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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Due to the COVID-19 rule of tournaments keeping points till 2021 edition or if players only better their score on the tournaments that do manage to be played in 2020, how much of a chance does anyone have to throw Djokovic off the #1 throne?

Due to Nadal winning Rome and RG, the next tournament he could actually win points and theoretically pass Djokovic is Paris Masters in November?
 

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If Novak wins USO, he is almost guaranteed to finish the year number 1 (and get 300+ weeks at number 1). He can break Federer's weeks at 1 record in March.
 

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I reckon till at least Wimbledon next year
 
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If anyone is going to do it, it will be Thiem, not Rafa

Nadal can gain points only at Paris and YEC, unlikely. While Djoker can gain points everywhere, and Thiem can gain the most points. Thiem lost 1st round in Cincy and USO both last year. If he is going to make a push for #1, needs to be right now, as in THIS WEEK

Djokovic otherwise should be pretty safe until after AO, putting him at 306 weeks
 

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Novak's weeks at number 1 started counting again. He has 283 weeks at number 1 now. 😊
Would be a big upset for him not to take at least 310, so the weeks at #1 record is almost a lock for Djoker

Real question is whether he will get the slam record
 

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I think the weeks at number 1 record is almost guaranteed for Djokovic in early 2021. There are some scenarios where it wouldn't happen, but they really don't seem likely.

The first (and most plausible) scenario is if Djokovic underperforms in "Cincinnati" and USO, while Nadal comes back and wins the ATP finals, or the Paris masters. He could also gain points in AO 2021 (if it happens).

The second scenario is if Djokovic underperforms in New York masters and USO, while Thiem goes on a complete tear, winning the US Open and at least two of the following four tournaments: Roland Garros, ATP finals, "Cincinnati", and Paris Masters.

The third scenario is Djokovic gets injured. Although he woouldn't have to defend any points, the fact that he can't gain any makes it more likely for Nadal and Thiem to overtake him.

But even if one of these scenarios happens, Djokovic could gain back points in Indian Wells and regain the number 1 ranking. And it's not like all of these tournaments will definitely be held...

So it's looking very very good for the record to be his.
 

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I agree, Djokovic is almost guaranteed to reach Federer's record. The only half-way reasonable option to avoid this is if Thiem starts winning everything right now.
I would guess Djokovic remains no 1 at least until Wimbledon next year, especially if AO should be cancelled and he'll keep these points for another year (?).
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Thiem is looking forward to adding the entire Federer fanbase this year. 😂
 

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So despite all of his MTF tools moaning 24/7 after the virus outbreak the new ranking rules will actually ease him adding more weeks at #1. Cool.
 
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