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USO 2011: Best opportunity for a surprise winner?

  • Yes

    Votes: 9 34.6%
  • No

    Votes: 17 65.4%
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Lurrrkin'
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Discussion Starter #1
I've been hearing alot about this years USO being a great opportunity for Murray considering Noles fitness being under question and Nadal and Fed struggling for whatever reason of late. Murray is widely considered a slam headcase, so all four of the favourites this year are under major scrutiny, which is the first time the major favourites have seemed so vulnerable in a slam for a long long time.. possibly even before Federers reign began. Usually there is at least one person if not two or three who looked like a clear favourite. Djokovic would have been that person if his fitness didn't suddenly become suspect.

With all four favourites being in a period of uncertainty for their own reasons and other recent GS winners/finalists like Del Potro and Soderling also being in questionable fitness/form, is this the best chance everyone else has had to cause of huge shock and claim a Grand Slam in recent years? USO 2009 also produced a shock with Del Potro winning, but I personally don't think the favourites were this questionable back then. Could this be the last time a shock winner is such a great possibility in this era or will this be the trend from now on (very open slams)? Back to the days when guys like Thomas Johansson grabs a slam?

If it were to happen this year, I can't look past Tsonga, possibly Berdych.
 

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The only ones who have a slght chance are Tsonga,Monfils,Fish and Berdych.
 

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If Nole's shoulder really is a problem and Rafa can't find his top form again, then I could see this as being the best chance other guys (in this case Fish, Tsonga, Berdych, and a few others) will have had to win a Slam since Fedal's rise in 2005 really.
 

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No, Nadal is defending his title this year.
 

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Could this be the last time a shock winner is such a great possibility in this era or will this be the trend from now on (very open slams)? Back to the days when guys like Thomas Johansson grabs a slam?

If it were to happen this year, I can't look past Tsonga, possibly Berdych.
Depends on what rates as a shock winner. Even Thomas Johansson that people often bring up as a huge fluke winner had won a Masters and multiple HC titles before his "run". He had experience from big finals. More than Tsonga and Söderling who both had runs at becoming shock winners in AO 2008 and RG 2009.

I think you normally need a Masters and a few titles too be ready for that big GS Final. I think Tsonga and Berdych are good picks because they have all been in a GS Final before now and know the drill. But at this stage they aren't bigger shocks than Murray, Soderling that has been to 3 and 2.

What's more important is probably the path to the Final. For example players can't let the top1/2 guy cruise through the tournament. Everyone needs to do their part vs Djokovic/Nadal and force them to play long matches and soften them up for the taking. These 5 seters takes a lot out of the players and if a top seed cruises in easy 3 set matches while the potential shock winner has to battle in 4/5 seters than the odds for a shock winner is low because he will be spent by the time of the SF/F.
 

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Lurrrkin'
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Discussion Starter #9

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Lurrrkin'
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Discussion Starter #10
Depends on what rates as a shock winner. Even Thomas Johansson that people often bring up as a huge fluke winner had won a Masters and multiple HC titles before his "run". He had experience from big finals. More than Tsonga and Söderling who both had runs at becoming shock winners in AO 2008 and RG 2009.

I think you normally need a Masters and a few titles too be ready for that big GS Final. I think Tsonga and Berdych are good picks because they have all been in a GS Final before now and know the drill. But at this stage they aren't bigger shocks than Murray, Soderling that has been to 3 and 2.

What's more important is probably the path to the Final. For example players can't let the top1/2 guy cruise through the tournament. Everyone needs to do their part vs Djokovic/Nadal and force them to play long matches and soften them up for the taking. These 5 seters takes a lot out of the players and if a top seed cruises in easy 3 set matches while the potential shock winner has to battle in 4/5 seters than the odds for a shock winner is low because he will be spent by the time of the SF/F.
I agree about Johannson.. I considered him overly underrated before he won that GS. He was at his best able to beat the best, and he proved it a few times prior to his Aus open win. Though admittedly Safin went on a mental walkabout in that Final, and the only person likely to do that in the Final out of the top 4 is Murray.

There's only really a few nowadays who can consistantly compete against the top 4, so looking at it that way we know they'll most likely have to beat at least 2 of the top 4 to win the whole thing... and who is capable of that? I can count the players on one hand really.
 

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Stan Wawrinka
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For me: The Rest starts with ATP No. 5.

First, I thought: Yes.
Then I made my FITD.
Now I say: No.

The draw is the problem.

The two best players outside the Top 4 at the moment are FISH und TSONGA.
They will meet in 4th round.

I think this could be the best match of the tournament. Fish or Tsonga will win in 5 sets.

Federer will win his quarterfinal against the tired winner of the match-up Fish-Tsonga.

If you count Murray as "the rest":
Then yes.

Murray has a good chance to beat Nadal finally at a slam. And he can beat Djokovic as well.
 

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I would say Australian Open 2012, or Australian Open in general.
 

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Murray: May not be my best chance to win Slam
Ticker - Saturday, August 27, 2011

Andy Murray does not agree with John McEnroe’s assessment that the U.S. Open is his best chance to win a major. The world No. 4 has reached three Grand Slam finals and was unable to win a set in any of them. Murray just coming off a title run in Cincinnati.

"It's a silly thing to say, because it's not one tournament," Murray told reporters. "It will be Federer is not playing well and Rafa is struggling and Djokovic's shoulder is sore. But I know come Monday they'll all be fine. I have a chance of winning for sure. Whether it's my best chance or not, no one has a clue like that. And someone like John who has played thousands of matches probably knows that one bad day and you can put yourself out of the tournament. And especially towards the latter stages when you're playing against three of maybe the three greatest players ever. You're going to have to play an incredible event to win. So I feel like I'm ready to do that. But to say it's my best chance, no one knows."
:spit:
 

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I'd like to see Mardy Fish win the whole damn thing. Would be great for the sport.
I would love that too. And it would be great for all of his work to pay off in a huge way. But someone else made a great point (Johnny Mac said it on CBS today too). He's not getting through Tsonga, then Fed, then Nole, then Nadal/Murray. Tsonga's not running that gauntlet either. One or more of the top 4 will have to lose early for someone else to win it.
 

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He definitely has his chances.

Federer is in olderer mode at the moment.

Nadal is questionable, could pick up an injury and lose in the process to someone like Ferrer.

Won't have to meet Djokovic until the finals. If Djokovic becomes injured before the finals, Murray will have a gift.

But first, he'll have to take out his first challenge, Wawrinka, who always gives him a tough time.
I think he'll exact revenge this time.
 
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