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Discussion Starter #1
There is no competition.

Every time he loses a match in the indoor season, MTF predicts a long slump. Never happened.

There is no competition on HC and grass. None.

Just name one player.

I get it, recency bias makes MTF say "mEdvEDev". The guy fluked a very weak WTF.
 

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Everyone said the same in 2011.
Everyone said Novak wouldn't win 25 slams in 2011? They were correct then, good on them. Let's see if he makes it to 20 first.

He got utterly destroyed at RG, outplayed by PCB at the USO, barely scraped by an improving Thiem at the AO (and lost to him at the WTF) and absolutely blown off the court by Medvedev at the WTF.

Novak's backhand isn't the weapon it once was and his fitness is below that of Thiem and Medvedev without a doubt. Tsitsipas isn't going to be easy for him to beat either and Sinner is on his way up. Nadal will hammer him on clay at the very least.

He can still win slams but he is not winning 2-3 slams a year for 4 years at age 33.
 

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Discussion Starter #8
Novak's backhand isn't the weapon it once was and his fitness is below that of Thiem and Medvedev without a doubt. Tsitsipas isn't going to be easy for him to beat either and Sinner is on his way up. Nadal will hammer him on clay at the very least.

He can still win slams but he is not winning 2 or slams a year for 4 years at age 33.
Your thesis would be relatively on point, but name one player that can consecutively stop him. Can you?

Medvedev is hot and cold, hasn't proved anything at slams and he is almost 25.

Thiem, you say. He could barely beat a choking Zverev. In fact, he needed a historic choke from his opponent.
 

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Your thesis would be relatively on point, but name one player that can consecutively stop him. Can you?

Medvedev is hot and cold, hasn't proved anything at slams and he is almost 25.

Thiem, you say. He could barely beat a choking Zverev. In fact, he needed a historic choke from his opponent.
It doesn't have to be any one player; there are enough players that he will lose more often than not against all of them in series.

Thiem had a harder time playing as the favorite than as the challenger and you can see that when you look how he has played Novak. He is 5 of 7 against him and nearly took the AO as well which would have made it 6 out of the last 7.

Medvedev has been consistently strong on hardcourt. Look at the 2019 summer hard court season; he was better than Novak there too. He beat him and only a strong Nadal was enough to hold on.

Tsitsipas is a threat and will improve. So will Sinner. Guys like PCB and Bautista Agut frustrate him and sometimes beat him.

It doesn't even have to be any single player; a run with a few tough matches is enough and Novak hasn't looked physically invincible but in fact a bit frail at times.

No way he somehow makes it through 4 seasons of multiple slam wins with the physical form he has and the players challenging him. He's more likely to develop an injury than he is for that to happen.
 

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Discussion Starter #10 (Edited)
It doesn't have to be any one player; there are enough players that he will lose more often than not against all of them in series.

Thiem had a harder time playing as the favorite than as the challenger and you can see that when you look how he has played Novak. He is 5 of 7 against him and nearly took the AO as well which would have made it 6 out of the last 7.

Medvedev has been consistently strong on hardcourt. Look at the 2019 summer hard court season; he was better than Novak there too. He beat him and only a strong Nadal was enough to hold on.

Tsitsipas is a threat and will improve. So will Sinner. Guys like PCB and Bautista Agut frustrate him and sometimes beat him.

It doesn't even have to be any single player; a run with a few tough matches is enough and Novak hasn't looked physically invincible but in fact a bit frail at times.

No way he somehow makes it through 4 seasons of multiple slam wins with the physical form he has and the players challenging him. He's more likely to develop an injury than he is for that to happen.
Why is it so hard for you to admit that this forum has always been wrong about Djokovic?

Every single time he lost, this forum predicted his long slump. Never happened.

The 2020 season was rather strange in terms of scheduling, we can agree on that. Djokovic won a slam and two masters and played another slam final. Is Thiem even close to that achievement?

The thing is, Djokovic might be in a slump now, I am not denying that. All I am saying is that almost beating Djokovic at the AO doesn't count. Nobody cares about almost beating the opponent.

Also, what is this weird obsession with Sinner? He hasn't won anything of note.
 

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Why is it so hard for you to admit that this forum has always been wrong about Djokovic?

Every single time he lost, this forum predicted his long slump. Never happened.

The 2020 season was rather strange in terms of scheduling, we can agree on that. Djokovic won a slam and two masters and played another slam final. Is Thiem even close to that achievement?

The thing is, Djokovic might be in a slump now, I am not denying that. All I am saying is that almost beating Djokovic at the AO doesn't count. Nobody cares about almost beating the opponent.

I don't predict a long slump for Novak and I never have. I am speaking for myself not for thousands of posters. He'll be a top contender but not the only one and not enough to do what you predict.

The season was strange for scheduling, sure. And it helped hide his relative decline a bit as well. A longer season will be harder on him, not easier. Moreover, Nadal and Thiem at their normal clay level without scheduling irregularities stop him from winning Rome, any day of the week. So forget about that too. All the top guys playing in Cincinnati in a normal year are going to be harder to stop for him too.

I am not saying Djokovic is in a slump. I am saying he will have a few great runs and plenty of tough matches. He won't touch anything on clay if Nadal and Thiem are reasonably fresh and healthy and on hard, he now has another 4-5 guys who are not going to just wilt against him.

Even at his best tournament, the AO, Novak barely squeaked by Thiem who is most definitely improving and has company. An unkind draw would be all it takes for that to go the other way.

No way he stays healthy and that much ahead of his peers at 33-34 for another 4 years of multiple slam seasons.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
I don't predict a long slump for Novak and I never have. I am speaking for myself not for thousands of posters. He'll be a top contender but not the only one and not enough to do what you predict.

The season was strange for scheduling, sure. And it helped hide his relative decline a bit as well. A longer season will be harder on him, not easier. Moreover, Nadal and Thiem at their normal clay level without scheduling irregularities stop him from winning Rome, any day of the week. So forget about that too. All the top guys playing in Cincinnati in a normal year are going to be harder to stop for him too.

I am not saying Djokovic is in a slump. I am saying he will have a few great runs and plenty of tough matches. He won't touch anything on clay if Nadal and Thiem are reasonably fresh and healthy and on hard, he now has another 4-5 guys who are not going to just wilt against him.

Even at his best tournament, the AO, Novak barely squeaked by Thiem who is most definitely improving and has company. An unkind draw would be all it takes for that to go the other way.

No way he stays healthy and that much ahead of his peers at 33-34 for another 4 years of multiple slam seasons.
I agree with much of what you have written here but you miss an important aspect.

Djokovic has clearly not been focusing on Masters even for a few years. He has won all of them.

The focus is only on slams.
 

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I agree with much of what you have written here but you miss an important aspect.

Djokovic has clearly not been focusing on Masters even for a few years. He has won all of them.

The focus is only on slams.
If that's the case and we only take the slams, it's not looking much better. The AO was a real battle for him and he easily could have lost it. I think we can see now that he knows Thiem and Medvedev can outlast him too which is also partly why he was likely so annoyed at the USO with the prospect of losing a set to PCB. He isn't just a machine you can count on anymore. Tough matches seem to impact him down the line.

At RG, 2 guys are significantly above him and I don't think a few others are that far way either. I don't see that happening barring some major upsets in normal conditions. At the USO, plenty of guys alone or in combination from tough earlier matches can take him out. Let's not forget that Nadal has won there more than Novak has.

Wimbledon, ironically the least natural tournament for him in many ways is the real odd-man out because fitness isn't as big an issue and due to the lack of more strong grass courters (all the other strong grass courters have a combination of age and injury issues). I don't know what will happen at Wimbledon but I do know Novak isn't winning the next 4 of those. He was clutch as hell in 2019 there but he didn't look like the better player for most of that match if we are honest. In fact, he was even strangely flat for much of it.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
If that's the case and we only take the slams, it's not looking much better. The AO was a real battle for him and he easily could have lost it. I think we can see now that he knows Thiem and Medvedev can outlast him too which is also partly why he was likely so annoyed at the USO with the prospect of losing a set to PCB. He isn't just a machine you can count on anymore. Tough matches seem to impact him down the line.

At RG, 2 guys are significantly above him and I don't think a few others are that far way either. I don't see that happening barring some major upsets in normal conditions. At the USO, plenty of guys alone or in combination from tough earlier matches can take him out. Let's not forget that Nadal has won there more than Novak has.

Wimbledon, ironically the least natural tournament for him in many ways is the real odd-man out because fitness isn't as big an issue and due to the lack of more strong grass courters (all the other strong grass courters have a combination of age and injury issues). I don't know what will happen at Wimbledon but I do know Novak isn't winning the next 4 of those.
Again, I feel you forget a few important dynamics.

You say Thiem had him on the ropes at the AO. Absolutely true.

Nadal had him on the ropes as much as anyone at Djokovic's peak, in a six-hour long epic. Wawrinka even beat him.
Have any of these left a mark on his AO dominance since then?
 

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Discussion Starter #15
On a given day, many guys can give him fits even at AO, but that doesn't translate into a shift in dominance.
 

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Again, I feel you forget a few important dynamics.

You say Thiem had him on the ropes at the AO. Absolutely true.

Nadal had him on the ropes as much as anyone at Djokovic's peak, in a six-hour long epic. Wawrinka even beat him.
Have any of these left a mark on his AO dominance since then?
The thing is, you're forecasting 4 years out and 8 slams minimum. What are the trends? Are there now more or fewer players capable of doing what Thiem and Nadal have done or at least somethng close to it like Medvedev or Tsitsipas? Are they younger or older than Novak? Is Novak showing increased stamina and stability or decreased?

Novak didn't win 2 of the last 4 AOs either let's recall. There are reasons for that and they might recur, even without a better player stepping up.

So that dominance you reference has him 2-4 in the past 4 years at the AO and his closest challenger there is clearly fitter and improving along with several others whereas I don't think anyone who is being serious thinks Novak is improving both his game and his fitness at this point.

That's just at the AO. At the USO, it's way more open and Nadal has had more success. At RG, unless Nadal and Thiem are gone, he's not winning. So over time, I will take the field and Novak's own age and body against him winning 8 slams. Any day of the week.
 

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On a given day, many guys can give him fits even at AO, but that doesn't translate into a shift in dominance.
For what I say to be true, there doesn't even have to be a Nadal or a Novak. Just enough guys who can hang and sometimes beat him and for a couple of them in a row to play him at any given slam.

In the meantime, Novak will also slow down even more over 4 years and we have seen that this year and last as well. He hasn't blown people off the court for the most part and 2 of his last slam wins were very tight 5 setters where he was not the best player for significant stretches of the matches. Just add another harder match before one of those matches and see how that might change.

We now have more guys who can do that. And we have more evidence of Novak wilting.

He can still be the favorite at a slam and not be the favorite against the entire field.
 

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Discussion Starter #18
The thing is, you're forecasting 4 years out and 8 slams minimum. What are the trends? Are there now more or fewer players capable of doing what Thiem and Nadal have done or at least somethng close to it like Medvedev or Tsitsipas? Are they younger or older than Novak? Is Novak showing increased stamina and stability or decreased?

Novak didn't win 2 of the last 4 AOs either let's recall. There are reasons for that and they might recur, even without a better player stepping up.

So that dominance you reference has him 2-4 in the past 4 years at the AO and his closest challenger there is clearly fitter and improving along with several others whereas I don't think anyone who is being serious thinks Novak is improving both his game and his fitness at this point.

That's just at the AO. At the USO, it's way more open and Nadal has had more success. At RG, unless Nadal and Thiem are gone, he's not winning. So over time, I will take the field and Novak's own age and body against him winning 8 slams. Any day of the week.
Fair enough.

Thanks for the detailed answer!
 

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Over the last 3 years Djoko wins about 1.7 slams annually. He will need to keep this form for the next 5 years (until he's 38) and hope that younger players pursue blogging careers.
Seems legit.
 

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Everyone said Novak wouldn't win 25 slams in 2011? They were correct then, good on them. Let's see if he makes it to 20 first.

He got utterly destroyed at RG, outplayed by PCB at the USO, barely scraped by an improving Thiem at the AO (and lost to him at the WTF) and absolutely blown off the court by Medvedev at the WTF.

Novak's backhand isn't the weapon it once was and his fitness is below that of Thiem and Medvedev without a doubt. Tsitsipas isn't going to be easy for him to beat either and Sinner is on his way up. Nadal will hammer him on clay at the very least.

He can still win slams but he is not winning 2-3 slams a year for 4 years at age 33.
What are you talking about? Outplayed by PCB? Really? Set 1 wasn't even in the books, you actually think he would have lost that match had he not hit Ellen?

"Barely scraped by Thiem at AO" but lost to him at WTF - because Thiem didn't barely scrape by there did he? Wasn't he down 4-0 in the Final TB?
 
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