Joined
·
54 Posts
Djokovic has a lot of things going for him to finish number one at the end of 2021 and to hold the no 1 ranking for most if not all of 2021. Obviously, he has to play well and continue gathering points, but his advantages are these:
1. He currently has a 2180 ATP point advantage over Nadal, 2905 advantage over Thiem, 3560 advantage over Medvedev, and a 5400 advantage over Federer.
2. Djokovic starts off the year with 3165 guaranteed points due to his fast start in 2020 and these will count towards the 2021 year end (Thiem has 1355 which is the second most and Nadal 1100).
3. Djokovic plays well on all surfaces and so should get points on hard, grass, and clay courts. No one else to this point has been nearly as consistent. Nadal is weaker on hard courts, Medvedev on clay, Thiem on grass (so far), and Federer is recovering from surgery.
4. Djokovic has two stretches in the 2021 year (assuming it happens close to scheduled) where he can gather a lot of extra points compared to other contenders. This is March through May where he can gain a lot of points at IW, Miami, and MC and the US Open until the end of the year.
4. It seems that there are four players in the world right now who are very close to each other in level depending on surface and their form. In addition to the top four, Federer, Tsitsipas, and Zverev are not far behind. It may be a somewhat unique situation in the age of the Big 3.
5. While one could argue that so many people near the same as Djokovic may overtake him and Nadal for #1 and #2, it may be actually the opposite as these other high-quality players may split the points, and if Nadal can continue to score a lot of clay court points and Djokovic gather more points on all surfaces, it still may be Djokovic and Nadal as #1 and #2 again.
Obviously, motivation and being injury free can alter these predictions dramatically.
Please discuss my reasoning not the question of whether the points are legitimate or not in the age of COVID 19. Whether we like it or not, it is what it is and the ATP has deemed it to be legitimate and all the players had input into what was fair to all parties.
1. He currently has a 2180 ATP point advantage over Nadal, 2905 advantage over Thiem, 3560 advantage over Medvedev, and a 5400 advantage over Federer.
2. Djokovic starts off the year with 3165 guaranteed points due to his fast start in 2020 and these will count towards the 2021 year end (Thiem has 1355 which is the second most and Nadal 1100).
3. Djokovic plays well on all surfaces and so should get points on hard, grass, and clay courts. No one else to this point has been nearly as consistent. Nadal is weaker on hard courts, Medvedev on clay, Thiem on grass (so far), and Federer is recovering from surgery.
4. Djokovic has two stretches in the 2021 year (assuming it happens close to scheduled) where he can gather a lot of extra points compared to other contenders. This is March through May where he can gain a lot of points at IW, Miami, and MC and the US Open until the end of the year.
4. It seems that there are four players in the world right now who are very close to each other in level depending on surface and their form. In addition to the top four, Federer, Tsitsipas, and Zverev are not far behind. It may be a somewhat unique situation in the age of the Big 3.
5. While one could argue that so many people near the same as Djokovic may overtake him and Nadal for #1 and #2, it may be actually the opposite as these other high-quality players may split the points, and if Nadal can continue to score a lot of clay court points and Djokovic gather more points on all surfaces, it still may be Djokovic and Nadal as #1 and #2 again.
Obviously, motivation and being injury free can alter these predictions dramatically.
Please discuss my reasoning not the question of whether the points are legitimate or not in the age of COVID 19. Whether we like it or not, it is what it is and the ATP has deemed it to be legitimate and all the players had input into what was fair to all parties.
