-0 and 40-15 situations on the adversary serve that you might not convert because of brain farts most of the time.

Also think about the fact that the point at 15-30 for the server is just as important as the BP against him, so the main variable is in the head of the returner.

If you get yourself often in position to have BPs (meaning you have enough in your game to win points on return), but you rarely convert them, it most of the time means that you tend to choke, hence take wrong decisions, rather than the server wanking around for 3-4 points, then suddenly becomes invincible.

Obviously a 50% converter is mentally stronger than a 15% one.

On which other part of the game would you be able to define if a player is a choker or not? It's in the clutch moments and BPs are exactly this.
 

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For me it doesn't mean anything on grass when playing a big server. Slow clay is a different story though.
 

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Obviously a 50% converter is mentally stronger than a 15% one.
Not necessarily. A lot of BP conversion percentage has to do with returning well on the ad court. In some sense its a game thing moreso than a mental one. Eg How do you return the opponents best serve on the ad court (since moretimes than nought thats the side where you get your chances).

Novak Djokovic has one of the best BP conversions on tour, and a lot of it is b/c he has such an incrediblely steady backhand return. In particular, a lot of it has to do with how well your 2nd serve return is too!
 

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Listen to me !
If Davydenko was good at that stat ... well you can remember yourself ...
 

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Not necessarily. A lot of BP conversion percentage has to do with returning well on the ad court. In some sense its a game thing moreso than a mental one. Eg How do you return the opponents best serve on the ad court (since moretimes than nought thats the side where you get your chances).

Novak Djokovic has one of the best BP conversions on tour, and a lot of it is b/c he has such an incrediblely steady backhand return. In particular, a lot of it has to do with how well your 2nd serve return is too!
If you're gonna have BPs, you'd already returned a few times from ad court..

We're not talking about one point here, but an average over hundreds.

And we're not talking about 80% convertion, but the usual good 50% compared to the bad 15%.

So there are no excuses - choking is the word.

If you can win a point a 15-0 or 30-15, then it's the same at 40-30. Except if in your head it isn't. That's all
 

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I would like to see a stat which tells you how many breaks the player managed to secure out of games where he had BP chances. I think that might give us a better idea regarding BP success rate for players.
exactly

sometimes you have stats like 2/9, but the 7 BPs were wasted in one game in which the player eventually broke

in that case, of course the stat isnt enviable, but it cant be a question of wasted chances
 

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If you've watched the game at 6-5 Berdych - Nadal, you would see a practical illustration of what means BP conversion = choking/mental strength
 

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I too would like to see a stat for game conversation when having breakpoint(s). Clearly 0-40 is not as important as 30-40
 

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As soon as a player has a weak break point conversion, evreyone calls him a choker,a mug etc...:rolleyes:
but don't you think this stat is given too much importance? I mean in many matches, a player has like 5 or 6 break chances, that's a real weak number to build stats on. Often the other player is just too good on these points and the conversion rate is meaningless.
Another problem is that advantage points aren't played the same as deuce points. Lefties have an edge on advantage because of their wide kicker for instance

Any thoughts?:confused:

Berdych 2/13
 
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